Chance of furlough?
03-03-2020, 08:13 AM
#41
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2014
Position: Left Seat
Posts: 149
I would bet no buyouts at the top...attrition will fix that problem fairly quickly. If and when we shrink the bumps will come to the FO wide body seat. When they bump back to narrowbody at that point the company will have to read the global tea leaves and decide whether to furlough.
03-03-2020, 08:51 AM
#44
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Position: 756 left...
Posts: 472
hopefully there will be another oj or something to take the media focus off this.
Lots of hyperventilating going on and not too much logic being applied.
I'm hopeful that by the summer we will be back on track.
03-03-2020, 12:20 PM
#45
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: B737 CAPT IAH
Posts: 1,130
One can only hope.......
Historically speaking, furloughs only made sense with a very certain likelihood of 24 months of furlough once all the bump training is factored in. I don’t think we are there by any stretch.
Add to that retirements continue going forward. That is a “given” in the manpower landscape.
If I were management, I’d ground the 50 seaters ASAP and be ready to increase frequency with larger aircraft when demand comes back. Also might be a great time to get a great deal on that NSNB.
But, I ain’t mgmt......
Lee
Historically speaking, furloughs only made sense with a very certain likelihood of 24 months of furlough once all the bump training is factored in. I don’t think we are there by any stretch.
Add to that retirements continue going forward. That is a “given” in the manpower landscape.
If I were management, I’d ground the 50 seaters ASAP and be ready to increase frequency with larger aircraft when demand comes back. Also might be a great time to get a great deal on that NSNB.
But, I ain’t mgmt......
Lee
03-03-2020, 01:41 PM
#47
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: B767
Posts: 1,901
This is an example of the external threats ALL of us are facing over the next few weeks/months:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/3/21...-test-positive
Businesses like Ford are banning all international and domestic travel. I've already seen the affects of this kind of behavior on air traffic in Asia with my own eyes. It's creepy and honestly very concerning walking around empty air terminals in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc.
Hopefully the US domestic market absorbs a lot of the hit, but certainly this is something to take very seriously. Cathay Pacific has parked 2/3 of their fleets, and Hong Kong airlines is almost certainly going out of business shortly.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/3/21...-test-positive
Businesses like Ford are banning all international and domestic travel. I've already seen the affects of this kind of behavior on air traffic in Asia with my own eyes. It's creepy and honestly very concerning walking around empty air terminals in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc.
Hopefully the US domestic market absorbs a lot of the hit, but certainly this is something to take very seriously. Cathay Pacific has parked 2/3 of their fleets, and Hong Kong airlines is almost certainly going out of business shortly.
03-03-2020, 02:43 PM
#48
On Reserve
Joined APC: Mar 2012
Posts: 10
I count atleast 36 wide body aircraft not utilized as normal as of now. While all the outward attention is on this and the excess FO’s as a result even if the jets fly domestic my biggest concern is what advanced bookings look like system-wide stretching into the summer.
Business demand has likely tanked and while it is still winter a lot of people book their leisure summer trips now. I agree the company can weather a month or 2 of this and the current plan is reinstated flying by 5/1 but if we see a huge medium to long term booking hit (2-3 months from now)that’s the worst case impact I see and then I agree with the percentages. Hoping I am wrong.
Business demand has likely tanked and while it is still winter a lot of people book their leisure summer trips now. I agree the company can weather a month or 2 of this and the current plan is reinstated flying by 5/1 but if we see a huge medium to long term booking hit (2-3 months from now)that’s the worst case impact I see and then I agree with the percentages. Hoping I am wrong.
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