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Old 11-02-2017, 08:30 AM
  #141  
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Originally Posted by davessn763
Do you remember the SPSC guys spouting the time value of money during the road shows?

How is not upgrading approximately 650 pilots this year to SNB pay worse than upgrading 650 pilots to LNB pay 3 years from now?

How about the new hires it would have generated?

This is basic math, money earned earlier in your career is always better.

I’m sticking with my original statement, anyway you look at it the cancellation(it was a cancellation we are never getting them)of the 65 737-700’s was bad for the pilot group, bad for the company.

Is there anyone of you that doesn’t think we aren’t going to be parking PW powered 757-200’s when the max’s show up?


Go look at the google fleet website and look at how old our fleet is. Do you think we are going to fly airplanes for 30+ years? Look at the backlog of orders at Boeing and airbus for narrow bodies. We are behind the power curve on renewing the narrowbody fleet, much less expanding it.
Well wait which is it, were they cancelled or deferred? You say we're never getting them, then say they'll replace the 75 (where have I heard that idiotic statement?).

Remember the whole "every 739 saves $2m per year over the 757 it replaces!" Campaign?? Notice we haven't heard that in oh... several years? Unless the maxipad has some serious performance hidden under that B1900 network of aerodynamic bandaids there's NFW.

As to the first comment about upgrades... short term thinking would support that. Hanging a 30 year old rusty boat anchor around your neck is never the way to start a marathon though, and we now know those airplanes weren't as cheap as rumor dictated. When the competition is buying (and taking delivery of) NEOS you don't buy an older inefficient POS to compete. Any upgrades they would've created would've been paid for multiple times over somewhere else.
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Old 11-02-2017, 09:01 AM
  #142  
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Originally Posted by Sunvox
Using the Min/Max bulletin and looking at active pilots we increased by 1000 pilots since 2014. Remember the Min/Max list counts actual active line pilots in each BES. I believe the list you are examining includes anyone with seniority rights and that includes pilots who are sick, furloughed, management, or otherwise not active on the line.
Apples/Oranges!
If we are talking about staffing and hiring, (which I am..) then looking at the Staffing Page on CCS is the tell all.

Yes, the min/max shows an increase of staffing. It should. More airplanes have shown up. But at the same time, if we are talking about overall pilot numbers at United, the min/max doesn't mean much. Keep in mind, it didn't matter if guys & gals where working/furloughed during the SLI.. all that mattered was that they were on the Seniority List.
We had 12155 at the end of the SLI, and now we have 12500.
Our pilot group has grown by a little less than 3% over the last 5 years.

On the flip side, we have hired 1906 pilots off the streets (which is a good thing!) and expect to continue to hire hundreds of pilots a year....
But thanks to efficiency and returning pilots, we haven't grown our list by 1906.
Those numbers are fact.

With 24 aircraft coming in 2018 (Hopefully).. I would expect a pilot list of 13000.

Motch
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Old 11-02-2017, 09:12 AM
  #143  
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Originally Posted by NYGiantsFan
Only way to bring more RJ's is to buy a regional and staple to the bottom... no way you can staff RJ flying at the regional level at its current state... cant even fill classes... you can bring all the RJ's to mainline. Otherwise, goodluck trying to fill the seats!
Wishful thinking but probably never going to happen.

Better idea is to connect with certain universities and Flight Schools and do what they are doing now, Flow Through and Preferred Hiring.

Just think of this-
We buy Regional X. 50 airplanes, 700 pilots.
Now we have to pay those pilots our rates. Our Retirement, our workrules.
What do you think that would cost vs. the current setup? double?!

Easier to have Regional X have a FT and PH and strict contractual limits that ensures United is protected if Regional X doesn't complete the flights they are contracted to fly. Didn't Delta sue one of their commuters a few years ago?

Motch
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Old 11-02-2017, 09:28 AM
  #144  
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Originally Posted by Dave Fitzgerald
I don't know how much longer Delta is going to be buying these. 220% tariff will be hard to swallow. If I were at Delta, I wouldn't be counting on these deliveries.
I'll gladly take a bet that Delta takes delivery of those aircraft!

As 'Shrek' mentioned, the Airbus Deal through a monkey wrench into one of the arguments.
Plus, the tariff is meaningless until December 19, when the final ruling is suppose to come out.

Throw in the fact that the Canadian Government has now stated that -

Justin Trudeau to Boeing: Stop suing Bombardier - Sep. 18, 2017

AW&ST 12 Oct 2017 had a great article about this issue.. and the possible ramifications.

I expect to see those CS100's flying in Delta colors next year. If not, I expect a hell of a trade war and bunch of lawsuits.
Delta suing Boeing? Delta moving towards Airbus?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZuMe5RvxPQ

Motch

PS) Sad to watch that P51 crash like that~
PPS) My Delta Forum friends will get it!
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Old 11-02-2017, 09:48 AM
  #145  
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Originally Posted by Grumble
Well wait which is it, were they cancelled or deferred? You say we're never getting them, then say they'll replace the 75 (where have I heard that idiotic statement?).

Remember the whole "every 739 saves $2m per year over the 757 it replaces!" Campaign?? Notice we haven't heard that in oh... several years? Unless the maxipad has some serious performance hidden under that B1900 network of aerodynamic bandaids there's NFW.
Well the $2M number is not a static number and is always changing, and probably narrowed slightly the last few years with cheap fuel. But if you actually think there any chance the 75 is cheaper to operate than a new 737, you might need to brush up on your physics. 757 is a lot heavier (more fuel) while carrying the same number of people ($$). No longer in production so parts aren't getting any cheaper. Yea the overhead panel is ancient design, so what....that does nothing for the bottom line. The wings are modern design (relatively speaking) which is really the most critical element aerodynamically. Delta seems to do ok with their Mad dogs, which are truly ancient. Do you seriously think if we replaced all our 73s with 75s we would make more money?
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Old 11-02-2017, 10:25 AM
  #146  
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Originally Posted by horrido27
Wishful thinking but probably never going to happen.

Better idea is to connect with certain universities and Flight Schools and do what they are doing now, Flow Through and Preferred Hiring.

Just think of this-
We buy Regional X. 50 airplanes, 700 pilots.
Now we have to pay those pilots our rates. Our Retirement, our workrules.
What do you think that would cost vs. the current setup? double?!

Easier to have Regional X have a FT and PH and strict contractual limits that ensures United is protected if Regional X doesn't complete the flights they are contracted to fly. Didn't Delta sue one of their commuters a few years ago?

Motch
What you're advocating makes sense, but is also dangerously close to the definition of a B scale. Do we want UAL pax on UAL metal or not?

Originally Posted by Knotcher
Well the $2M number is not a static number and is always changing, and probably narrowed slightly the last few years with cheap fuel. But if you actually think there any chance the 75 is cheaper to operate than a new 737, you might need to brush up on your physics. 757 is a lot heavier (more fuel) while carrying the same number of people ($$). No longer in production so parts aren't getting any cheaper. Yea the overhead panel is ancient design, so what....that does nothing for the bottom line. The wings are modern design (relatively speaking) which is really the most critical element aerodynamically. Delta seems to do ok with their Mad dogs, which are truly ancient. Do you seriously think if we replaced all our 73s with 75s we would make more money?
Ever notice where Delta flies their 75's? Hint: everywhere. They're flying 757's into Ind (with some mad dogs) while we're flying a mix of RJ's and gup/bus. Ever been to STT? Guess what AA and DAL fly in there while we're flying short guppies? Sure a 752 and a 739 may carry the same pink meat in the back, which one is carrying revenue cargo along with them?
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Old 11-02-2017, 11:38 AM
  #147  
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Originally Posted by Grumble
What you're advocating makes sense, but is also dangerously close to the definition of a B scale. Do we want UAL pax on UAL metal or not?



Ever notice where Delta flies their 75's? Hint: everywhere. They're flying 757's into Ind (with some mad dogs) while we're flying a mix of RJ's and gup/bus. Ever been to STT? Guess what AA and DAL fly in there while we're flying short guppies? Sure a 752 and a 739 may carry the same pink meat in the back, which one is carrying revenue cargo along with them?
They fly them simply because they inherited them, and may cheaper for them to keep than replace them for now. Both aircraft have the same diameter fuselage, and neither aircraft are big enough for cargo containers...cargo is negligible for the routes we are talking about, which is mostly domestic, usually mail or other small potato stuff. The NG is more economical to operate for pretty much all routes in the aircraft's range. There is a reason why airlines stopped buying the 757 and boeing stopped building it, this is nothing new. You can't slam the 737 for being ancient and then be a cheerleader for an aircraft designed in 1979.

Last edited by Knotcher; 11-02-2017 at 11:49 AM.
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Old 11-02-2017, 04:24 PM
  #148  
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Originally Posted by Knotcher
They fly them simply because they inherited them, and may cheaper for them to keep than replace them for now. Both aircraft have the same diameter fuselage, and neither aircraft are big enough for cargo containers...cargo is negligible for the routes we are talking about, which is mostly domestic, usually mail or other small potato stuff. The NG is more economical to operate for pretty much all routes in the aircraft's range. There is a reason why airlines stopped buying the 757 and boeing stopped building it, this is nothing new. You can't slam the 737 for being ancient and then be a cheerleader for an aircraft designed in 1979.
That airplane designed in 79 could actually perform in all those routes. Like taking people into Den in the winter. Or a full boat to hawaii. Or a transcon without a fuel stop. It wasn't an RJ stretched into the freak show it's become.
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Old 11-02-2017, 04:51 PM
  #149  
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Originally Posted by Grumble
That airplane designed in 79 could actually perform in all those routes. Like taking people into Den in the winter. Or a full boat to hawaii. Or a transcon without a fuel stop. It wasn't an RJ stretched into the freak show it's become.
You can cherry pick all the weight restricted routes, but on all the other 98% of flights the 737 is not weight restricted and does just fine while making more money.

I think the 757 is way cooler but cool does not mean profitable.
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Old 11-02-2017, 05:32 PM
  #150  
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Originally Posted by Knotcher
You can cherry pick all the weight restricted routes, but on all the other 98% of flights the 737 is not weight restricted and does just fine while making more money.

I think the 757 is way cooler but cool does not mean profitable.
Make sure you tell DAL to replace all their 75's with the kickstand guppy, they may send you some profit sharing.
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