cadetdrivr

That's how it's gone down in the past

A larger "X" number at first then a smaller monthly "Y" number.

But 4000 on Oct 1 is a ridiculous number for the reason you gave.

This thread is now going on 13 pages and nobody can give accurate X and Y numbers because nobody knows UAL's ultimate target, including UAL. And that's because nobody knows for certain what the recovery will look like.

pilotgolfer

How far from the bottom are you? I was not here for the 2172 but I did get to experience the 1437. (Correct me if I’m wrong on the number! You think they would be burned into my memory). In 2009, they had parked 100 guppies in a very short time. The 737 guys getting furloughed were truly excess because most bases had no flying on the 737. I was IAD based and we had zero flying and zero lines. ORD still had flying at the time. I was furloughed Jan 2009 and I was 240ish from the bottom of the list. I don’t remember there being a big first group going out the door at a time. I want to say the first batch was maybe 150-200.

I think this time will be different. With a dearth of flying, they can cut pretty aggressively immediately. Pick a number. 500? 1000? 1500? I don’t think anyone knows the answer but it will be more than a handful. By October, I would hope the crystal ball has at least a little bit more clarity. The follow on rounds of furloughs can be metered based on that new info. Think somewhere in 100-200 range per month until they get to their number.

Im sorry you are going through this. There’s no way to sugar coat it. It was not a fun experience. I was grateful for the furlough fund providing for our Cobra payments. I’m sure they will do something similar for this group of furloughees. Message boards can be a useful tool to find info...but try to limit the time spent. It will drive you crazy if you let it. (Ask me how I know!)

rekatron

I'm a couple thousand from the bottom, but I've got a part time guard job to pay the bills, so I'm lucky on that end.

Honestly I was just investigating how likely a huge cut off the bat would be vs. maybe a few months later. Fully prepared for Oct 1st, but if not... all I can do is keep throwing the dice and letting it ride.

pilotgolfer

Me personally...as in my personal opinion...my opinion only...mine and mine alone...I think you will survive the initial cut. I don’t see it going more than 1500. I’m in the camp of 1000ish. If you want the most accurate prediction, maybe Piston89 will see this and chime in. He is way more in tune with what is going on. He called this whole fiasco way before I believed it was possible.

GoCats67

Lets say your first mark for manpower is next summer. Between Apr1, 2020 and Jul31, 2021 we will have 600 retirements, so without any additional offerings at least that many will retire by then. So, you will go from approximately 13500 down to 12900 with just that. If you wanted to be 15% smaller across the board by next summer you would be looking at a total need of 1425 furloughs. If you wanted to furlough as much as you could starting on Oct 1, you would have several areas of potential problems that you would have to be able to handle staffing wise.

The bottom 1425 represent the following percentages of the current BES followed by how many pilots would have to be displaced from elsewhere and trained into that position to have it staffed at 85% of the current size:

DCA 320 FO - 46% = 36 new pilots needed
DCA 737 FO - 27% = 27 new pilots needed

DEN 320 FO - 19% = 7 new pilots needed
DEN 737 FO - 25% = 26 new pilots needed
DEN 756 FO - 19% = 3 new pilots needed

EWR 320 FO - 59% = 113 new pilots needed
EWR 737 FO 37% = 88 new pilots needed
EWR 756 FO 26% = 56 new pilots needed

IAH 737 FO 21% = 25 new pilots needed

LAX 320 FO 61% = 23 new pilots needed
LAX 737 FO 44% = 59 new pilots needed
LAX 756 FO 55% = 34 new pilots needed

ORD 320 FO 18% = 6 new pilots needed
ORD 737 FO 23% = 18 new pilots needed

SFO 320 FO 72% = 118 new pilots needed
SFO 737 FO 53% = 91 new pilots needed
SFO 756 FO 62% = 49 new pilots needed

To be able to furlough everyone you would have about 800ish training events needed to get new people into these seats. Obviously the cuts would not be straight across the board, but if you want to be 15% smaller by next summer that is a pretty good approximation of what it would take. If you want to be even smaller then the training events start going up dramatically as you get the daisy chain of bump/training/bump/training going from higher seats as retirements alone would not provide the needed movement in the CA seat!

Even with a 15% reduction It is virtually impossible to do 800 transitions by Oct 1. The problem for us becomes what if you want to be 40% smaller on Oct 1 and work your way up to being only 15% smaller by June 1. Then you would only need about 225 transitions by Oct 1 and the remaining 500+ could be done over the Fall, Winter and Spring. Doing over 200 transitions by Oct 1, would be difficult, but possible.

So, the driving force is how much smaller of an airline are they planning for Oct. A small size in October unfortunately would allow a large furlough.

LUVPLANES

Here is the latest rumor on the NPDM and fallout.

1500-2000 furloughs in waves of 500.

CLE base closing.

Categories to close:

CLE 737
ORD 777
ORD 756
IAH 777
IAH 756
DEN 787
DEN 756
SFO 756
LAX 756
LAX 320

A big realignment is in motion. Town Hall meeting for employees with Oscar/Scott on May 1st, hopefully they can confirm the numbers.

copy

Just out of curiosity, what’s the approximate DOH for 1500 and 2000?

ugleeual

Be interesting to see how accurate this might be... also wonder how frequent the waves will be... going to be hanging out on our boards between The long swells or this going to be a rough ride.

CLazarus

1500 roughly summer 2018. 2000 should have been fall 2016. There were about 12 months with little or no Indoc classes between Jan 2017 and Jan 2018, mostly due to the parking of the Whale and all the displacements it caused.

With all the categories rumored to be eliminated, I'd think IAH and ORD 787 categories will probably grow somewhat as the 787 takes over 777 and 767 routes. So it goes, or better I hope.

Viperstick

From the look of things, the 756 owns the Europe routes from the east coast hubs and that's about it. Looks like it survives until at least the 321XLR shows up. The 777 is pushed to the coasts for the heavier traveled long haul routes and (maybe) premium transcons. Is the mid-continent hub strategy dead with the removal of all international flying but ORD/IAH 787? The cuts are in some very senior categories. Would be nice to see some kind of (palatable) early retirement offered.

1500-2000 for this NPDM. Any theories what happens after that? When's the next NPDM and how deep will those cuts be?