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Oil plunges: Another $1B in UA savings

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Old 03-08-2020, 10:21 PM
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Default Oil plunges: Another $1B in UA savings

This weekend alone, United's potential fuel savings have reached $1,500,000,000.

$28 WTI
$32 Brent

Oil prices were plunging by nearly 25 percent late Sunday, triggering broader global market losses, as a dispute among producers could lead an economyalready weakened by coronavirus facing a major oversupply of crude.

Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were firmly in correction territory, down over 12 percent from their recent all-time highs.

Brent crude, the international standard, lost $11.17, or 24.7 percent, to $34.10 per barrel, as of 10:15 p.m. Eastern time Sunday after earlier touching its lowest price since 2016.
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Old 03-08-2020, 10:23 PM
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Default Oil plunges: Another $1B in UA savings

I wonder if some rampant hedging will be going on. Saudis flooding the market to **** off Russia/OPEC.
This could very well offset losses due to loss of travel demand and gain vast savings in fuel.

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Old 03-08-2020, 10:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Captain Nemo
I wonder if some rampant hedging will be going on. Saudis flooding the market to **** off OPEC.


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Mutually assured destruction between Putin and the Saudis. Neither of them can sustain this. Guess we will see who blinks.
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Old 03-08-2020, 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Pivotman
This weekend alone, United's potential fuel savings have reached $1,500,000,000.

$28 WTI
$32 Brent

.
That will be great if we fly the same rpm’s as a month ago. Question is, how much does this “savings” offset the lesser revenue?
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Old 03-09-2020, 12:53 AM
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Houston, we have problem.
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Old 03-09-2020, 07:49 AM
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Originally Posted by BMEP100
That will be great if we fly the same rpm’s as a month ago. Question is, how much does this “savings” offset the lesser revenue?
Good point. If we make less revenue and or we fly thousands of less hours due to reduced schedules does that mean we actually saved that much cash this year? Seems like the an
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Old 03-09-2020, 08:11 AM
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Originally Posted by JimLaheyTPS
Good point. If we make less revenue and or we fly thousands of less hours due to reduced schedules does that mean we actually saved that much cash this year? Seems like the an

Well it's still better than expensive gas right? 2 questions: 1) Are we already hedged at a higher price and 2) Do we have the cash to actually take advantage of a hedge? We may be trying to save every penny we can.
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Old 03-09-2020, 08:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Pivotman
This weekend alone, United's potential fuel savings have reached $1,500,000,000.

$28 WTI
$32 Brent

Oil prices were plunging by nearly 25 percent late Sunday, triggering broader global market losses, as a dispute among producers could lead an economyalready weakened by coronavirus facing a major oversupply of crude.

Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were firmly in correction territory, down over 12 percent from their recent all-time highs.

Brent crude, the international standard, lost $11.17, or 24.7 percent, to $34.10 per barrel, as of 10:15 p.m. Eastern time Sunday after earlier touching its lowest price since 2016.
Very glad to have a little heads up on this one!!!!
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Old 03-09-2020, 10:30 AM
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Originally Posted by WhisperJet
Well it's still better than expensive gas right? 2 questions: 1) Are we already hedged at a higher price and 2) Do we have the cash to actually take advantage of a hedge? We may be trying to save every penny we can.

Page 5 of United's annual report:

Our operational and financial results can be significantly impacted by changes in the price and availability of aircraft fuel. To provide adequate supplies of fuel, the Company routinely enters into purchase contracts that are customarily indexed to market prices for aircraft fuel, and the Company generally has some ability to cover short-term fuel supply and infrastructure disruptions at certain major demand locations. The price of aircraft fuel has fluctuated substantially in the past several years. The Company's current strategy is to not enter into transactions to hedge its fuel consumption, although the Company regularly reviews its strategy based on market conditions and other factors.


As for the second part of your question, United's probably already quietly put on hold every CapEx we can in order to preserve cash along with checking on lines of credit.

I have no idea what our current cash burn looks like but it's probably breathtaking. The airline business has huge fixed costs.
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Old 03-09-2020, 10:52 AM
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Originally Posted by jamesholzhauer
Mutually assured destruction between Putin and the Saudis. Neither of them can sustain this. Guess we will see who blinks.
Saudi can sustain this a lot longer than Russia. Saudi is the lowest cost oil producer.
US frackers, Canada, Venezuela, and a few others are going to be crushed by this.
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