Sniper66

unfortunately 2850 got their letters
another 450 maximum I see getting the ax 1/1/2021
and that will be the final number

Ps
expecting another early out to be announced with another 250 taking the early out

Up7997

there’s more restaurants within 1 square mile in nyc then in dfw that will be finished once the cold comes in.

MagooFlew

Very true. But that’s for the good Bullish times. The Bear side of that is “minimize debtholder losses”. Remember they get paid first, they’re not part of the family, and they don’t care about anything else other than getting their money back. So that’s where it gets ugly, and there’s very little any manager can do about to if they don’t have the numbers, despite their best efforts or intentions.

DashTrash

PA, I have no idea where you’re coming from and I have really tried. First, there are a considerable amount of junior pilots that took wide body bids. I am a 6/2014 hire and could’ve held Sparkie or the 777 about 3.5-4 years ago. I could’ve also upgraded in Guppy or Fifi about three years ago. Also, there were pilots that had barely gotten off IOE for their initial airplane and were awarded wide bodies.

You seem to have a point of view of doing ANYTHING to avoid furloughs. While I want every possible reasonable thought investigated to mitigate furloughs. Furloughs are unfortunately going to happen. Selling assets to save jobs is a form of corporate suicide. By that I mean, making permanent decisions to solve a temporary problem. It’s just not smart business!!!

Unfortunately, we all have to take a bite out of the same $h!t sandwich. So suck it up buttercup!!!

DashTrash

I really hope that you’re correct on that would be the limit of the bloodletting!!!

Sniper66

those numbers are for 70% of passengers for summer 2021 versus what we have had summer 2019
very reasonable I would say to assume that percentage

13275 start of the mess
-500 early + 250 additional early outs
​​​​​-500 normal retirees
-3300 total furloughed

8725 active 4/2021
- 950 management / instructors/ LTDs

7775 flying , divide that with 14 pilots per aircraft that United uses equals to 550 aircraft or so in use versus 785 before this mess started that includes the spare and in the shop aircraft


my 2 cents

Hedley

Over a period of two years or so, how many of those early outs would have retired anyway? How would staffing needs change if they were to decide to retire the 757 once the max gets here? A streamlined fleet requires fewer pilots than having something that isn’t. How will business travel be affected over the next few years? Virtual meeting technology is rapidly improving and the younger generation is far more comfortable with it than the older generation. Will business travel recover to what it was, or is there going to be some level of a new normal after this? There are so many variables that seem to change daily, that I have no clue how to speculate accurately what will happen. This is like a rodeo, and I’ve drawn the prize bull. I’m just trying to hold on until the buzzer sounds at my retirement.

Duckdude

Interesting, I was hired in 2007 and my first upgrade opportunity occurred almost exactly 2 years ago. Are you talking about United?

DashTrash

Yup, in SFO. Most junior captain on both of those categories as of vacancy bid 2004V was just over 11,000-11,100. So maybe about 2.5 years ago? Which was at the time, over 1,000 numbers junior to me.

Duckdude

As a 2007 hire, my first opportunity to hold captain anywhere in the system was 1902v (In SFO, as you correctly stated) which was awarded late September 2018, so just under two years ago. I did not take advantage of the opportunity to upgrade though. There was nowhere in the United system that I could hold a Captain seat 2 years ago today.

Not that any of this matters now, a second furlough is more likely for me in the next two years than a Captain upgrade.

Of course I could be wrong about all this, I often am.