Originally Posted by Itsajob

Once this is over hindsight will show that public hysteria did more damage to the economy than the actual virus ever could have. This isn’t simply the common flu, but there is no reason to clear the shelves of bottled water and toilet paper. It has been blown way out of proportion. By the time this is over the Max will be back and hiring will continue until the next crisis. For the younger pilots on the list, enjoy the experience, you’re going to see it again during your career.

Originally Posted by N6279P

Most of us have already seen it; it’s called age 65.

Originally Posted by Itsajob

In my career there was massive industry wide hiring following a period of furloughs. This went right up to 9/11, then furloughs, bankruptcies, massive outsourcing to the regionals, age 65, mergers........ This job is really good up until the day that it isn’t, then after a dark period, it gets really good again. The thing that doesn’t seem to change is how pilots seem to think that the gravy days are the norm, when the volatility of this career actually is. People should arrange their financial house accordingly.

Originally Posted by AntiPeter

My apologies if my prediction caused angst, I was attempting to respond to the original question.

I didn’t think that the 70% chance of a furlough prediction in the next 6 months would promote hysteria, given the fact:

35% stock decline
Parked planes
Voluntary leave and reduction measures
Postponed/Cancelled classes
Recalled guidance

Large segments of the population responding irrationally and unpredictability directly affecting our industry and the macroeconomy.

I was reading some quotes from the UN WHO Director yesterday. From what I interpreted he acknowledged the human response to the virus will have more of an impact than the virus itself.

Trying to predict human behavior is very difficult. I’ve spent 25 years in this industry, a furlough would
be a real hardship, to say the least. When humans reject science and rationality bad things happen.

A 70% prediction means there is a 30% chance there won’t be a furlough in 6 months. Hopefully I’ll be wrong, but the original post asked what the chances of a furlough are. I gave it my best shot.

What is your prediction?

Originally Posted by Bahamasflyer

I mostly agree, however.....

Wasn’t the boom in the late 90s and very early 2000s due to growth and not retirements?

Anyone know historically how many mandatory retirements there were from say......1997 to 2001?

The difference with this boom (the last month not withstanding) is that there are massive mandatory retirements, which WILL happen, vs growth which could happen till it stops.

Originally Posted by Itsajob

The hiring wave in the late 90’s was due largely to the dot com economy and growth. I don’t recall the retirement numbers back then, but that was before all of the mergers, so the retirements were spread out between smaller list. We have a bunch of retirements heading our way. Furloughs are very expensive and need to last years to be cost effective. This deal would have to get much worse and be forecast to last for years before a furlough ever becomes a remote possibility. Pilot hiring will be paused for a while, no growth, etc. until this blows over. After that we go full speed until the next crisis.