Furlough estimate
04-29-2020, 04:39 AM
#102
New Hire
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 9
This seems like respectable information, at least at this point, since the environment is uncertain and can change in the coming months.
I'm a bit reluctant to write what I heard from a friend of mine who said that there is information that is beginning to leak out from certain places. I will however mention it since it's my opinion that the communication is lacking regarding furloughs. Even if this information is not one hundred percent accurate at least it might help the junior pilots prepare for the potential. Awareness, preparation, and execution are essential.
If you are in the bottom 1500-2000 pilots and the current conditions still exist into the coming months and are not projected to get better this year, I'd personally be getting ready sooner rather than later. Based on those numbers, even though I'm not in that group of our fine professionals. I am personally preparing for the collateral damage that is coming.
Beyond 2020, there may need to be further adjustments, which at that point will make this airline look a lot different. But, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves in that regard just yet since this is affecting all airlines worldwide. We do not know what support, aid, changes, or improvements may arrive in the future.
There's a meeting coming up this week / weekend regarding the NPDM on displacements. There's fleet adjustments coming and Pilot Base decisions that will be made sooner rather than later. Certain bases can still be served even if there is not a pilot base at that location, we'll see what happens there.
Take this for what it's worth, which at this point is very preliminary. My thoughts and hopes for everyone's health, well being, and livelihoods are certainly at the forefront of my reason for posting this information during these stressful and unprecedented times.
I wish I knew more specific information and that it was positive. Hopefully what I heard will not totally come to fruition, but based on what's going on, there's going to be though pills to swallow for everyone. Please use the resources that are available and reach out to your colleagues if you need help navigating these challenging times.
Stay safe, unified and informed, our resolve will be tested. Hopefully our ALPA leadership will avoid past mistakes even in these gloomy times. I'd hate to give up UPA provisions to TRY to avoid a Chapter 11 filing and what most certainly will be a decimation of the UPA, our profession, and lead us into another lost decade if not longer.
Stay strong
I'm a bit reluctant to write what I heard from a friend of mine who said that there is information that is beginning to leak out from certain places. I will however mention it since it's my opinion that the communication is lacking regarding furloughs. Even if this information is not one hundred percent accurate at least it might help the junior pilots prepare for the potential. Awareness, preparation, and execution are essential.
If you are in the bottom 1500-2000 pilots and the current conditions still exist into the coming months and are not projected to get better this year, I'd personally be getting ready sooner rather than later. Based on those numbers, even though I'm not in that group of our fine professionals. I am personally preparing for the collateral damage that is coming.
Beyond 2020, there may need to be further adjustments, which at that point will make this airline look a lot different. But, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves in that regard just yet since this is affecting all airlines worldwide. We do not know what support, aid, changes, or improvements may arrive in the future.
There's a meeting coming up this week / weekend regarding the NPDM on displacements. There's fleet adjustments coming and Pilot Base decisions that will be made sooner rather than later. Certain bases can still be served even if there is not a pilot base at that location, we'll see what happens there.
Take this for what it's worth, which at this point is very preliminary. My thoughts and hopes for everyone's health, well being, and livelihoods are certainly at the forefront of my reason for posting this information during these stressful and unprecedented times.
I wish I knew more specific information and that it was positive. Hopefully what I heard will not totally come to fruition, but based on what's going on, there's going to be though pills to swallow for everyone. Please use the resources that are available and reach out to your colleagues if you need help navigating these challenging times.
Stay safe, unified and informed, our resolve will be tested. Hopefully our ALPA leadership will avoid past mistakes even in these gloomy times. I'd hate to give up UPA provisions to TRY to avoid a Chapter 11 filing and what most certainly will be a decimation of the UPA, our profession, and lead us into another lost decade if not longer.
Stay strong
04-29-2020, 06:02 AM
#103
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
This seems like respectable information, at least at this point, since the environment is uncertain and can change in the coming months.
I'm a bit reluctant to write what I heard from a friend of mine who said that there is information that is beginning to leak out from certain places. I will however mention it since it's my opinion that the communication is lacking regarding furloughs. Even if this information is not one hundred percent accurate at least it might help the junior pilots prepare for the potential. Awareness, preparation, and execution are essential.
If you are in the bottom 1500-2000 pilots and the current conditions still exist into the coming months and are not projected to get better this year, I'd personally be getting ready sooner rather than later. Based on those numbers, even though I'm not in that group of our fine professionals. I am personally preparing for the collateral damage that is coming.
Beyond 2020, there may need to be further adjustments, which at that point will make this airline look a lot different. But, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves in that regard just yet since this is affecting all airlines worldwide. We do not know what support, aid, changes, or improvements may arrive in the future.
There's a meeting coming up this week / weekend regarding the NPDM on displacements. There's fleet adjustments coming and Pilot Base decisions that will be made sooner rather than later. Certain bases can still be served even if there is not a pilot base at that location, we'll see what happens there.
Take this for what it's worth, which at this point is very preliminary. My thoughts and hopes for everyone's health, well being, and livelihoods are certainly at the forefront of my reason for posting this information during these stressful and unprecedented times.
I wish I knew more specific information and that it was positive. Hopefully what I heard will not totally come to fruition, but based on what's going on, there's going to be though pills to swallow for everyone. Please use the resources that are available and reach out to your colleagues if you need help navigating these challenging times.
Stay safe, unified and informed, our resolve will be tested. Hopefully our ALPA leadership will avoid past mistakes even in these gloomy times. I'd hate to give up UPA provisions to TRY to avoid a Chapter 11 filing and what most certainly will be a decimation of the UPA, our profession, and lead us into another lost decade if not longer.
Stay strong
I'm a bit reluctant to write what I heard from a friend of mine who said that there is information that is beginning to leak out from certain places. I will however mention it since it's my opinion that the communication is lacking regarding furloughs. Even if this information is not one hundred percent accurate at least it might help the junior pilots prepare for the potential. Awareness, preparation, and execution are essential.
If you are in the bottom 1500-2000 pilots and the current conditions still exist into the coming months and are not projected to get better this year, I'd personally be getting ready sooner rather than later. Based on those numbers, even though I'm not in that group of our fine professionals. I am personally preparing for the collateral damage that is coming.
Beyond 2020, there may need to be further adjustments, which at that point will make this airline look a lot different. But, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves in that regard just yet since this is affecting all airlines worldwide. We do not know what support, aid, changes, or improvements may arrive in the future.
There's a meeting coming up this week / weekend regarding the NPDM on displacements. There's fleet adjustments coming and Pilot Base decisions that will be made sooner rather than later. Certain bases can still be served even if there is not a pilot base at that location, we'll see what happens there.
Take this for what it's worth, which at this point is very preliminary. My thoughts and hopes for everyone's health, well being, and livelihoods are certainly at the forefront of my reason for posting this information during these stressful and unprecedented times.
I wish I knew more specific information and that it was positive. Hopefully what I heard will not totally come to fruition, but based on what's going on, there's going to be though pills to swallow for everyone. Please use the resources that are available and reach out to your colleagues if you need help navigating these challenging times.
Stay safe, unified and informed, our resolve will be tested. Hopefully our ALPA leadership will avoid past mistakes even in these gloomy times. I'd hate to give up UPA provisions to TRY to avoid a Chapter 11 filing and what most certainly will be a decimation of the UPA, our profession, and lead us into another lost decade if not longer.
Stay strong
posted in another thread but here are my predictions also based on what you said:
closed Base
CLE
closed Category
CLE 737
ORD 777
IAH 777
DEN 787
SFO 756
LAX 756
IAH 756
possible closed categories
DEN 756
ORD 756
LAX 320
04-29-2020, 06:29 AM
#104
Line Holder
Joined APC: Oct 2013
Posts: 48
Stay safe, unified and informed, our resolve will be tested. Hopefully our ALPA leadership will avoid past mistakes even in these gloomy times. I'd hate to give up UPA provisions to TRY to avoid a Chapter 11 filing and what most certainly will be a decimation of the UPA, our profession, and lead us into another lost decade if not longer.
04-29-2020, 07:04 AM
#105
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2014
Posts: 812
Dumb question but could opening a 73 Florida base reduce some of the costs to the company in this displacement? Couldn't that entice senior people from both seats on international fleets to bid it vs an even bigger displacement and shuffle. We have a huge % of florida commuters and it would be a pretty nice carrot for them to bid off of different fleets vs forcing the bottom of those fleets out. I would think that those pilots would probably stay on that equipment forever living in base and reducing future training. Close CLE and open MCO. Reduces moving benefits as well with most people already living within the 2 hr ring.
04-29-2020, 07:09 AM
#106
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: F-16
Posts: 201
Dumb question but could opening a 73 Florida base reduce some of the costs to the company in this displacement? Couldn't that entice senior people from both seats on international fleets to bid it vs an even bigger displacement and shuffle. We have a huge % of florida commuters and it would be a pretty nice carrot for them to bid off of different fleets vs forcing the bottom of those fleets out. I would think that those pilots would probably stay on that equipment forever living in base and reducing future training. Close CLE and open MCO. Reduces moving benefits as well with most people already living within the 2 hr ring.
04-29-2020, 07:15 AM
#107
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
Dumb question but could opening a 73 Florida base reduce some of the costs to the company in this displacement? Couldn't that entice senior people from both seats on international fleets to bid it vs an even bigger displacement and shuffle. We have a huge % of florida commuters and it would be a pretty nice carrot for them to bid off of different fleets vs forcing the bottom of those fleets out. I would think that those pilots would probably stay on that equipment forever living in base and reducing future training. Close CLE and open MCO. Reduces moving benefits as well with most people already living within the 2 hr ring.
04-29-2020, 07:22 AM
#108
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: 777FO
Posts: 784
Dumb question but could opening a 73 Florida base reduce some of the costs to the company in this displacement? Couldn't that entice senior people from both seats on international fleets to bid it vs an even bigger displacement and shuffle. We have a huge % of florida commuters and it would be a pretty nice carrot for them to bid off of different fleets vs forcing the bottom of those fleets out. I would think that those pilots would probably stay on that equipment forever living in base and reducing future training. Close CLE and open MCO. Reduces moving benefits as well with most people already living within the 2 hr ring.
04-29-2020, 07:58 AM
#109
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 951
Back of the excel sheet math.
How big a reduction do you think we will have for Summer 2021?
We have about 600 retirements between April 20 and July 21.
Here are what 10%, 15%, 20%, and 30% reductions look like across the affected BES locations, using the April Roster and the planned 600 retirements.
You can see, by including retirements, a 15% reduction of the total pilot population translates into just over 10% of the pilots being furloughed, so that would get us to the max allowed if the company actually takes the loan money from the govt. (in addition to the combination grant/loan that restricts furloughs before Oct1) If the company doesn't take the loan money (or if the government gives them relief from the furlough restriction) then it could go higher than the 10% furlough number.
Displacements from the BES locations with less than the planned reduction would have to take place. This would get pilots into the BES locations with large junior populations/furlough numbers. So displacements of the more senior folks would result in them moving to the currently junior domicile to replace outgoing furloughed pilots. Probably no displacements (just furloughs) in the FO seat on the 737 or 320 in LAX, SFO, ORD or EWR and prob none on DEN 737. I would expect displacements on the 756 FO seat, but those on the bottom of that fleet in SFO, LAX and EWR will not be trained if the company is planning on furloughing a significant number of pilots.
* I used 13500 as the base number of pilots at the airline for % purposes. The spreadsheet includes the folks on LOA/LTD/SUP in the BES locations so the columns will add up to slightly higher than the actual furlough number shown at the top
** tried to load up the excel sheet, but failed miserably, so went with a PDF of the 4 scenarios
How big a reduction do you think we will have for Summer 2021?
We have about 600 retirements between April 20 and July 21.
Here are what 10%, 15%, 20%, and 30% reductions look like across the affected BES locations, using the April Roster and the planned 600 retirements.
You can see, by including retirements, a 15% reduction of the total pilot population translates into just over 10% of the pilots being furloughed, so that would get us to the max allowed if the company actually takes the loan money from the govt. (in addition to the combination grant/loan that restricts furloughs before Oct1) If the company doesn't take the loan money (or if the government gives them relief from the furlough restriction) then it could go higher than the 10% furlough number.
Displacements from the BES locations with less than the planned reduction would have to take place. This would get pilots into the BES locations with large junior populations/furlough numbers. So displacements of the more senior folks would result in them moving to the currently junior domicile to replace outgoing furloughed pilots. Probably no displacements (just furloughs) in the FO seat on the 737 or 320 in LAX, SFO, ORD or EWR and prob none on DEN 737. I would expect displacements on the 756 FO seat, but those on the bottom of that fleet in SFO, LAX and EWR will not be trained if the company is planning on furloughing a significant number of pilots.
* I used 13500 as the base number of pilots at the airline for % purposes. The spreadsheet includes the folks on LOA/LTD/SUP in the BES locations so the columns will add up to slightly higher than the actual furlough number shown at the top
** tried to load up the excel sheet, but failed miserably, so went with a PDF of the 4 scenarios
04-29-2020, 08:02 AM
#110
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2015
Posts: 166
Back of the excel sheet math.
How big a reduction do you think we will have for Summer 2021?
We have about 600 retirements between April 20 and July 21.
Here are what 10%, 15%, 20%, and 30% reductions look like across the affected BES locations, using the April Roster and the planned 600 retirements.
You can see, by including retirements, a 15% reduction of the total pilot population translates into just over 10% of the pilots being furloughed, so that would get us to the max allowed if the company actually takes the loan money from the govt. (in addition to the combination grant/loan that restricts furloughs before Oct1) If the company doesn't take the loan money (or if the government gives them relief from the furlough restriction) then it could go higher than the 10% furlough number.
Displacements from the BES locations with less than the planned reduction would have to take place. This would get pilots into the BES locations with large junior populations/furlough numbers. So displacements of the more senior folks would result in them moving to the currently junior domicile to replace outgoing furloughed pilots. Probably no displacements in the FO seat on the 737 or 320 in LAX, SFO, ORD or EWR and prob none on DEN 737. I would expect displacements on the 756 FO seat, but those on the bottom of that fleet in SFO, LAX and EWR will not be trained if the company is planning on furloughing a significant number of pilots.
* I used 13500 as the base number of pilots at the airline for % purposes. The spreadsheet includes the folks on LOA/LTD/SUP in the BES locations so the columns will add up to slightly higher than the actual furlough number shown at the top
** tried to load up the excel sheet, but failed miserably, so went with a PDF of the 4 scenarios
How big a reduction do you think we will have for Summer 2021?
We have about 600 retirements between April 20 and July 21.
Here are what 10%, 15%, 20%, and 30% reductions look like across the affected BES locations, using the April Roster and the planned 600 retirements.
You can see, by including retirements, a 15% reduction of the total pilot population translates into just over 10% of the pilots being furloughed, so that would get us to the max allowed if the company actually takes the loan money from the govt. (in addition to the combination grant/loan that restricts furloughs before Oct1) If the company doesn't take the loan money (or if the government gives them relief from the furlough restriction) then it could go higher than the 10% furlough number.
Displacements from the BES locations with less than the planned reduction would have to take place. This would get pilots into the BES locations with large junior populations/furlough numbers. So displacements of the more senior folks would result in them moving to the currently junior domicile to replace outgoing furloughed pilots. Probably no displacements in the FO seat on the 737 or 320 in LAX, SFO, ORD or EWR and prob none on DEN 737. I would expect displacements on the 756 FO seat, but those on the bottom of that fleet in SFO, LAX and EWR will not be trained if the company is planning on furloughing a significant number of pilots.
* I used 13500 as the base number of pilots at the airline for % purposes. The spreadsheet includes the folks on LOA/LTD/SUP in the BES locations so the columns will add up to slightly higher than the actual furlough number shown at the top
** tried to load up the excel sheet, but failed miserably, so went with a PDF of the 4 scenarios
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