Chance of furlough?
03-03-2020, 05:09 AM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,337
You complain about outlets that promote hysteria, but what do your comments regarding furlough accomplish if not the same thing?
03-03-2020, 05:30 AM
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2017
Position: Pilot
Posts: 531
I didn’t think that the 70% chance of a furlough prediction in the next 6 months would promote hysteria, given the fact:
35% stock decline
Parked planes
Voluntary leave and reduction measures
Postponed/Cancelled classes
Recalled guidance
Large segments of the population responding irrationally and unpredictability directly affecting our industry and the macroeconomy.
I was reading some quotes from the UN WHO Director yesterday. From what I interpreted he acknowledged the human response to the virus will have more of an impact than the virus itself.
Trying to predict human behavior is very difficult. I’ve spent 25 years in this industry, a furlough would
be a real hardship, to say the least. When humans reject science and rationality bad things happen.
A 70% prediction means there is a 30% chance there won’t be a furlough in 6 months. Hopefully I’ll be wrong, but the original post asked what the chances of a furlough are. I gave it my best shot.
What is your prediction?
03-03-2020, 06:59 AM
#35
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: 756 Left Side
Posts: 1,629
People need to calm the **** down...
PLEASE, please read (or re-read) MoP's post. Spot on
Also think about how this plays into Managements hand with regards to our contract negotiations.
IF we announce we are parking airplanes due to the CV.. and IF the company reaches out to the union about some sort of Furlough mitigation and IF all that happens and the CV hasn't peaked..
ONLY THEN should the bottom 10% start their 60 day worry clock.
Interesting that no other major (or even national) carrier has suspended hiring.
I get it, with the Max's still being parked, maybe we hired a bit much betting they would be back in the air by now.
No Fly lines are probably cheaper than furloughing..
But again, just the word 'Furlough' sparks fear within some of the pilot group. The company knows that and knows that it might be a negotiation tool to try and use.
Just my opinion.
No Math to back it up~
LOL
FS, FP & FtC
Motch
PLEASE, please read (or re-read) MoP's post. Spot on
Everyone needs to Relax. The company has no idea what’s going on with this virus. As of today all of our routes will be back by May. Get concerned when the company says we will return next summer. That means they have made a long term plan.
this is not 9/11. 9/11 the company was losing a million dollars a day and was headed for bankruptcy. 9/11 sped it up and overnight all aircraft that required a flight engineer were gone. 2172 furloughs but a lot of those were FE. The company went from 10,00 to 8,000 pilots getting rid of the third pilot. Then went bankrupt anyway.
this is not 2008. The 1437 would have been significantly less if the same day the markets collapsed they didn’t announce that everyone gets 5 more years at the top.
this is not 1979 when deregulation caused furloughs.
this is more the hiring freeze in the early 90s when the economy slowed.
the company at this point has no long term plan though I’m sure plan A-F exist. One of those plans will include a furlough but furloughs are expensive. The retraining from top to bottom plus the displacements that cause base changes, the company has to pay to move you.....also the scope limitations per the UPA are expensive. Furlough is not in the conversation yet nor is it close. Backwards movement? You bet. If this drags into the summer there will be displacements of some sort......but we will continue to furlough off the top every single day.
this is not 9/11. 9/11 the company was losing a million dollars a day and was headed for bankruptcy. 9/11 sped it up and overnight all aircraft that required a flight engineer were gone. 2172 furloughs but a lot of those were FE. The company went from 10,00 to 8,000 pilots getting rid of the third pilot. Then went bankrupt anyway.
this is not 2008. The 1437 would have been significantly less if the same day the markets collapsed they didn’t announce that everyone gets 5 more years at the top.
this is not 1979 when deregulation caused furloughs.
this is more the hiring freeze in the early 90s when the economy slowed.
the company at this point has no long term plan though I’m sure plan A-F exist. One of those plans will include a furlough but furloughs are expensive. The retraining from top to bottom plus the displacements that cause base changes, the company has to pay to move you.....also the scope limitations per the UPA are expensive. Furlough is not in the conversation yet nor is it close. Backwards movement? You bet. If this drags into the summer there will be displacements of some sort......but we will continue to furlough off the top every single day.
IF we announce we are parking airplanes due to the CV.. and IF the company reaches out to the union about some sort of Furlough mitigation and IF all that happens and the CV hasn't peaked..
ONLY THEN should the bottom 10% start their 60 day worry clock.
Interesting that no other major (or even national) carrier has suspended hiring.
I get it, with the Max's still being parked, maybe we hired a bit much betting they would be back in the air by now.
No Fly lines are probably cheaper than furloughing..
But again, just the word 'Furlough' sparks fear within some of the pilot group. The company knows that and knows that it might be a negotiation tool to try and use.
Just my opinion.
No Math to back it up~
LOL
FS, FP & FtC
Motch
03-03-2020, 07:17 AM
#36
Banned
Joined APC: May 2014
Position: Tom’s Whipping boy.
Posts: 1,182
Training UP, is far less expensive than training down (as in a furlough). An early out offer might be well received except for one thing.The R&I committee has done a terrible job of scheduling and holding retirement seminars. When they do schedule them, it is too late for many to bid around it. Even their own committee volunteers acknowledge this.
So, retirement is a major lifestyle change and all the benefits and issues around it are complicated. People don’t like making big decisions with too many open questions. If the company does come up with an early out, vs. a furlough, it may not be as well received.
The R&I committee needs to get out in front of this.
The fed made an emergency rate cut today, which is not good for retirees.
So, retirement is a major lifestyle change and all the benefits and issues around it are complicated. People don’t like making big decisions with too many open questions. If the company does come up with an early out, vs. a furlough, it may not be as well received.
The R&I committee needs to get out in front of this.
The fed made an emergency rate cut today, which is not good for retirees.
03-03-2020, 07:26 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
Training UP, is far less expensive than training down (as in a furlough). An early out offer might be well received except for one thing.The R&I committee has done a terrible job of scheduling and holding retirement seminars. When they do schedule them, it is too late for many to bid around it. Even their own committee volunteers acknowledge this.
So, retirement is a major lifestyle change and all the benefits and issues around it are complicated. People don’t like making big decisions with too many open questions. If the company does come up with an early out, vs. a furlough, it may not be as well received.
The R&I committee needs to get out in front of this.
The fed made an emergency rate cut today, which is not good for retirees.
So, retirement is a major lifestyle change and all the benefits and issues around it are complicated. People don’t like making big decisions with too many open questions. If the company does come up with an early out, vs. a furlough, it may not be as well received.
The R&I committee needs to get out in front of this.
The fed made an emergency rate cut today, which is not good for retirees.
03-03-2020, 07:40 AM
#40
Banned
Joined APC: May 2014
Position: Tom’s Whipping boy.
Posts: 1,182
Depending on his heritage, may determine how ready he/she is to take an early out. Legacy CAL guys have a lump sum waiting for them. Now that interest rates are falling. and expected to fall further, as opposed to a month ago where rates were expected to rise, equates to higher lump sum, if taken later than sooner.
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