Furlough estimate
04-30-2020, 07:19 AM
#141
Banned
Joined APC: May 2014
Position: Tom’s Whipping boy.
Posts: 1,182
Everyone, Respectfully,
This continuous uninformed, opinionated rumor mongering is irresponsible and not helpful. This speculation serves no real purpose; will everyone please stop. We all have an inalienable right to free speech and to our own opinion, but please think about what harm to others you could be causing by spreading unofficial, speculative rumors; however accurate they might turn out to be. You do not know the facts right now.
Please balance your need to "scoop" someone on a forum or be the smartest in the class with the impact your rumor might have on someone new or junior. Ask yourself, "How does this rumor really help (someone else)".
It doesn't matter how many times you state that this is "just my opinion" or "I could be wrong...", it doesn't really diminish the quantity of bad information. The impact on people and the decisions that will soon have to be made are critical and long-term; by filling the vacuum with falsehood, that decision process starts from a flawed beginning. Some people who read this forum ascribe far more credibility than deserved to things on here.
When definitive information finally comes from the company or ALPA, then speculations, past practices(sadly) and opinions with the facts can be, and have been, very helpful.
There were horrible personal outcomes for some in the last two industry downturns. Please don't fan any fires. "First, do no harm"
Again, respectfully.
This continuous uninformed, opinionated rumor mongering is irresponsible and not helpful. This speculation serves no real purpose; will everyone please stop. We all have an inalienable right to free speech and to our own opinion, but please think about what harm to others you could be causing by spreading unofficial, speculative rumors; however accurate they might turn out to be. You do not know the facts right now.
Please balance your need to "scoop" someone on a forum or be the smartest in the class with the impact your rumor might have on someone new or junior. Ask yourself, "How does this rumor really help (someone else)".
It doesn't matter how many times you state that this is "just my opinion" or "I could be wrong...", it doesn't really diminish the quantity of bad information. The impact on people and the decisions that will soon have to be made are critical and long-term; by filling the vacuum with falsehood, that decision process starts from a flawed beginning. Some people who read this forum ascribe far more credibility than deserved to things on here.
When definitive information finally comes from the company or ALPA, then speculations, past practices(sadly) and opinions with the facts can be, and have been, very helpful.
There were horrible personal outcomes for some in the last two industry downturns. Please don't fan any fires. "First, do no harm"
Again, respectfully.
If it disturbs you, find something else to read or someone to talk to about your feelings......respectfully.
04-30-2020, 08:07 AM
#142
The Beach
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 63
Challenging times for sure.
Having lived through the furlough days twice, although I was never furloughed, they will furlough until they have the "ah ha" moment that they've gone too far and need to stop or reverse the process. They'll have a ballpark figure based on their plan and projections, but we'll never know the exact number or who will be "The Ball" until the music stops.
There are many wildcards in this downward spiral and it's near impossible to be clairvoyant. It will be painful for all to varying degrees. The economy and passenger bookings / demand is key. If the passengers don't come back to the level they've planned for, the cuts will continue beyond the 1500-2000 furloughs that are "expected / rumored" at this point. How many more? See the clairvoyant comment above.
Then there's the ALPA and the UPA. Are we going to "help". After learning this lesson before it is easier to know the correct answer. DO NOT GIVE CONCESSIONS. If the company is going to go Chapter 11, you can work for free and it will not prevent them from doing it. They will rape us. In fact, the company still needs several BILLION dollars in cash to be able to enter the Chapter 1113 process.
The answer MUST BE something like..."Yep, Oscar and Scott, you were happy with our current UPA for the past 2 years. We are happy with it too, goodbye. Call us if you need us in front of the judge."
Personally, I'd rather give only once in front of the judge instead of "helping" now and having the judge take away more in Round 2.
Stay strong
Having lived through the furlough days twice, although I was never furloughed, they will furlough until they have the "ah ha" moment that they've gone too far and need to stop or reverse the process. They'll have a ballpark figure based on their plan and projections, but we'll never know the exact number or who will be "The Ball" until the music stops.
There are many wildcards in this downward spiral and it's near impossible to be clairvoyant. It will be painful for all to varying degrees. The economy and passenger bookings / demand is key. If the passengers don't come back to the level they've planned for, the cuts will continue beyond the 1500-2000 furloughs that are "expected / rumored" at this point. How many more? See the clairvoyant comment above.
Then there's the ALPA and the UPA. Are we going to "help". After learning this lesson before it is easier to know the correct answer. DO NOT GIVE CONCESSIONS. If the company is going to go Chapter 11, you can work for free and it will not prevent them from doing it. They will rape us. In fact, the company still needs several BILLION dollars in cash to be able to enter the Chapter 1113 process.
The answer MUST BE something like..."Yep, Oscar and Scott, you were happy with our current UPA for the past 2 years. We are happy with it too, goodbye. Call us if you need us in front of the judge."
Personally, I'd rather give only once in front of the judge instead of "helping" now and having the judge take away more in Round 2.
Stay strong
The same sentiment has come directly from several of the L-UA "Twice Furloughed". That being said, they are the ones who were actually played as pawns on the Company's Furlough-Chessboard.
04-30-2020, 08:58 AM
#143
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: B737 CAPT IAH
Posts: 1,130
Lee
04-30-2020, 09:51 AM
#144
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: 777FO
Posts: 784
On top of this potential "growth" or shuffling onto the 787, I think there will be similar movement onto the 737. For example, the LAX, SFO, and DEN 756 bases may indeed close eventually but I think a good chunk of those crews will be required for PS service on the 10 Max (if it ever shows up) or service to HI. Now is a pretty good time to start training those crews. So, maybe the NPDM will turn out not as bleak in person as it might seem in its current rumor form.
04-30-2020, 10:07 AM
#145
The Beach
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 63
I don't look at it often, so I can't say for certain.
Honest question, b/c I don't know the answer.....Isn't it "open" all the time? If a Pilot wanted to change their "standing bid" during times when there are no vacancies "open" to bid on, how else would Pilot's be able to tweak their "standing bid" outside of vacancy bids being out? Hope that makes sense.
04-30-2020, 10:39 AM
#147
The Beach
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 63
04-30-2020, 01:39 PM
#149
Banned
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 25
Everyone, Respectfully,
This continuous uninformed, opinionated rumor mongering is irresponsible and not helpful. This speculation serves no real purpose; will everyone please stop. We all have an inalienable right to free speech and to our own opinion, but please think about what harm to others you could be causing by spreading unofficial, speculative rumors; however accurate they might turn out to be. You do not know the facts right now.
Please balance your need to "scoop" someone on a forum or be the smartest in the class with the impact your rumor might have on someone new or junior. Ask yourself, "How does this rumor really help (someone else)".
It doesn't matter how many times you state that this is "just my opinion" or "I could be wrong...", it doesn't really diminish the quantity of bad information. The impact on people and the decisions that will soon have to be made are critical and long-term; by filling the vacuum with falsehood, that decision process starts from a flawed beginning. Some people who read this forum ascribe far more credibility than deserved to things on here.
When definitive information finally comes from the company or ALPA, then speculations, past practices(sadly) and opinions with the facts can be, and have been, very helpful.
There were horrible personal outcomes for some in the last two industry downturns. Please don't fan any fires. "First, do no harm"
Again, respectfully.
This continuous uninformed, opinionated rumor mongering is irresponsible and not helpful. This speculation serves no real purpose; will everyone please stop. We all have an inalienable right to free speech and to our own opinion, but please think about what harm to others you could be causing by spreading unofficial, speculative rumors; however accurate they might turn out to be. You do not know the facts right now.
Please balance your need to "scoop" someone on a forum or be the smartest in the class with the impact your rumor might have on someone new or junior. Ask yourself, "How does this rumor really help (someone else)".
It doesn't matter how many times you state that this is "just my opinion" or "I could be wrong...", it doesn't really diminish the quantity of bad information. The impact on people and the decisions that will soon have to be made are critical and long-term; by filling the vacuum with falsehood, that decision process starts from a flawed beginning. Some people who read this forum ascribe far more credibility than deserved to things on here.
When definitive information finally comes from the company or ALPA, then speculations, past practices(sadly) and opinions with the facts can be, and have been, very helpful.
There were horrible personal outcomes for some in the last two industry downturns. Please don't fan any fires. "First, do no harm"
Again, respectfully.
Respectfully.
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