My Guess. United buying 757 replacement.
08-11-2017, 11:49 PM
#31
Squawking 2000
Joined APC: Jul 2015
Position: Skeptical
Posts: 737
Over 90%, probably over 95%, of all flights flown by the 757 were under 6 hours in length. There are a couple of great replacements for these flights, and they are 321 and UberGuppy. Replacing the few flights over 6 hours? How big is that market? Not very.
The big problem is cost. Even new build 757's would cost double what a 737 does. Why? Boeing never built more than a few 757's a month. They never got the economies of scale they got with the 737 (now 42 a month). When they sold 757's and NG's together, in the late 90's, the list price on the 757 was double the NG. (This is Boeings explanation, not mine)
Lets say Boeing spends a fortune on a MOM. They will have to amortize that cost over 1000 or so airframes. Airbus can sell A321LR's or A330NEO's for a song as their development cost is only slightly above zero.
The big problem is cost. Even new build 757's would cost double what a 737 does. Why? Boeing never built more than a few 757's a month. They never got the economies of scale they got with the 737 (now 42 a month). When they sold 757's and NG's together, in the late 90's, the list price on the 757 was double the NG. (This is Boeings explanation, not mine)
Lets say Boeing spends a fortune on a MOM. They will have to amortize that cost over 1000 or so airframes. Airbus can sell A321LR's or A330NEO's for a song as their development cost is only slightly above zero.
08-12-2017, 10:59 AM
#34
Don't say Guppy
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Position: Guppy driver
Posts: 1,926
Honestly, Probe - you and I are close in terms of thoughts so I urge you to go and read the redacted 10Q. It's so obvious what is going on that I'm almost embarrassed by the lack of understanding on the part of pilots here. To me it's like the SLI. I ran a thread where I was ridiculed and told I was smoking crack and wasting my time, but in the end I was 100% right in guessing my number and explaining how SLIs work (stovepiped category and class sorted by some seniority input).
United is buying a new as of yet unnamed Boeing plane. That is what the redacted information says. There is only one possibility.
United is buying a new as of yet unnamed Boeing plane. That is what the redacted information says. There is only one possibility.
If they hadn't done the MAX and MAX 10, they could have done a modern narrow body that could have been stretched into a 757 replacement. I don't see them doing a MAX 10 and a MOM. One or the other. They chose poorly, as did we when we ordered the MAX 10.
08-12-2017, 11:40 AM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2014
Position: 787 right
Posts: 504
I guess it is your relentless, sky is falling attitude (and subsequent, defensive denial when people call you on it) that irritates me. Looking at your post history validates your modus operandi without fail, over and over. Ignoring your posts should have been my first move before talking smack, so I will attempt to do that in the future. My apologies.
08-12-2017, 11:49 AM
#36
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Posts: 162
I guess it is your relentless, sky is falling attitude (and subsequent, defensive denial when people call you on it) that irritates me. Looking at your post history validates your modus operandi without fail, over and over. Ignoring your posts should have been my first move before talking smack, so I will attempt to do that in the future. My apologies.
Let's play nice boys.....or you both will have to put your toy airplanes away and be sent to your rooms....
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
08-12-2017, 01:54 PM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,808
So after we finish beating each other up over the inability to agree on the exact meaning of a redacted 10Q statement, then what?
Line pilots have zero input on how the bean counters allocate capital to purchase shiny new jets. The only thing that really matters (for pilots) is when are the bids out and for what bases.
Anything else is a helmet fire.
Line pilots have zero input on how the bean counters allocate capital to purchase shiny new jets. The only thing that really matters (for pilots) is when are the bids out and for what bases.
Anything else is a helmet fire.
08-13-2017, 05:49 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Position: EWR 777 Captain
Posts: 1,715
So after we finish beating each other up over the inability to agree on the exact meaning of a redacted 10Q statement, then what?
Line pilots have zero input on how the bean counters allocate capital to purchase shiny new jets. The only thing that really matters (for pilots) is when are the bids out and for what bases.
Anything else is a helmet fire.
Line pilots have zero input on how the bean counters allocate capital to purchase shiny new jets. The only thing that really matters (for pilots) is when are the bids out and for what bases.
Anything else is a helmet fire.
You're 100% right. A new plane from Boeing will not impact my life for years to come, and we as line pilots have no input or influence on such decisions, but in the world of interesting news for aviators, I would put a Boeing change of attitude towards building a 757 replacement as one bit of news that is interesting, and IF it turns out that the redacted 10Q offered a hint far in advance of the public announcement then that too is intriguing . . . at least to me.
08-13-2017, 05:56 AM
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Position: EWR 777 Captain
Posts: 1,715
And as a follow on, here's a post from UALPilotsForum that I found interesting:
Originally Posted by Andrew S.
Joe I've been thinking the same thing. Pretty big reach but logic is going in that direction. I think UAL eventually wants to reduce fleet types and go to an all Boeing fleet.
1. We are not getting the a350s; 777-300 has filled that roll. The only thing keeping us attached to the a350s are the motors (which are Rolls Royce Trent motors).
2. The power plant front runner for boeings MoM concept is RR "ultra fan" design; which is currently under development . My prediction (which is a stretch) is that we will roll our current Trent motor contract in with a large purchase of boeings MoM/RR engines. Why squabble over 35 sets of engines when you can secure appropriately 150 motors and solidify primary market share for that aircraft/mission. The time line fits pretty well. Our 756 fleet can and probably will last another 7 years. The release date for Boeings MoM is 2025.
3. United has such a large (and growing) disparity between airbus and Boeing. Our current order of 737 MAX aircraft is more than sufficient to retire our whole bus fleet over the next decade without much growth.
1. We are not getting the a350s; 777-300 has filled that roll. The only thing keeping us attached to the a350s are the motors (which are Rolls Royce Trent motors).
2. The power plant front runner for boeings MoM concept is RR "ultra fan" design; which is currently under development . My prediction (which is a stretch) is that we will roll our current Trent motor contract in with a large purchase of boeings MoM/RR engines. Why squabble over 35 sets of engines when you can secure appropriately 150 motors and solidify primary market share for that aircraft/mission. The time line fits pretty well. Our 756 fleet can and probably will last another 7 years. The release date for Boeings MoM is 2025.
3. United has such a large (and growing) disparity between airbus and Boeing. Our current order of 737 MAX aircraft is more than sufficient to retire our whole bus fleet over the next decade without much growth.
08-13-2017, 06:30 AM
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Position: EWR 777 Captain
Posts: 1,715
Searching the web I come up with some other interesting information:
https://twitter.com/jonostrower/stat...79674723188736
Boeing’s talking with airlines about a ‘797,’ and they like what they hear
The 767 is still being produced as a freighter. Perhaps the 797 will be a lighter, re-engined 767 with a new wing as well.
https://twitter.com/jonostrower/stat...79674723188736
Boeing’s talking with airlines about a ‘797,’ and they like what they hear
The 797, he said, “could be the airplane that creates the next phase of growth for the low-cost carriers.”
Plueger, who along with Udvar-Hazy consults closely with Boeing on new airplane concepts, said Boeing executives are projecting a market for 5,000 of these airplanes.
“I get the sense within Boeing Commercial that they want to launch,” Plueger said.
Plueger, who along with Udvar-Hazy consults closely with Boeing on new airplane concepts, said Boeing executives are projecting a market for 5,000 of these airplanes.
“I get the sense within Boeing Commercial that they want to launch,” Plueger said.
The concept Boeing currently favors, airline executives said, is a twin-aisle jet that can carry more than 200 passengers with a medium range of about 5,200 miles.
At an ISTAT panel discussion, John Kirby, vice president of capacity planning at Alaska Airlines, expressed potential interest in buying such a plane.
Daniel Pietrzak, managing director of fleet transactions at Delta Air Lines, said it could be an ideal plane for trans-Atlantic routes.
And Andrew Levy, executive vice president and chief financial officer at United Airlines, said his company is looking for a plane that can fly from its Newark hub deep into Europe, say to Berlin. He said Boeing’s concept has “a lot of merit.”
At an ISTAT panel discussion, John Kirby, vice president of capacity planning at Alaska Airlines, expressed potential interest in buying such a plane.
Daniel Pietrzak, managing director of fleet transactions at Delta Air Lines, said it could be an ideal plane for trans-Atlantic routes.
And Andrew Levy, executive vice president and chief financial officer at United Airlines, said his company is looking for a plane that can fly from its Newark hub deep into Europe, say to Berlin. He said Boeing’s concept has “a lot of merit.”
The 767 is still being produced as a freighter. Perhaps the 797 will be a lighter, re-engined 767 with a new wing as well.
Last edited by Sunvox; 08-13-2017 at 06:47 AM.
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