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Old 04-21-2020, 04:19 PM
  #31  
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townhall today and they don’t expect flying until a vaccine or herd etc etc. my guess is 3-4 years at which point most airlines will be gone
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Old 04-21-2020, 04:37 PM
  #32  
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There are a whole bunch of airlines about to go under. Virgin Australia just did. Virgin Atlantic is probably within a week or two as their ownership structure is too complicated. No government is going to prop up foreign investors. Cruise ship lines have the same problem. Lots of "flag of convenience" entities will get no backing.

I doubt United got a very good price. The value of United's unencumbered assets are already severely impaired. This only gets worse.
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Old 04-21-2020, 04:46 PM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by Probe
There are a whole bunch of airlines about to go under. Virgin Australia just did. Virgin Atlantic is probably within a week or two as their ownership structure is too complicated. No government is going to prop up foreign investors. Cruise ship lines have the same problem. Lots of "flag of convenience" entities will get no backing.

I doubt United got a very good price. The value of United's unencumbered assets are already severely impaired. This only gets worse.
All this.

Personally, I’m glad UAL is being very aggressive with CASH.

This is a marathon and we are being chased by bears. We not only need to go the distance, but we also need to outrun others. If we survive the race the industry will look very different once past the finish line.

Looking at the back of the napkin and all the sources of cash UAL has raised in the last two weeks the total amount is mind blowing. Apparently “the market” seems to be betting, at least today, that UAL will outrun the bear.
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Old 04-21-2020, 05:01 PM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by domino
townhall today and they don’t expect flying until a vaccine or herd etc etc. my guess is 3-4 years at which point most airlines will be gone
Probably. Hub and spoke airlines will be kept alive by the Government. They will encourage them to acquire the other airlines, or at least what’s left of them. Maybe if we buy Alaska I can get based in SEA again.
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Old 04-21-2020, 05:02 PM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by cadetdrivr
All this.

Personally, I’m glad UAL is being very aggressive with CASH.

This is a marathon and we are being chased by bears. We not only need to go the distance, but we also need to outrun others. If we survive the race the industry will look very different once past the finish line.

Looking at the back of the napkin and all the sources of cash UAL has raised in the last two weeks the total amount is mind blowing. Apparently “the market” seems to be betting, at least today, that UAL will outrun the bear.
Don’t need to be faster than the bear, just faster than someone else that’s getting chased.
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Old 04-21-2020, 05:21 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by domino
townhall today and they don’t expect flying until a vaccine or herd etc etc. my guess is 3-4 years at which point most airlines will be gone
He didn’t expect full recovery until those things happen. Weakened demand, not the end of the world that you preach. We’re just going to be smaller for a while.
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Old 04-21-2020, 09:58 PM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by Itsajob
He didn’t expect full recovery until those things happen. Weakened demand, not the end of the world that you preach. We’re just going to be smaller for a while.
Been there; done that. Got the t-shirt; in fact, it says “Ted” on it. 😜
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Old 04-22-2020, 07:48 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by bigfatdaddy
quoting from the Indonesian report is rich indeed. A country with so dismal a aviation safety and accident record they only recently came off EU black lists. In 2015 they were cited as having a woefully inadequate safety oversight culture. But sure let’s believe them when they say their pilots had NOTHING to do with the accident.

YEAH RIGHT!
you actually might want to read the report.

https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/w...nal-Report.pdf


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/w...sh-report.html
Nurcahyo Utomo, an investigator for the Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee, listed what he said were nine contributing factors, including an automated system’s reliance on a single sensor; the miscalibration of that sensor during repairs; a lack of flight and maintenance documentation; and a failure by the flight crew to manage the chaos in the cockpit as emergency warnings sounded.
“The nine factors have to happen together,” Mr. Nurcahyo said at a news conference in Jakarta. “If one of those nine contributing factors did not happen, the crash would not have happened.”
https://www.npr.org/2019/10/25/77329...an-report-says

When the problems surfaced on Flight 610, the pilot asked the first officer to perform an Airspeed Unreliability checklist that should have indicated which of the plane's two AOA sensors was reading incorrectly. The first officer should then have directed the pilot to engage the autopilot, which disables MCAS.

It took the co-pilot four minutes to locate the checklist because he was "not familiar with the memory item," the report concludes. During training at Lion Air, the first officer had shown unfamiliarity with standard procedures and weak aircraft handling skills, according to the report.

The pilot reportedly countered the nose dives more than 20 times before, apparently needing a break, turning the controls over to the co-pilot, who quickly lost control of the aircraft, which plunged into the sea.
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Old 04-22-2020, 09:53 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by dumpcheck
Been there; done that. Got the t-shirt; in fact, it says “Ted” on it. 😜
Ahhh TED, the original "END of United"
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Old 04-22-2020, 06:25 PM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by full of luv
Ahhh TED, the original "END of United"
But Tague was an expert in low cost carriers. He had an excellent track record of running completely viable airlines into bankruptcy.
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