UAL Care Act details
04-16-2020, 12:18 PM
#82
Banned
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 1,358
A friend on the 777 has been NQ since mid March. He’s just bidding reserve and collecting 73 hours pay.
04-16-2020, 12:19 PM
#83
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: 756 left
Posts: 766
04-16-2020, 12:29 PM
#84
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Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
do you think the company will ONLY furlough 2000 pilots? If so then great we do t need to discuss this anymore.
04-16-2020, 12:47 PM
#85
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Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: 756 left
Posts: 766
yet you have not posted one single number other than 11,100 to make any other point. All you do is misread my posts and tel me I’m wrong. So please I’m begging you help me understand.
do you think the company will ONLY furlough 2000 pilots? If so then great we do t need to discuss this anymore.
do you think the company will ONLY furlough 2000 pilots? If so then great we do t need to discuss this anymore.
I never made a prediction on furlough numbers. Never will. The point of me mentioning that number isn't based on any insider information. It's only based on my understanding of the contract as it relates to displacements, the seniority demographics of each fleet, and how displacements have gone when there have been simultaneous displacements on every fleet in the company. I was here when that happened. And I can see how it's different this time.
I pointed that number out to you so that you could see that it wouldn't take a massive amount of training events to furlough in large chunks.
04-16-2020, 01:26 PM
#87
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jan 2020
Posts: 66
furloughs going back to 1999 longevity?
20 years of industry activity-gone?
Delta, Southwest, and American will have to do similar amounts of furloughing ...the other airlines will evaporate.... now you’re talking about removing almost 1 Trillion dollars from a national economy that reopened a few weeks ago and with people wanting to fly.
now throw in the fact that a vaccine is LIKELY to be available for frontline healthcare workers this fall
how do you substantiate this wild guess of yours that seems to only be spreading panic and fear for no reason?
20 years of industry activity-gone?
Delta, Southwest, and American will have to do similar amounts of furloughing ...the other airlines will evaporate.... now you’re talking about removing almost 1 Trillion dollars from a national economy that reopened a few weeks ago and with people wanting to fly.
now throw in the fact that a vaccine is LIKELY to be available for frontline healthcare workers this fall
how do you substantiate this wild guess of yours that seems to only be spreading panic and fear for no reason?
Nope. Historically Wall Street has expected UAL to shrink to profitability due to excess capacity in the post-2008 environment, simultaneously while expecting SWA to continue its rapid growth. Unfortunately back then, Smisek embraced the shrink to profitability model. I don’t think Kirby is the same.
04-16-2020, 07:19 PM
#89
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Joined APC: Nov 2010
Posts: 166
4000 pilots? Might as well liquidate UAL now.
Just like UAL can only hire so many pilots (about a 1000 a year) that's also about the same rate UAL can furlough pilots. It's pretty simple in concept: UAL will need to displace and train more senior pilots before the most junior ones can be furloughed.
By the time UAL could furlough 4000 pilots (about 3 years assuming a massive early wave followed my max training throughput) another 1500 pilots will retire. So you are really talking about UAL shrinking 5500 pilots.
That's far more than the 30% reduction being talking about this winter and a bigger reduction than anybody is forecasting for next summer, or the two summers after that.
Deep breaths, folks.
Just like UAL can only hire so many pilots (about a 1000 a year) that's also about the same rate UAL can furlough pilots. It's pretty simple in concept: UAL will need to displace and train more senior pilots before the most junior ones can be furloughed.
By the time UAL could furlough 4000 pilots (about 3 years assuming a massive early wave followed my max training throughput) another 1500 pilots will retire. So you are really talking about UAL shrinking 5500 pilots.
That's far more than the 30% reduction being talking about this winter and a bigger reduction than anybody is forecasting for next summer, or the two summers after that.
Deep breaths, folks.
Nonsense. There's no reason United couldn't come out of this 40 to 50% smaller than we are now and still be a viable business. Your threat of liquidation is absurd. And this fixation with the idea that furlough rate is somehow limited because of TK capacity is also ridiculous.
Many people on this board don't seem to be grasping the severity of this situation. This is NOT a slowdown or a recession. This is a total collapse of air travel as a business. Hopefully it's temporary, but no one knows. Even if it is temporary, the damage being done to individuals' and business' ability to spend is breathtaking and unprecedented.
United reported that we flew 550,000 passengers a day in March 2019. In March 2020, we flew 27,000 per day! Our traffic right now is down 95%! AA and DL are reporting similar numbers. These figures are also corroborated by TSA's figures of how many passengers are being screened each day at US airports. Also down more than 95%.
United just announced that they're adjusting the May schedule to be only 10% of last May's schedule. All other things being equal, that means we probably only need 100 airplanes to fly our entire schedule! 30 widebodies and 70 narrowbodies maybe? Do you guys really think that on October 1st they're going to start GRADUALLY working their way down to proper staffing levels for 100 airplanes when we're currently staffed for 700 airplanes? If traffic doesn't increase dramatically between now and then, they're gonna attack this operation with a f'ing meat cleaver, and that includes pilots.
People who think they'll be limited to a certain amount of furloughs because of their limited ability to train displaced pilots are delusional! They could furlough 5000 pilots on October 1st and not have ANY trouble still operating 100 airplanes' worth of flying. If they thought they were going to be short of narrowbody FO's after that furlough, they could displace and train several hundred of them before October 1st even gets here. All the rest of the 1000's of displacements could be done over the next year or two.
Cadetdrivr, your quote: "UAL will need to displace and train more senior pilots before the most junior ones can be furloughed." is completely false. That's how things work in a normal slowdown. What we're dealing with now doesn't even remotely resemble a normal slowdown. You don't "gradually" work your way from staffing for 700 airplanes down to staffing for 100 airplanes. You do it quickly or you end up in chapter 11.
Will we still be flying only 27,000 pax per day in October? Who knows? Even if it's twice or three times that, the point I'm making here is still valid. If people think the company is going to continue to absorb the cost of thousands of reserve pilots being paid 73 hours per month for not flying, they're just not thinking clearly.
04-16-2020, 07:44 PM
#90
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Position: Captain
Posts: 1,561
Nonsense. There's no reason United couldn't come out of this 40 to 50% smaller than we are now and still be a viable business. Your threat of liquidation is absurd. And this fixation with the idea that furlough rate is somehow limited because of TK capacity is also ridiculous.
Many people on this board don't seem to be grasping the severity of this situation. This is NOT a slowdown or a recession. This is a total collapse of air travel as a business. Hopefully it's temporary, but no one knows. Even if it is temporary, the damage being done to individuals' and business' ability to spend is breathtaking and unprecedented.
United reported that we flew 550,000 passengers a day in March 2019. In March 2020, we flew 27,000 per day! Our traffic right now is down 95%! AA and DL are reporting similar numbers. These figures are also corroborated by TSA's figures of how many passengers are being screened each day at US airports. Also down more than 95%.
United just announced that they're adjusting the May schedule to be only 10% of last May's schedule. All other things being equal, that means we probably only need 100 airplanes to fly our entire schedule! 30 widebodies and 70 narrowbodies maybe? Do you guys really think that on October 1st they're going to start GRADUALLY working their way down to proper staffing levels for 100 airplanes when we're currently staffed for 700 airplanes? If traffic doesn't increase dramatically between now and then, they're gonna attack this operation with a f'ing meat cleaver, and that includes pilots.
People who think they'll be limited to a certain amount of furloughs because of their limited ability to train displaced pilots are delusional! They could furlough 5000 pilots on October 1st and not have ANY trouble still operating 100 airplanes' worth of flying. If they thought they were going to be short of narrowbody FO's after that furlough, they could displace and train several hundred of them before October 1st even gets here. All the rest of the 1000's of displacements could be done over the next year or two.
Cadetdrivr, your quote: "UAL will need to displace and train more senior pilots before the most junior ones can be furloughed." is completely false. That's how things work in a normal slowdown. What we're dealing with now doesn't even remotely resemble a normal slowdown. You don't "gradually" work your way from staffing for 700 airplanes down to staffing for 100 airplanes. You do it quickly or you end up in chapter 11.
Will we still be flying only 27,000 pax per day in October? Who knows? Even if it's twice or three times that, the point I'm making here is still valid. If people think the company is going to continue to absorb the cost of thousands of reserve pilots being paid 73 hours per month for not flying, they're just not thinking clearly.
Many people on this board don't seem to be grasping the severity of this situation. This is NOT a slowdown or a recession. This is a total collapse of air travel as a business. Hopefully it's temporary, but no one knows. Even if it is temporary, the damage being done to individuals' and business' ability to spend is breathtaking and unprecedented.
United reported that we flew 550,000 passengers a day in March 2019. In March 2020, we flew 27,000 per day! Our traffic right now is down 95%! AA and DL are reporting similar numbers. These figures are also corroborated by TSA's figures of how many passengers are being screened each day at US airports. Also down more than 95%.
United just announced that they're adjusting the May schedule to be only 10% of last May's schedule. All other things being equal, that means we probably only need 100 airplanes to fly our entire schedule! 30 widebodies and 70 narrowbodies maybe? Do you guys really think that on October 1st they're going to start GRADUALLY working their way down to proper staffing levels for 100 airplanes when we're currently staffed for 700 airplanes? If traffic doesn't increase dramatically between now and then, they're gonna attack this operation with a f'ing meat cleaver, and that includes pilots.
People who think they'll be limited to a certain amount of furloughs because of their limited ability to train displaced pilots are delusional! They could furlough 5000 pilots on October 1st and not have ANY trouble still operating 100 airplanes' worth of flying. If they thought they were going to be short of narrowbody FO's after that furlough, they could displace and train several hundred of them before October 1st even gets here. All the rest of the 1000's of displacements could be done over the next year or two.
Cadetdrivr, your quote: "UAL will need to displace and train more senior pilots before the most junior ones can be furloughed." is completely false. That's how things work in a normal slowdown. What we're dealing with now doesn't even remotely resemble a normal slowdown. You don't "gradually" work your way from staffing for 700 airplanes down to staffing for 100 airplanes. You do it quickly or you end up in chapter 11.
Will we still be flying only 27,000 pax per day in October? Who knows? Even if it's twice or three times that, the point I'm making here is still valid. If people think the company is going to continue to absorb the cost of thousands of reserve pilots being paid 73 hours per month for not flying, they're just not thinking clearly.
With all due respect
I have a question for you set aside the airline business
if all come to be true as you describe above , which state will separate from the union first , California or Texas ?
because US of A will collapse if all of the above take place
let’s be serious
by oct you will probably have 60-65 percent of the traffic you had last October 2019 and yes a loss to operate every day for every airline
people will not just turn to cave man and isolate themselves inside
ask 10 people around you and 7 out of 10 I think will say they will go on with their lives enough of this and that’s the American spirit and the American way I believe
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