Sniper66

I took into consideration the actual pilots hitting 65 by March 1 st and about 90 continental pilots that I think will retire because of the lump sump opportunity of their frozen pension
however I did not take into consideration of any early outs like AMR SW and DL offer since I don’t think United will offer it

MiLa

This... WARN notices are a federal mandate and require 60 days notice... they are NOT furlough notifications. The 90 days and 30 day requirements in the UPA are for furlough notifications. So even if they send out 4000 WARN notices tomorrow. They still have to give a furlough letter 90 days prior to furlough for those hired prior to Jan ‘16 and 30 days for those after Jan 16’. Therefore as of today, they can’t furlough anyone hired prior to Jan ‘16 on Oct 1. Or now even Oct 5th for that matter....

Half wing

I think snipers estimate is very close. A small detail I want to mention is that you can’t look at Unitedseniority.com for an accurate seniority percentage for next summer because those percentages are based on a static total number of pilots. 12936 today. Your percentage is only accurate as long as there are 12936 pilots on property. So as that number shrinks due to retirements/attrition, if you are on the bubble, your percentage will actually be slightly worse by a percent or two. That nuance may not matter as I think they are shooting to have 70% of the active pilots they had October of 2020 on June 2021, offset by volunteers and other furlough mitigations that emerge. I don’t think they plan on recalling any furloughs until the ramp up for summer 2022 and probably will just try to get through summer 2021 lean.

Barley

where do you go to see there are 12,936 today?

DwightSchrute

MoP mentioned the date that he would use to apply the 30%... were u using March 1st, 2021? September 1st?

Anyway, for those on the bubble what number of pilots (active or not) and what date you apply the 30% target to swings them above or below the line. The way these furloughs will be announced and metered-out I don’t think that the “last” furlough or the “plug” will know where they sit or if they kept their job for months yet.

duvie

nothing has happened yet. If you make your assessments of the situation based on pilot conjecture, god help you

I’ll offer different conjecture, since that is the intellectual currency de jour:

as long as there aren’t secondary COVID flare-ups (IE once a state has its peak, the newly-infected rate drops), we’ll see 85% on the list for next summer

if places become re-infected OR the big financial institutions realize the stock market is currently a big game of chicken with really nothing propping it up other than coordinated “confidence,” then we’ll see a 30% (or more) smaller airline.

I suspect people in the 65% to 85% range will get furlough letters that probably will not come to fruition. The staffing levels for next summer are largely dependent on details yet to come. I doubt we’ll have a real understanding of next summer until mid-winter

RJDio

Thanks for your concern, but I believe I do have enough critical thinking skills to come to my own determination without other pilots conjecture and speculations.

I judge Kirby based on his words and actions. It was he that came out talking about using this crisis to encroach on our competitors market share. He who said United would be aggressive. Then suddenly he changed his tune to “30% smaller”. An enigma for us to unravel as to what/who will be 30% smaller.

The company’s actions, via displacement bids, have been shockingly recessive. And if you believe the MC they would have been a lot greater than 30% in the last round of displacement. The problem is the company is not operating in a vacuum. Our three main competitors reactions have been less draconian than ours.

I’ve said It from the beginning; either our management team is leaps and bounds ahead of the rest or they’re the dumbest around. No in between with the course they have chosen.

I guess you and I will find out our fates by spring.

bigfatdaddy

From yahoo finance United News today.......

......According to United, 36,000 workers — or 45% of U.S. positions — may be impacted or laid off by October 1. Although 3700 have already taken an early-out option, the potential losses affect 15,000 flight attendants, 11,000 airport staffers, 5500 maintenance positions and 2250 pilots, the company told reporters on a conference call........

I like how they’re talking to reporters on a conference call, but keeping us in the dark.........nice core4

ugleeual

No kidding...Unfortunately this is probably just the first round... hopefully loads improve over the end of summer and early fall.

steve0617

New CCS message from Quigley.

2250 WARN notices.

'As you read earlier in this message, 2250 pilots will be receiving WARN notices via CCS later today that specify potential furlough start dates, which includes October 1 (1750 pilots), October 30 (250 pilots) and November 30, 2020 (250 pilots).