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Chance of furlough?

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Old 03-07-2020, 11:36 AM
  #191  
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Originally Posted by APC225
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Since the Company announced the current reduction in flying due to the corona virus, we've received many questions regarding furloughs. Currently, the short-term reduction in flying is causing multiple categories to be overstaffed. The Company has many contractual tools available to mitigate short term overstaffing situations including additional monthly vacation awards, COLAs, surplus reduction lines, lower LPA (line production averages), vacancy cancellations, etc.

Does this mean the Company is planning a furlough? No, and the Company is being aggressive to prevent them.

For furloughs to occur, the Company must consider the high cost of the contract implications listed below and the amount of time it takes to displace and re-train pilots down through the system to eventually furlough from the bottom of the list. The same process applies when recalling- they must slowly bid and re-train all those pilots back up the ladder. This process is difficult by design and is an extremely expensive and cumbersome process that the Company does not undertake lightly. The Company would need to project that this overstaffing situation would last a significant period of time for a furlough to be seriously considered. Otherwise, it's cheaper and more efficient to carry the extra pilots than it is to go through the expense of furlough and recall.

In addition to the high cost of displacement, we have many items in our contract that discourage the Company from furloughing pilots.

The following are the numerous contractual provisions protecting our pilots from furlough:
Furloughs are like a bad marriage. It’s usually cheaper and the better decision to stay married to someone you don’t want to be with anymore.
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Old 03-07-2020, 11:49 AM
  #192  
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Originally Posted by nuball5
Furloughs are like a bad marriage. It’s usually cheaper and the better decision to stay married to someone you don’t want to be with anymore.
Agreed. Furloughs are really expensive to initiate, and also expensive a second time when recalls start. That turns into a bunch of training cycles. This is going to be a case of cheaper to keep her. I know that this is scary to the bottom of the list, but we are a long long way from needing to furlough.
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Old 03-07-2020, 12:11 PM
  #193  
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Originally Posted by nuball5
Furloughs are like a bad marriage. It’s usually cheaper and the better decision to stay married to someone you don’t want to be with anymore.
And done wrong, someone gets fired. LCAL furloughed one tranche too many and when the DoD came looking to pay premium dollars for Iraq War CRAF charters—sorry unable not enough pilots.
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Old 03-07-2020, 01:39 PM
  #194  
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Originally Posted by drywhitetoast
A full yellow airplane means an empty trailer park.
remind me, my captain once told me " were nothing but glorified transit bus drivers. Guys in purple and brown are just truck drivers in the air .''
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Old 03-07-2020, 01:49 PM
  #195  
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We are in uncharted territory right now so no one really knows... This will have a longer lasting impact than most realize. When/if liquidity becomes a concern there will be furloughs...
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Old 03-07-2020, 02:21 PM
  #196  
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Default Some perspective.

In the next 30 days we will “furlough” 37 pilots...

...off the top of the list. Attrition is our friend right now.
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Old 03-07-2020, 02:29 PM
  #197  
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Originally Posted by WhisperJet
In the next 30 days we will “furlough” 37 pilots...

...off the top of the list. Attrition is our friend right now.
we just have to hope that 67 doesn't come into play. We all seen how that worked out during our last economic down turn.
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Old 03-07-2020, 02:51 PM
  #198  
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Originally Posted by jaypilot21
we just have to hope that 67 doesn't come into play. We all seen how that worked out during our last economic down turn.

I could be “attritted early”
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Old 03-07-2020, 03:24 PM
  #199  
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Originally Posted by WhisperJet
In the next 30 days we will “furlough” 37 pilots...

...off the top of the list. Attrition is our friend right now.

Not really. Israel just announced they’re going into lockdown and turning away flights from the usa soon. That’s probably 5-6 airplanes with no place to go (3 flights per day). The main consequence of that is a LOT of extra wide body f/o’s . The extra captains will be mitigated through retirements but not the f/o’s. Multiply that by all the international flights flying around right now with 150-200 empty seats and you have a crap ton of junior wide body f/o’s in surplus. Even if they try to use some of those wide bodies on domestic routes you still have lots of f/o’s in surplus because domestic flying won’t require augmentation.

As far as “astronomical” training costs from a furlough, again, not really. The bottom 1500-2000 wide buddy f/o’s get bumped down to narrow body f/o and current narrow body f/o’s get furloughed. That’s only 1 training event during the contraction. And most of the contractual protections don’t apply to the bottom 4000 or so pilots (hired after Jan 2016).

i don’t mean to **** on the parade but anybody in the bottom 2000 who isn’t getting ready for the worst isn’t being realistic.
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Old 03-07-2020, 03:30 PM
  #200  
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Originally Posted by nopac6
Not really. Israel just announced they’re going into lockdown and turning away flights from the usa soon. That’s probably 5-6 airplanes with no place to go (3 flights per day). The main consequence of that is a LOT of extra wide body f/o’s . The extra captains will be mitigated through retirements but not the f/o’s. Multiply that by all the international flights flying around right now with 150-200 empty seats and you have a crap ton of junior wide body f/o’s in surplus. Even if they try to use some of those wide bodies on domestic routes you still have lots of f/o’s in surplus because domestic flying won’t require augmentation.

As far as “astronomical” training costs from a furlough, again, not really. The bottom 1500-2000 wide buddy f/o’s get bumped down to narrow body f/o and current narrow body f/o’s get furloughed. That’s only 1 training event during the contraction. And most of the contractual protections don’t apply to the bottom 4000 or so pilots (hired after Jan 2016).

i don’t mean to **** on the parade but anybody in the bottom 2000 who isn’t getting ready for the worst isn’t being realistic.
I hate to agree, but I think this is spot on. When they start bumping 777 FOs, senior pilots would have to take go to whatever the seniority of the junior pilots can hold, which means not much, so there won’t be volunteers. So the junior pilots will all be forced into 756 FO and smaller. Once there are too many of those, only then would the furlough.

Lets hope his blows over quickly.
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