Originally Posted by nopac6

They could furlough 5000 pilots on October 1st and not have ANY trouble still operating 100 airplanes' worth of flying. If they thought they were going to be short of narrowbody FO's after that furlough, they could displace and train several hundred of them before October 1st even gets here. All the rest of the 1000's of displacements could be done over the next year or two.

Originally Posted by nopac6

Nonsense. There's no reason United couldn't come out of this 40 to 50% smaller than we are now and still be a viable business. Your threat of liquidation is absurd. And this fixation with the idea that furlough rate is somehow limited because of TK capacity is also ridiculous.

Many people on this board don't seem to be grasping the severity of this situation. This is NOT a slowdown or a recession. This is a total collapse of air travel as a business. Hopefully it's temporary, but no one knows. Even if it is temporary, the damage being done to individuals' and business' ability to spend is breathtaking and unprecedented.

United reported that we flew 550,000 passengers a day in March 2019. In March 2020, we flew 27,000 per day! Our traffic right now is down 95%! AA and DL are reporting similar numbers. These figures are also corroborated by TSA's figures of how many passengers are being screened each day at US airports. Also down more than 95%.

United just announced that they're adjusting the May schedule to be only 10% of last May's schedule. All other things being equal, that means we probably only need 100 airplanes to fly our entire schedule! 30 widebodies and 70 narrowbodies maybe? Do you guys really think that on October 1st they're going to start GRADUALLY working their way down to proper staffing levels for 100 airplanes when we're currently staffed for 700 airplanes? If traffic doesn't increase dramatically between now and then, they're gonna attack this operation with a f'ing meat cleaver, and that includes pilots.

People who think they'll be limited to a certain amount of furloughs because of their limited ability to train displaced pilots are delusional! They could furlough 5000 pilots on October 1st and not have ANY trouble still operating 100 airplanes' worth of flying. If they thought they were going to be short of narrowbody FO's after that furlough, they could displace and train several hundred of them before October 1st even gets here. All the rest of the 1000's of displacements could be done over the next year or two.

Cadetdrivr, your quote: "UAL will need to displace and train more senior pilots before the most junior ones can be furloughed." is completely false. That's how things work in a normal slowdown. What we're dealing with now doesn't even remotely resemble a normal slowdown. You don't "gradually" work your way from staffing for 700 airplanes down to staffing for 100 airplanes. You do it quickly or you end up in chapter 11.

Will we still be flying only 27,000 pax per day in October? Who knows? Even if it's twice or three times that, the point I'm making here is still valid. If people think the company is going to continue to absorb the cost of thousands of reserve pilots being paid 73 hours per month for not flying, they're just not thinking clearly.

Originally Posted by JoePatroni

They could if they tore up the contract, otherwise not a chance in hell.

Originally Posted by 89Pistons

The point of my original reply to you was to try to stop you from spreading false hope.

I never made a prediction on furlough numbers. Never will. The point of me mentioning that number isn't based on any insider information. It's only based on my understanding of the contract as it relates to displacements, the seniority demographics of each fleet, and how displacements have gone when there have been simultaneous displacements on every fleet in the company. I was here when that happened. And I can see how it's different this time.

I pointed that number out to you so that you could see that it wouldn't take a massive amount of training events to furlough in large chunks.

Originally Posted by nopac6

Nonsense. There's no reason United couldn't come out of this 40 to 50% smaller than we are now and still be a viable business. Your threat of liquidation is absurd. And this fixation with the idea that furlough rate is somehow limited because of TK capacity is also ridiculous.

Many people on this board don't seem to be grasping the severity of this situation. This is NOT a slowdown or a recession. This is a total collapse of air travel as a business. Hopefully it's temporary, but no one knows. Even if it is temporary, the damage being done to individuals' and business' ability to spend is breathtaking and unprecedented.

United reported that we flew 550,000 passengers a day in March 2019. In March 2020, we flew 27,000 per day! Our traffic right now is down 95%! AA and DL are reporting similar numbers. These figures are also corroborated by TSA's figures of how many passengers are being screened each day at US airports. Also down more than 95%.

United just announced that they're adjusting the May schedule to be only 10% of last May's schedule. All other things being equal, that means we probably only need 100 airplanes to fly our entire schedule! 30 widebodies and 70 narrowbodies maybe? Do you guys really think that on October 1st they're going to start GRADUALLY working their way down to proper staffing levels for 100 airplanes when we're currently staffed for 700 airplanes? If traffic doesn't increase dramatically between now and then, they're gonna attack this operation with a f'ing meat cleaver, and that includes pilots.

People who think they'll be limited to a certain amount of furloughs because of their limited ability to train displaced pilots are delusional! They could furlough 5000 pilots on October 1st and not have ANY trouble still operating 100 airplanes' worth of flying. If they thought they were going to be short of narrowbody FO's after that furlough, they could displace and train several hundred of them before October 1st even gets here. All the rest of the 1000's of displacements could be done over the next year or two.

Cadetdrivr, your quote: "UAL will need to displace and train more senior pilots before the most junior ones can be furloughed." is completely false. That's how things work in a normal slowdown. What we're dealing with now doesn't even remotely resemble a normal slowdown. You don't "gradually" work your way from staffing for 700 airplanes down to staffing for 100 airplanes. You do it quickly or you end up in chapter 11.

Will we still be flying only 27,000 pax per day in October? Who knows? Even if it's twice or three times that, the point I'm making here is still valid. If people think the company is going to continue to absorb the cost of thousands of reserve pilots being paid 73 hours per month for not flying, they're just not thinking clearly.

Originally Posted by Half wing

I love how your condescending, not so rosy outlook has stayed exactly the same for years. I think MOP knows a little more about the demographics of fleets, how the displacements, furloughs, training will work, etc. The stuff you talk about is pretty obvious and you act like no one knows this stuff already. MOP asked you for some numbers. I think the point you were trying to make can be summed up in a post I made 2 weeks ago.

“The junior 737 CA is 11101, junior 320 CA is 11659. Junior 787 FO is 12884. The junior 777 FO is 13032. Only 4 777 FO’s junior to 12884. There are 72 777 and 787 FO’s Junior to 11659. There are 132 787 and 777 FO’s and 320 CA’s junior to 11101. First displacements may be targeted around these numbers.”

Obviously, it makes sense to do a chop at 11100 to save the ensuing bump game. Still, MOP’s prediction of a 1000 Furloughs at first followed by about 100 a month is a good wag. If a handful 737 PI’s get furloughed the amount of qual crews goes down even more than 60/mo. Takes some time to make new PI’s.

Originally Posted by Sniper66

With all due respect
I have a question for you set aside the airline business

if all come to be true as you describe above , which state will separate from the union first , California or Texas ?
because US of A will collapse if all of the above take place



let’s be serious

by oct you will probably have 60-65 percent of the traffic you had last October 2019 and yes a loss to operate every day for every airline
people will not just turn to cave man and isolate themselves inside
ask 10 people around you and 7 out of 10 I think will say they will go on with their lives enough of this and that’s the American spirit and the American way I believe

Originally Posted by duvie

My question is that when the public has largely forgotten about this in two years and is obsessed with some natural disaster or the tiger king de jour... will all you dooms-dayers delete your accounts and admit that you didn’t have anything intelligent to add to add, other than above average intelligence and wildly fearful imaginations.

I don’t know what next summer looks like, but neither does anybody else. Super computer modeling or not. So just enjoy today. If this thing really turns into rolling quarantines for a couple years, we’ll all have plenty of time to be fearful and miserable, why be that way now while we’re still making full pay, getting to the airport in record time, pushing 10 minutes early and riding in first class every other leg?

Originally Posted by nopac6

You’re right, none of us know what the future holds. Which is why I’m looking at what’s happening NOW. My point is that if things don’t improve significantly from what we’re seeing NOW, the company can easily furlough 5000+ immediately come October 1st. There are many on here saying that we’re somehow immune to those kinds of cutbacks because of the training situation. Total 100% BS. If traffic doesn’t improve substantially, they’ll do what they have to to stop the bleeding and they won’t be sitting around calculating whether it “makes financial sense in the long run.” They won’t have that luxury.

I agree with your point that there’s no point in dwelling on this and making ourselves miserable but that’s not what I’m doing. I’m trying to add another viewpoint to counter the people who can’t seem to come to grips with reality.