Furlough estimate
#163
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2019
Position: B777 CA
Posts: 313
I wonder if the company would honor the agreement to make normal B fund deposits into the accounts of those who take COLA/Voluntary furlough like they do for the guys who take Mil Leave? I strongly believe that will help avoid furloughs. Question: when someone who gets hired and goes on mil leave collecting B fund contributions gets furloughed, do the B fund contributions stop at the furlough date? I would think so but I’ve been wrong about this type of thing before.
#164
My take on this...
I’m a 2172 guy. This comes from a 9/11 perspective.
No one knows how this will play out. Not you, not me, not management. It’s a guess. Do you go optimistic or pessimistic ? After 9/11 we had a series of 2-3 furloughs over 1.5yrs reaching 2172. I was one of the latter furloughs and saw the writing on the wall. Luckily I was still in the USAF Reserve and began working a job about 3 months prior to furlough to go back on active duty. Not what I wanted to do, but what I felt I had to do. When I did that I was able to get a flying job. About a month later those jobs were gone and only non-flying jobs were left. During that timeframe I sat reserve as I’d done for the previous 2.5yrs and flew over 90 hours my last month on reserve because everyone else was using their sick leave. At the time I thought I’d want that sick leave when I came back. About 8 or 9 years into furlough, I was thinking I’d made a mistake in that thought process, but...it was a pride thing...and I was glad to get it back when I came back. I came close to leaving active duty when United called us back around 2006...but luckily I decided to stay in the USAF. It’s funny since I’ve been back, but I can’t tell you how many guys say, “We’ll, it’s lucky you had the military to fall back on.” There was no guarantee! No guarantee they’d take me back...no guarantee I’d be flying...no guarantee I’d be able to reach retirement. I did what I needed to do to take care of the wife and kids.
For you new guys...what to expect.....
First..again, going off my experience....I start with, “Is this worse than 9/11?” I believe it could be. Next, “What manning level is required?” We don’t really know. We want to be able to ramp back up when the market returns. On 9/11 people were afraid to fly because of terrorists. Now, people either won’t have the money to fly, or are afraid to fly because of getting sick. How long will it last...don’t know...6 months..a year? Will we get a second round of Covid next year? Too many unknowns. What manning level will meet United’s needs? 8000-10000? We don’t know.
Here’s my take. If you are in the bottom 2000, look out for yourself and your family. Use this reprieve to Oct 1 to find other opportunities with the knowledge that if you jump too late, those opportunities may not be there. In 2003 when I was furloughed we had a “desk drawer” agreement that if we took other jobs, we would still be recalled. To my knowledge that “agreement” was upheld. I’ll be honest...and I’m not being negative so don’t take it that way...I’m 20yrs hire date with the company and with post merger/seniority integration, I don’t consider myself “safe” from a 3rd furlough. ALPA and management will do what they do.
I laugh when I’ve seen posts on here about pilots not picking up open time while others are on furlough. I was furloughed for 10 yrs. Do I really think that no pilot picked up open time for me?
It’s expensive to park fleets/furlough/bump/displace/retrain. I do have faith that management and ALPA are working an incredibly difficult problem to the best of their ability. That doesn’t mean it will work out in your favor.
Stay calm, weigh your options, take care of yourselves and your family.
My 2 cents...not trying to scare anyone..God bless.
I’m a 2172 guy. This comes from a 9/11 perspective.
No one knows how this will play out. Not you, not me, not management. It’s a guess. Do you go optimistic or pessimistic ? After 9/11 we had a series of 2-3 furloughs over 1.5yrs reaching 2172. I was one of the latter furloughs and saw the writing on the wall. Luckily I was still in the USAF Reserve and began working a job about 3 months prior to furlough to go back on active duty. Not what I wanted to do, but what I felt I had to do. When I did that I was able to get a flying job. About a month later those jobs were gone and only non-flying jobs were left. During that timeframe I sat reserve as I’d done for the previous 2.5yrs and flew over 90 hours my last month on reserve because everyone else was using their sick leave. At the time I thought I’d want that sick leave when I came back. About 8 or 9 years into furlough, I was thinking I’d made a mistake in that thought process, but...it was a pride thing...and I was glad to get it back when I came back. I came close to leaving active duty when United called us back around 2006...but luckily I decided to stay in the USAF. It’s funny since I’ve been back, but I can’t tell you how many guys say, “We’ll, it’s lucky you had the military to fall back on.” There was no guarantee! No guarantee they’d take me back...no guarantee I’d be flying...no guarantee I’d be able to reach retirement. I did what I needed to do to take care of the wife and kids.
For you new guys...what to expect.....
First..again, going off my experience....I start with, “Is this worse than 9/11?” I believe it could be. Next, “What manning level is required?” We don’t really know. We want to be able to ramp back up when the market returns. On 9/11 people were afraid to fly because of terrorists. Now, people either won’t have the money to fly, or are afraid to fly because of getting sick. How long will it last...don’t know...6 months..a year? Will we get a second round of Covid next year? Too many unknowns. What manning level will meet United’s needs? 8000-10000? We don’t know.
Here’s my take. If you are in the bottom 2000, look out for yourself and your family. Use this reprieve to Oct 1 to find other opportunities with the knowledge that if you jump too late, those opportunities may not be there. In 2003 when I was furloughed we had a “desk drawer” agreement that if we took other jobs, we would still be recalled. To my knowledge that “agreement” was upheld. I’ll be honest...and I’m not being negative so don’t take it that way...I’m 20yrs hire date with the company and with post merger/seniority integration, I don’t consider myself “safe” from a 3rd furlough. ALPA and management will do what they do.
I laugh when I’ve seen posts on here about pilots not picking up open time while others are on furlough. I was furloughed for 10 yrs. Do I really think that no pilot picked up open time for me?
It’s expensive to park fleets/furlough/bump/displace/retrain. I do have faith that management and ALPA are working an incredibly difficult problem to the best of their ability. That doesn’t mean it will work out in your favor.
Stay calm, weigh your options, take care of yourselves and your family.
My 2 cents...not trying to scare anyone..God bless.
I think this is much worse than 9-11. Two weeks after that horrific event, people were flying...concerned, watchful, or scared...but flying. Loads were half of their norm.
Now: nearly two months of near-empty planes.
The dilemma for the company and us/ALPA is a dichotomy between current staffing needs, versus post-pandemic training/currency capacity and needs. One extreme, one not.
The duration of this crisis determines which side of the equation gets favored.
#165
I wonder if the company would honor the agreement to make normal B fund deposits into the accounts of those who take COLA/Voluntary furlough like they do for the guys who take Mil Leave? I strongly believe that will help avoid furloughs. Question: when someone who gets hired and goes on mil leave collecting B fund contributions gets furloughed, do the B fund contributions stop at the furlough date? I would think so but I’ve been wrong about this type of thing before.
#166
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2020
Posts: 98
Right. And retreat from globalization is not really a thing because, cheaper labor costs just got cheaper as economies dip and labor supply increases. It might mean additional diversification of manufacturing and supply chains from one particular (cough) country to other regional ones (it’s already starting). But not likely bringin’ it back to the good ‘ole highly unionized high labor cost USA.
Last edited by MagooFlew; 04-30-2020 at 08:43 PM.
#167
Thanks for the rest of your post and the information.
#168
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 75
Right. And retreat from globalization is not really a thing because, cheaper labor costs just got cheaper as economies dip and labor supply increases. It might mean additional diversification of manufacturing and supply chains from one particular (cough) country to other regional ones (it’s already starting). But not likely bringin’ it back to the good ‘ole highly unionized high labor cost USA.
#169
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 66
I think the intent is to not pick up open time when guys who want to come back immediately are on furlough. CHOOSING to stay out for 10 years isn’t quite the same. At the point where new hires are being brought on, open time is fair game....in my opinion.
Thanks for the rest of your post and the information.
Thanks for the rest of your post and the information.
LOL. “Choosing to stay out”. I could have bailed out of the USAF around 2006 to be furloughed a year an a half later...an unknown at that time. I always wanted to come back. I expect guys flying the line were doing their best at 30%+ pay reductions to take care of their families too...coming up on retirement and all. They were still making more than I was.
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