Chance of furlough?
03-04-2020, 09:57 AM
#71
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You'd have to be the worst disciplined financial idiot to buy stuff now while banking on upgrade/conditions 2-3 yrs from now.
03-04-2020, 10:17 AM
#72
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This website shows UAL will lose 808 pilots due to mandatory retirement in 2020-2021.
At what long-term contraction do you think furloughing would be an increasing possibility? 20% of the pilots right now is about 2,600 pilots. If the airline contracted 20% in the foreseeable future would that warrant a furlough? I'm sure my math is overly simplistic for such a fluid situation and complex business model, but at least for me a rough understanding and using numbers gives me a better feeling than opinions.
At what long-term contraction do you think furloughing would be an increasing possibility? 20% of the pilots right now is about 2,600 pilots. If the airline contracted 20% in the foreseeable future would that warrant a furlough? I'm sure my math is overly simplistic for such a fluid situation and complex business model, but at least for me a rough understanding and using numbers gives me a better feeling than opinions.
03-04-2020, 10:19 AM
#73
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03-04-2020, 11:42 AM
#75
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03-04-2020, 11:47 AM
#76
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This should blow over long before we ever reach that point. The bottom line is that this is a crazy business. Normal is basically the difference between periods of boom and bust. I don’t fear a furlough at all. We may go through a period of low line values, no fly lines, or even the retirement of some of our older planes, but our high attrition will take care of that.
03-04-2020, 11:51 AM
#77
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A read of UPA Section 1-I is in order. The question becomes how many pilots are hired after January 23rd, 2016. By one interpretation they could be furloughed with less than 90 days notice. Those hired before January 23rd, 2016 will require 90 days notice.
There are several other protections, however, the phrase "in the event a Circumstance Beyond the Company’s Control is the cause of such noncompliance." would give me pause.
There are several other protections, however, the phrase "in the event a Circumstance Beyond the Company’s Control is the cause of such noncompliance." would give me pause.
I do believe we had a “No Furlough” clause in our 2000 CBA. That didn’t stop United from furloughing anyone after 9/11. When they start using phrases like Force Majeure and the threat of a Chapter 11 filing. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting that is coming but it has happened.
03-04-2020, 12:03 PM
#78
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03-04-2020, 12:15 PM
#79
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I could be, but the over the top doom and gloom that some are spreading isn’t helping anyone either. I still don’t see a furlough due to the cost involved and high attrition. We could retire aircraft and shrink with attrition, but I’m not concerned about a furlough. I may get bumped off of my cushy WB gig, some may be on reserve for much longer than anticipated, but I doubt anyone who is already on the property is going to be on the street any time soon. Most of us have been down this road before and we survived, just as we will survive this. The sky is not falling.
03-04-2020, 12:22 PM
#80
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I could be, but the over the top doom and gloom that some are spreading isn’t helping anyone either. I still don’t see a furlough due to the cost involved and high attrition. We could retire aircraft and shrink with attrition, but I’m not concerned about a furlough. I may get bumped off of my cushy WB gig, some may be on reserve for much longer than anticipated, but I doubt anyone who is already on the property is going to be on the street any time soon. Most of us have been down this road before and we survived, just as we will survive this. The sky is not falling.
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