Chance of furlough?
03-07-2020, 03:32 PM
#202
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 104
Not really. Israel just announced they’re going into lockdown and turning away flights from the usa soon. That’s probably 5-6 airplanes with no place to go (3 flights per day). The main consequence of that is a LOT of extra wide body f/o’s . The extra captains will be mitigated through retirements but not the f/o’s. Multiply that by all the international flights flying around right now with 150-200 empty seats and you have a crap ton of junior wide body f/o’s in surplus. Even if they try to use some of those wide bodies on domestic routes you still have lots of f/o’s in surplus because domestic flying won’t require augmentation.
As far as “astronomical” training costs from a furlough, again, not really. The bottom 1500-2000 wide buddy f/o’s get bumped down to narrow body f/o and current narrow body f/o’s get furloughed. That’s only 1 training event during the contraction. And most of the contractual protections don’t apply to the bottom 4000 or so pilots (hired after Jan 2016).
i don’t mean to **** on the parade but anybody in the bottom 2000 who isn’t getting ready for the worst isn’t being realistic.
As far as “astronomical” training costs from a furlough, again, not really. The bottom 1500-2000 wide buddy f/o’s get bumped down to narrow body f/o and current narrow body f/o’s get furloughed. That’s only 1 training event during the contraction. And most of the contractual protections don’t apply to the bottom 4000 or so pilots (hired after Jan 2016).
i don’t mean to **** on the parade but anybody in the bottom 2000 who isn’t getting ready for the worst isn’t being realistic.
03-07-2020, 04:14 PM
#203
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: B767
Posts: 1,901
How many since summer of '18? Just curious where I would have been.
I think you guys are going to be fine, and hopefully things start going back to normal in the next few weeks. Fingers crossed for all of us in the industry, stuff like this sucks to even contemplate.
I think you guys are going to be fine, and hopefully things start going back to normal in the next few weeks. Fingers crossed for all of us in the industry, stuff like this sucks to even contemplate.
03-07-2020, 04:20 PM
#204
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Meh. Concurrently surplus a few EWR, SFO, DCA, and LAX NB CAs and that option disappears for a lot of the junior WB FOs.
03-07-2020, 04:37 PM
#205
Stuck Mic
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Posts: 1,059
need to look at the contract as far as furlough goes, but couldn’t senior pilots in say those WB FO positions take the displacement in lieu of a junior pilot and put themself in a NB CA position. Then the company would have to displace again and after a few training events the chips will finally lay flat.
03-07-2020, 04:51 PM
#206
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 104
need to look at the contract as far as furlough goes, but couldn’t senior pilots in say those WB FO positions take the displacement in lieu of a junior pilot and put themself in a NB CA position. Then the company would have to displace again and after a few training events the chips will finally lay flat.
03-07-2020, 04:57 PM
#208
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2010
Posts: 166
What i disagree with is this: when the company publishes a wide body captain vacancy, there’s a belief that it creates 7 or 8 move ups. That might be true during expansion, but when people automatically assume that the reverse is true during contraction, i don’t think that’s right. It depends on where the surplus actually is and how senior those people are.
03-07-2020, 05:03 PM
#209
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2010
Posts: 166
https://www.timesofisrael.com/netany...me-us-flights/
the article says they’ll announce it Saturday but I’ve been told it’s a done deal. Regardless though, is there actually doubt in your mind that dozens of international city pairs are in serious jeopardy of being shut down? In addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc. Check all 3 flights to Sydney tonight. Check all the flights to Singapore for the next week if you need more convincing.
Last edited by nopac6; 03-07-2020 at 05:13 PM.
03-07-2020, 05:08 PM
#210
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 351
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