Furlough estimate
07-04-2020, 11:17 AM
#1051
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
january 2016 is my guess followed by a voluntary furlough.
once that closes they will rerun the numbers and that will drive through NOV furlough numbers. All said and done no more than 3000.
people are focusing on 70% but no one knows when they want 70%. 2013 hires will be sub 70% on OCT 1 and 2014 hires will be sub 70% by summer 2021 .
i wouldn’t be surprised if our numbers come out pretty close to DL’s 2558.
once that closes they will rerun the numbers and that will drive through NOV furlough numbers. All said and done no more than 3000.
people are focusing on 70% but no one knows when they want 70%. 2013 hires will be sub 70% on OCT 1 and 2014 hires will be sub 70% by summer 2021 .
i wouldn’t be surprised if our numbers come out pretty close to DL’s 2558.
07-04-2020, 11:35 AM
#1052
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 1,139
I don't know if any airline can escape a trip through bankruptcy court after shrinking 30%. A lot of your fixed costs are still there, and you can't get out of them without the help of a judge. That is why any Delta Bravo management puke spewing "shrink to profitability is a complete idiot.
Unless air travel returns quickly, any airline trying to go it without "safe harbor" is just kicking the can down the road, and will end up so indebted they will never make money, or pay their obligations.
The only hope is further bailouts. I don't think the country has any more stomach for that.
Unless air travel returns quickly, any airline trying to go it without "safe harbor" is just kicking the can down the road, and will end up so indebted they will never make money, or pay their obligations.
The only hope is further bailouts. I don't think the country has any more stomach for that.
07-04-2020, 11:37 AM
#1053
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,345
07-04-2020, 03:05 PM
#1055
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: A320
Posts: 661
Doesn’t anyone based in NYC require a 90 day WARN notice? I’m pretty sure that because of our EWR base and LGA sub base, those employees require a 90 day furlough notice by law no matter when they were hired 🤷♂️
07-04-2020, 04:15 PM
#1057
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2014
Posts: 812
Kirby is playing this two weeks behind everyone either because of a plan or incompetence. I honestly don't think he is incompetent but he is trying to be nimble with a 400lb ballerina. Hopefully we can watch other airlines make retreats and advances before they decide what % size our airline will be in 2021. They said the 70% thing almost two months ago. Furlough letters dont mean anything until you turn in your id.
07-04-2020, 04:17 PM
#1058
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: 756 left
Posts: 771
We had 16 rounds of furloughs after 9/11 to get to 2172. And multiple rounds in 08/09 to get to 1437. Only mention that to say that letters not arriving yesterday don't provide any sense of protection. Every extra day helps though.
07-04-2020, 04:24 PM
#1060
Squawking 2000
Joined APC: Jul 2015
Position: Skeptical
Posts: 737
Not saying that this time won’t be different, but those are our only two relevant data points for unforeseen catastrophic furlough events.
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