Furlough estimate
05-02-2020, 07:01 AM
#222
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Posts: 840
We shall see...And since the leadership doesn't know any more than me, it's all fantasy. Our leadership has to plan for the worst. Them saying it won't recover quickly is not based in fact. It's a guess. This is just my bet. Why would anybody think April and May will be a good indicator of the future? Lol. I'll be with you shoulder to shoulder my friend. No concessions.
05-02-2020, 07:50 AM
#224
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2017
Posts: 105
We shall see...And since the leadership doesn't know any more than me, it's all fantasy. Our leadership has to plan for the worst. Them saying it won't recover quickly is not based in fact. It's a guess. This is just my bet. Why would anybody think April and May will be a good indicator of the future? Lol. I'll be with you shoulder to shoulder my friend. No concessions.
Historical precedence does not exist for what is happening here. Previous experiences are likely creating false impressions regarding the limits of what can happen here. We are literally fighting for survival here, and likely will be for quite some time. If they need to furlough 4500 guys on 1 Oct, they will do it.
05-02-2020, 08:00 AM
#225
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: It keeps changing.
Posts: 207
Leadership is not guessing here. They obviously don't know what will definitely happen, but they have hundreds, thousands, of analysts looking at huge amounts of data in order to inform their decisions. They are not just throwing darts.
Historical precedence does not exist for what is happening here. Previous experiences are likely creating false impressions regarding the limits of what can happen here. We are literally fighting for survival here, and likely will be for quite some time. If they need to furlough 4500 guys on 1 Oct, they will do it.
Historical precedence does not exist for what is happening here. Previous experiences are likely creating false impressions regarding the limits of what can happen here. We are literally fighting for survival here, and likely will be for quite some time. If they need to furlough 4500 guys on 1 Oct, they will do it.
05-02-2020, 08:37 AM
#227
Don't say Guppy
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Position: Guppy driver
Posts: 1,926
Retirements going forward should reduce the furlough numbers by the time they have to make a hard decision.
United has a mix of old and new planes. The older ones are going away forever. Just like the last 2 times.
The world's globalized supply chain is a complete shambles. Trying to unscrew that will take many months, during which passenger wide bodies may be in high demand to fly cargo below the floor. That might cushion the blow for a few months.
05-02-2020, 08:41 AM
#228
Don't say Guppy
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Position: Guppy driver
Posts: 1,926
I think in 10 years time this will be looked back and called the first fake Pandemic. We don't need a vaccine, we already have herd immunity. Any disease that kills far less than 1%, we already have immunity too as a species.
Novel? It is only new to science, as DNA/RNA testing is very new. Our bodies have seen it before. Unless immune-compromised, most of us brush it off with little or no symptoms.
Novel? It is only new to science, as DNA/RNA testing is very new. Our bodies have seen it before. Unless immune-compromised, most of us brush it off with little or no symptoms.
05-02-2020, 08:42 AM
#229
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: 787 Captain
Posts: 1,512
I think there will be a quick resolution to the WuFlu and we get back to a "normal" world. Unfortunately the damage to the economy is real, and we won't snap back in a V. I would guess a "normal" bad recession furlough. They might plan and train to a 30% furlough, but they can't furlough until Oct 1 because of the PP program.
Retirements going forward should reduce the furlough numbers by the time they have to make a hard decision.
United has a mix of old and new planes. The older ones are going away forever. Just like the last 2 times.
The world's globalized supply chain is a complete shambles. Trying to unscrew that will take many months, during which passenger wide bodies may be in high demand to fly cargo below the floor. That might cushion the blow for a few months.
Retirements going forward should reduce the furlough numbers by the time they have to make a hard decision.
United has a mix of old and new planes. The older ones are going away forever. Just like the last 2 times.
The world's globalized supply chain is a complete shambles. Trying to unscrew that will take many months, during which passenger wide bodies may be in high demand to fly cargo below the floor. That might cushion the blow for a few months.
Our displacement process is expensive and time consuming for the company, so it's not unexpected for them to get the ball rolling early. They can adjust as things change and the future becomes more clear. We've only been shown part of the picture...let's not overreact.
05-02-2020, 08:45 AM
#230
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: 756 Left Side
Posts: 1,629
It is not..
Guys (and gals..)
This is the first shot across the bow.
Management HAS to play this game.. So we are going to displace all these pilots into the A320/737/Fifi/Guppy fleet? Seriously?
Any of the 756 pilots notice the message that came out yesterday? About the 'possibility' of new open flying in May?!
It's a game. The company is throwing this out there. Will be really funny to see how they manage this when the bid closes.
Wouldn't you have to train the bottom people first due to contractual/seniority rules? So you are going to train people that you are going to furlough on 1 Oct?
Based on this displacement... I get bumped off of my 756 FO seat. Ok. Let me know when I should report to TK in 2021.
I get that displacements are coming.. sure. but this displacement bid (in my opinion) is being done on a WORST CASE scenario based on flying not coming back. I'm seeing it where I live.. people are pretty close to having enough of this crap. Yes, people will continue to get sick and yes, people will continue to die. But the majority of the country wants and WILL start getting back to a new normal. That includes flying.
Do you really believe that our country and economy will not be in recovery mode by June.. July.. AUGUST?
If not, the America that we all know is done. Gone. Replaced by civil disorder.
Stay Strong, Don't give into the FEAR. Stay informed and look at the big picture.
Always
Motch
Guys (and gals..)
This is the first shot across the bow.
Management HAS to play this game.. So we are going to displace all these pilots into the A320/737/Fifi/Guppy fleet? Seriously?
Any of the 756 pilots notice the message that came out yesterday? About the 'possibility' of new open flying in May?!
It's a game. The company is throwing this out there. Will be really funny to see how they manage this when the bid closes.
Wouldn't you have to train the bottom people first due to contractual/seniority rules? So you are going to train people that you are going to furlough on 1 Oct?
Based on this displacement... I get bumped off of my 756 FO seat. Ok. Let me know when I should report to TK in 2021.
I get that displacements are coming.. sure. but this displacement bid (in my opinion) is being done on a WORST CASE scenario based on flying not coming back. I'm seeing it where I live.. people are pretty close to having enough of this crap. Yes, people will continue to get sick and yes, people will continue to die. But the majority of the country wants and WILL start getting back to a new normal. That includes flying.
Do you really believe that our country and economy will not be in recovery mode by June.. July.. AUGUST?
If not, the America that we all know is done. Gone. Replaced by civil disorder.
Stay Strong, Don't give into the FEAR. Stay informed and look at the big picture.
Always
Motch
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