Furlough estimate
05-02-2020, 08:51 AM
#231
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Posts: 840
Leadership is not guessing here. They obviously don't know what will definitely happen, but they have hundreds, thousands, of analysts looking at huge amounts of data in order to inform their decisions. They are not just throwing darts.
Historical precedence does not exist for what is happening here. Previous experiences are likely creating false impressions regarding the limits of what can happen here. We are literally fighting for survival here, and likely will be for quite some time. If they need to furlough 4500 guys on 1 Oct, they will do it.
Historical precedence does not exist for what is happening here. Previous experiences are likely creating false impressions regarding the limits of what can happen here. We are literally fighting for survival here, and likely will be for quite some time. If they need to furlough 4500 guys on 1 Oct, they will do it.
05-02-2020, 09:00 AM
#232
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Posts: 840
It is not..
Guys (and gals..)
This is the first shot across the bow.
Management HAS to play this game.. So we are going to displace all these pilots into the A320/737/Fifi/Guppy fleet? Seriously?
Any of the 756 pilots notice the message that came out yesterday? About the 'possibility' of new open flying in May?!
It's a game. The company is throwing this out there. Will be really funny to see how they manage this when the bid closes.
Wouldn't you have to train the bottom people first due to contractual/seniority rules? So you are going to train people that you are going to furlough on 1 Oct?
Based on this displacement... I get bumped off of my 756 FO seat. Ok. Let me know when I should report to TK in 2021.
I get that displacements are coming.. sure. but this displacement bid (in my opinion) is being done on a WORST CASE scenario based on flying not coming back. I'm seeing it where I live.. people are pretty close to having enough of this crap. Yes, people will continue to get sick and yes, people will continue to die. But the majority of the country wants and WILL start getting back to a new normal. That includes flying.
Do you really believe that our country and economy will not be in recovery mode by June.. July.. AUGUST?
If not, the America that we all know is done. Gone. Replaced by civil disorder.
Stay Strong, Don't give into the FEAR. Stay informed and look at the big picture.
Always
Motch
Guys (and gals..)
This is the first shot across the bow.
Management HAS to play this game.. So we are going to displace all these pilots into the A320/737/Fifi/Guppy fleet? Seriously?
Any of the 756 pilots notice the message that came out yesterday? About the 'possibility' of new open flying in May?!
It's a game. The company is throwing this out there. Will be really funny to see how they manage this when the bid closes.
Wouldn't you have to train the bottom people first due to contractual/seniority rules? So you are going to train people that you are going to furlough on 1 Oct?
Based on this displacement... I get bumped off of my 756 FO seat. Ok. Let me know when I should report to TK in 2021.
I get that displacements are coming.. sure. but this displacement bid (in my opinion) is being done on a WORST CASE scenario based on flying not coming back. I'm seeing it where I live.. people are pretty close to having enough of this crap. Yes, people will continue to get sick and yes, people will continue to die. But the majority of the country wants and WILL start getting back to a new normal. That includes flying.
Do you really believe that our country and economy will not be in recovery mode by June.. July.. AUGUST?
If not, the America that we all know is done. Gone. Replaced by civil disorder.
Stay Strong, Don't give into the FEAR. Stay informed and look at the big picture.
Always
Motch
05-02-2020, 09:04 AM
#233
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,089
It is not..
Guys (and gals..)
This is the first shot across the bow.
Management HAS to play this game.. So we are going to displace all these pilots into the A320/737/Fifi/Guppy fleet? Seriously?
Any of the 756 pilots notice the message that came out yesterday? About the 'possibility' of new open flying in May?!
It's a game. The company is throwing this out there. Will be really funny to see how they manage this when the bid closes.
Wouldn't you have to train the bottom people first due to contractual/seniority rules? So you are going to train people that you are going to furlough on 1 Oct?
Based on this displacement... I get bumped off of my 756 FO seat. Ok. Let me know when I should report to TK in 2021.
I get that displacements are coming.. sure. but this displacement bid (in my opinion) is being done on a WORST CASE scenario based on flying not coming back. I'm seeing it where I live.. people are pretty close to having enough of this crap. Yes, people will continue to get sick and yes, people will continue to die. But the majority of the country wants and WILL start getting back to a new normal. That includes flying.
Do you really believe that our country and economy will not be in recovery mode by June.. July.. AUGUST?
If not, the America that we all know is done. Gone. Replaced by civil disorder.
Stay Strong, Don't give into the FEAR. Stay informed and look at the big picture.
Always
Motch
Guys (and gals..)
This is the first shot across the bow.
Management HAS to play this game.. So we are going to displace all these pilots into the A320/737/Fifi/Guppy fleet? Seriously?
Any of the 756 pilots notice the message that came out yesterday? About the 'possibility' of new open flying in May?!
It's a game. The company is throwing this out there. Will be really funny to see how they manage this when the bid closes.
Wouldn't you have to train the bottom people first due to contractual/seniority rules? So you are going to train people that you are going to furlough on 1 Oct?
Based on this displacement... I get bumped off of my 756 FO seat. Ok. Let me know when I should report to TK in 2021.
I get that displacements are coming.. sure. but this displacement bid (in my opinion) is being done on a WORST CASE scenario based on flying not coming back. I'm seeing it where I live.. people are pretty close to having enough of this crap. Yes, people will continue to get sick and yes, people will continue to die. But the majority of the country wants and WILL start getting back to a new normal. That includes flying.
Do you really believe that our country and economy will not be in recovery mode by June.. July.. AUGUST?
If not, the America that we all know is done. Gone. Replaced by civil disorder.
Stay Strong, Don't give into the FEAR. Stay informed and look at the big picture.
Always
Motch
however, this isn’t just about a US decision. International travel will be impaired for much longer.
also, a lot of large conferences and events have been canceled throughout the fall. They are not coming back on short notice. That will take a serious clip out of business travel.
industry consensus is that the industry will be 30% smaller no matter what.
05-02-2020, 09:10 AM
#234
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2011
Position: A Nobody
Posts: 1,559
These men and women have bills to pay, possibly families to feed and now their near future has almost certainly no possibility of earning at the levels they just enjoyed. Yes it scares the you know what out of them.
My point?
Have some compassion and be thankful for your contractual pay and working conditions you still are blessed with.
05-02-2020, 09:15 AM
#235
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: NB CA
Posts: 451
My UAL bro sent me a text today with some highlights. One of which, verbatim, said “as of October 1st, whatever the demand is down, that’s what our personnel cut will have to be. If demand is down 90%, we have to cut our payroll by 90%.”
That was straight from a UAL guy. Not sure if that’s out of context...perhaps someone here can add some color.
That was straight from a UAL guy. Not sure if that’s out of context...perhaps someone here can add some color.
05-02-2020, 09:32 AM
#236
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,089
you can substitute revenue with a new aid package
you can get creative with cost cutting - 30 hour lines anyone?
but any cost > revenue scenario will not end well sooner or later.
05-02-2020, 09:52 AM
#237
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2017
Posts: 105
I didnt say I had an idea of what would happen or how quickly this will turn around, but that's not how intelligent, logical people make decisions. At this point, it doesnt even matter what the actual load factors are come 1 October because IF we show up on 1 Oct AND loads are still down 90%, AND we still have a full pilot roster, we will go under very quickly. Those ARE the types of numbers and scenarios that leadership can look at and make decisions from. We cannot wait until 1 Oct to see what loads will be and hope theyve improved. In other words, there really isn't much of a choice here, leadership needs to posture the airline to be able to survive IF loads remain down 90% on 1 Oct. That means running massive displacements now and prepping to send guys off to the streets on 1 Oct, if necessary all at once. There is some breakeven point at which we can continue to survive past 1 Oct at various load factors and pilot staffing levels, but if we're not ready to implement those plans in short order starting 1 Oct we will not make it, period. That means we start moving lots of folks now. If demand has recovered by 1 Oct, great, we'll lose a bit of revenue over the short term as we plus back up and unwind the displacements to meet that demand. But if we're not ready to sustain operations at 10-50% load factors for an indeterminate period of time starting on 1 Oct, none of us will have jobs to come back to. Just because we don't know exactly what will happen doesn't mean we just stick our heads in the sand or throw our hands up in the air and joyride into the future.
05-02-2020, 10:19 AM
#238
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Posts: 154
Forgive this stupid question, but is the reading between the lines BQ mentioned indicate the 6801 seniority number is expected to be the junior man? And if your name appears on the Partial Displacements letter of a continuing fleet, and you're below the 6801, that you're gonna get furloughed (assuming this set of projections is correct when we arrive this fall)?
Just trying to make some possible future plans...
Just trying to make some possible future plans...
05-02-2020, 10:32 AM
#239
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: F-16
Posts: 201
Forgive this stupid question, but is the reading between the lines BQ mentioned indicate the 6801 seniority number is expected to be the junior man? And if your name appears on the Partial Displacements letter of a continuing fleet, and you're below the 6801, that you're gonna get furloughed (assuming this set of projections is correct when we arrive this fall)?
Just trying to make some possible future plans...
Just trying to make some possible future plans...
05-02-2020, 10:47 AM
#240
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
Forgive this stupid question, but is the reading between the lines BQ mentioned indicate the 6801 seniority number is expected to be the junior man? And if your name appears on the Partial Displacements letter of a continuing fleet, and you're below the 6801, that you're gonna get furloughed (assuming this set of projections is correct when we arrive this fall)?
Just trying to make some possible future plans...
Just trying to make some possible future plans...
this is completely incorrect. The only thing that 6801 number does is force everyone below that number to go elsewhere.
there is soooo much bad info out already. Be careful with what you read
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