UAL Care Act details
04-16-2020, 07:30 AM
#21
Banned
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 1,358
poorly worded post. I meant that we could be 4,000 fat and easily furlough a bunch of people.
04-16-2020, 07:39 AM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Position: Captain
Posts: 1,561
1000 oct 1st and 125 per month for 10 months
total 2250 and that is about 18% worst case scenario
And evaluate the needs for summer 2022 around oct 2021
Which I think will lead to recalls to begin January 2022 of about 75 per month for the foreseen future and to cover retirements
04-16-2020, 08:29 AM
#24
Permanent Reserve
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,682
04-16-2020, 08:41 AM
#25
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 75
btw, The depression lasted for a decade. We’re a month or two in to a health crisis and people will start going back to work in a few weeks. Some of those who will return to work will need to travel by air. Many outside salespeople are through “teleconferencing” and need to get to see their customers in person, or risk losing them
If you could go back in time to December 1929 and tell people via national radio, “don’t worry, businesses will reopen in about 10 days”, do you see how your “depression level” statement is really quite hysterical?
I heard the virus can live for 3 days on the surface of the sun!
04-16-2020, 08:48 AM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2012
Posts: 291
These are unprecedented times and no one really knows what the world will look like in two months, let alone in two years. An interesting fact though: the 1918 flu pandemic had little impact on the economy once it was over. Of course the world looked a lot different then.
http://twitter.com/brucebartlett/sta...862071296?s=21
Quote from a Fed paper, linked above: “Burns and Mitchell (1946, 109) found a recession of “exceptional brevity and moderate amplitude.” I confirm their judgment by examining a variety of high-frequency data. Industrial output fell sharply but rebounded within months. Retail seemed little affected and there is no evidence of increased business failures or stressed financial system. Cross-sectional data from the coal industry documents the short-lived impact of the epidemic on labor supply. The Armistice possibly prolonged the 1918 recession, short as it was, by injecting momentary uncertainty. Interventions to hinder the contagion were brief (typically a month) and there is some evidence that interventions made a difference for economic outcomes.”
http://twitter.com/brucebartlett/sta...862071296?s=21
Quote from a Fed paper, linked above: “Burns and Mitchell (1946, 109) found a recession of “exceptional brevity and moderate amplitude.” I confirm their judgment by examining a variety of high-frequency data. Industrial output fell sharply but rebounded within months. Retail seemed little affected and there is no evidence of increased business failures or stressed financial system. Cross-sectional data from the coal industry documents the short-lived impact of the epidemic on labor supply. The Armistice possibly prolonged the 1918 recession, short as it was, by injecting momentary uncertainty. Interventions to hinder the contagion were brief (typically a month) and there is some evidence that interventions made a difference for economic outcomes.”
04-16-2020, 08:52 AM
#27
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 75
furloughs going back to 1999 longevity?
20 years of industry activity-gone?
Delta, Southwest, and American will have to do similar amounts of furloughing ...the other airlines will evaporate.... now you’re talking about removing almost 1 Trillion dollars from a national economy that reopened a few weeks ago and with people wanting to fly.
now throw in the fact that a vaccine is LIKELY to be available for frontline healthcare workers this fall
how do you substantiate this wild guess of yours that seems to only be spreading panic and fear for no reason?
04-16-2020, 08:57 AM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,085
Last year the drum beat started getting loud over the airline industry contribution to global emissions. Flight “shaming” even began kicking up on social media. I can’t help wondering if, under the don’t let a crisis go to waste mantra, the climate cult will gain the political leverage to cap / tax aviation emissions in such a way that future recovery and growth after Covid is muted.
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