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Originally Posted by Grumble
(Post 2458797)
When we're any of the bold items ever announced? There was never a NSNB attached to the extension, and there was never an announcement for NK 19's. You listen to way to much rumor. As for the 700's, they were deferred into higher paying 737 models. Which is a good thing.
You have read section one of the contract right? You under stand that they're shuffling deck chairs against the scope limits? As for the Whales, they were coming up on heavy checks that were going to cost more than the airplanes were even worth. Something like $60m per hull just in labor is what I had heard. Hence why they're being parted out and cut up. I am familiar with section 1. Just pointing out how eager the company has been to reach the limits of outsourcing (with current technology), while being tepid about nb domestic growth. As motch pointed out, the scope choke was supposed to draw down the express fleet, yet it has grown. |
Originally Posted by RJDio
(Post 2458830)
I wouldn't consider myself a rumor monger. The stuff in bold are things management and/or the union has spouted off.
I am familiar with section 1. Just pointing out how eager the company has been to reach the limits of outsourcing (with current technology), while being tepid about nb domestic growth. As motch pointed out, the scope choke was supposed to draw down the express fleet, yet it has grown. |
Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets
(Post 2458772)
Man good think you weren’t hired here 20 years ago.......if you can’t Handel 2 years of GROWTH and record profits.
I'm just not buying hook, line, and sinker every huge proclamation the company announces or projects. I do hope things unfold more along the lines of your expectations. It'll do wonders to the 33 years I have left. |
Originally Posted by Sunvox
(Post 2458795)
Change in pilots by year 2014 - 2017:
I'm using Company Staffing. How many pilots are actually listed as 'United Pilots'- At the end of the SLI debates, we had 12155. Now we have 12500 (per Dec Staffing). As far as Fleet is concerned, we have gone from 693 at the end of 2013 to (expected) 742 for 2017. An increase of 49 aircraft. Positive! But at the end of the day, it would seem that we have increased the fleet size by 49 but only the pilot group by 345 pilots. Why?- Cause we had 1400+ pilots who were listed as Furloughed (Vol & InVol). Also pilots out on Mil Leave. Many have come back, more will come back next year. Company is using reserves more efficiently, and also scheduling crews and aircraft more efficiently. Good things all around, actually. Again, I'm betting (hoping) we end up 2018 with 13000 pilots. And a Fleet of 760+. That would be great for everyone involved~ Other question will be, what is the RJ count at the end of 2018? Higher or lower...? Motch |
Originally Posted by horrido27
(Post 2458849)
Again, I'm betting (hoping) we end up 2018 with 13000 pilots. And a Fleet of 760+. That would be great for everyone involved~ Other question will be, what is the RJ count at the end of 2018? Higher or lower...? Motch |
Originally Posted by Larry in TN
(Post 2458646)
We were never going to get 65 737-700 this year. We would have received more than the four -800s we did receive but not nearly all of them. We'd then be stuck with NG efficiency for 25 to 30 years dragging down LPV, the blended rate, and the value of MPG. Instead we get the same number of airplanes in the higher-paying -800/900 pay band. We don't currently have a pay rate for the 100 737-10 MAX airplanes on order but it won't be any less than the current -900 rate and could end up being more.
The 70/76 jets are scoped. They would have maxed out that scope allowance regardless of mainline orders. They're also a lot easier, and cheaper, to get rid of sooner when technology provides more efficient options. Per-unit cost for the smaller airplanes is higher. The 70/76 seaters are better than the 50 seaters. The 50 seaters are better than the 37-seat Dash-8. The smaller airplanes exist for two (economic) reasons. 1. The lower number of seats allows them to generate higher yields on certain routes because there are fewer "extra" seats that must be sold at deeply discounted fares. They can also use the smaller airplanes to increase frequency which also helps increase yield by giving the high-yield passenger the schedule options that they will pay for. 2. The overall cost of the flight is lower even though per-unit cost is higher. The CRJ-200s are allowing us to completely eliminate the Dash-8 fleet and retire the oldest E145s. Move your timeline out to this spring, after the Dash-8s are gone, and see what the count is for the UX fleet. 50-seaters are not here for the long-term. They are all old, inefficient, and expensive (per-unit cost) which is why they aren't making more new ones. The current low fuel prices has given them a temporary stay but they are old and they won't survive the next spike in oil. Kirby is hoping that we'll let him replace them with 76-seaters. We won't. Yeah, those MD-88s and MD-90s that DL has and the MD-80s that AA has, plus the 500+ 737-700 NG that SWA has have really put them way behind United. United has left everyone else in the dust with their emphasis on new tech airplanes... Also, our mainline capacity is still way below our competition. This is the number one issue where we lag our competition. DL has been aggressive about getting 100 seat aircraft to replace their MD-88s and 90s, and we sit idly by while United is left in the dust. Perhaps Kirby is still working for AA... I haven’t seen him do anything thus far to make United close the gap with DL or American. All he did was cancel an order for additional mainline aircraft and park the 747. All that and DL still crushed us by a billion this last quarter. So do you believe Kirby is the tortoise in this race? I’d like to think so, but more likely after another year of poor performance, he will be replaced and someone else will tell us he had no idea what he was doing. I’d like to be wrong, and I’m not a Debbie downer, but what he says and what he does don’t match up. It’s very rare that you see a competitor in this industry take the others by “surprise”. When u finally take delivery of any real “growth” aircraft, DL might be twice our size and SWA might surpass our numbers if their rumors are true. I wouldn’t doubt if wall street would like us to fail and let AA and DL pick up the pieces so there are only 2-3 competitors. They loved the last round of consolidation. Another round of consolidation won’t pass the government test unless one of us is in distress. United is a big ship, but we’ve had plenty of time to turn this ship around and we haven’t. We aren’t “competing”, we are just going through the motions to pretend we are competing. To compete, at some point we need to take the offense. For the last 7 years, all we’ve played is defense while DL grows in SEA, NYC, and Florida. SWA has been steadily growing. AA isn’t doing much better, but they are years behind United in the merger process and still eating our lunch. |
Originally Posted by Zoomie
(Post 2458920)
First of all, before Kirby was hired and our network guy fired, the plan was to bring on 65 737-700s in 2017, this year.
AA's and DL's old MD80 fleets are economical because they are paid for. That reduces fixed costs considerably. New airplanes are not and their financing comes at considerable cost. Financial statements released since the conversion of the order showed that the purchase price was higher than original speculated; around $30 million per airplane. This is all available in news articles from the time of the original order, and time of the conversion, found with a few Google searches. |
Here are the only confirmed plane arrivals for the next 12 months 16 more A319s, 4 more 777-300s, 4 more 787s. 24 planes is 3% and honestly I believe there are more coming that we do not yet know about.
http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/a...srgydxfkb.jpeg http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/a...sxdfigdik.jpeg http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/a...sxwkjiyc8.jpeg |
Originally Posted by horrido27
(Post 2458849)
Guess we're using different metrics to make our point.
I'm using Company Staffing. How many pilots are actually listed as 'United Pilots'- At the end of the SLI debates, we had 12155. Now we have 12500 (per Dec Staffing). As far as Fleet is concerned, we have gone from 693 at the end of 2013 to (expected) 742 for 2017. An increase of 49 aircraft. Positive! But at the end of the day, it would seem that we have increased the fleet size by 49 but only the pilot group by 345 pilots. Why?- Cause we had 1400+ pilots who were listed as Furloughed (Vol & InVol). Also pilots out on Mil Leave. Many have come back, more will come back next year. Company is using reserves more efficiently, and also scheduling crews and aircraft more efficiently. Good things all around, actually. Again, I'm betting (hoping) we end up 2018 with 13000 pilots. And a Fleet of 760+. That would be great for everyone involved~ Other question will be, what is the RJ count at the end of 2018? Higher or lower...? Motch I will add that I believe there are 3 factors contributing to improved overall efficiency. The first two I have already mentioned, rationalization and utilization, but I also think that the L-UAL pilots have eagerly adapted to the formula of picking up senior manning when times are tight. Previously pilots would end up with their names on a hand written list on the wall in Chicago ops if they worked overtime. Now that has changed. I, for one, am pleased. http://i927.photobucket.com/albums/a...s9pau3tfz.jpeg |
Originally Posted by Zoomie
(Post 2458920)
First of all, before Kirby was hired and our network guy fired, the plan was to bring on 65 737-700s in 2017, this year.
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