89Pistons

While we're making guesses I'll make one......

We won't take delivery of the 787-10s.

Probe

Over 90%, probably over 95%, of all flights flown by the 757 were under 6 hours in length. There are a couple of great replacements for these flights, and they are 321 and UberGuppy. Replacing the few flights over 6 hours? How big is that market? Not very.

The big problem is cost. Even new build 757's would cost double what a 737 does. Why? Boeing never built more than a few 757's a month. They never got the economies of scale they got with the 737 (now 42 a month). When they sold 757's and NG's together, in the late 90's, the list price on the 757 was double the NG. (This is Boeings explanation, not mine)

Lets say Boeing spends a fortune on a MOM. They will have to amortize that cost over 1000 or so airframes. Airbus can sell A321LR's or A330NEO's for a song as their development cost is only slightly above zero.

Unless Boeing can knock one out of the park with 25% lower seat costs on a new airframe, Airbus is going to win this round. Boeing slit their own throat 20 years ago by not putting taller landing gear on the NG. They spent all that money on a new wing, and then crippled the design with 30 year old landing gear.

I believe we will buy 787-10's. As many as we can get our hands on.

I think we will either get 321NEO LR's and/or more 787's (maybe used) to replace our transatlantic fleet. Good chance both.

Our post merger fleet is too complicated. We are parking the 400's and hopefully canceling the 350's. That leaves us with 737, 320, 756, and 787/777. Replacing the 756 fleet with a combo of 321NEO and 787 seems to me to make the most sense. Vastly simpler fleet.

On a lighter note, we just announced starting service to Paine Field. Maybe the ghost of El Jeffe past is giving Boeing employees a good deal for a good deal on new jets. The "Oscar" flight? LOL

Sunvox

Honestly, Probe - you and I are close in terms of thoughts so I urge you to go and read the redacted 10Q. It's so obvious what is going on that I'm almost embarrassed by the lack of understanding on the part of pilots here. To me it's like the SLI. I ran a thread where I was ridiculed and told I was smoking crack and wasting my time, but in the end I was 100% right in guessing my number and explaining how SLIs work (stovepiped category and class sorted by some seniority input).

United is buying a new as of yet unnamed Boeing plane. That is what the redacted information says. There is only one possibility.

82spukram

United is buying a new as of yet unnamed Boeing plane. That is what the redacted information says. There is only one possibility.


The 737 max 11.....

89Pistons

Embarrassed? Lack of understanding?

If the company does order some airplane that only exists on paper and has no price tag yet, so what?

cadetdrivr

Um, there are SEVERAL possibilities.

I agree you are certainly correct and UAL will order the MOM aircraft. IMHO, it's a done deal based on various UAL public statements.

However, that 10Q is also full of references to unusual MAX versions including aircraft mysteriously labeled "Special" and "Limited" and attached to various versions of the 7, 9, and 10.

The 10Q could easily be a smoking gun for the MOM, but it could also easily reference as of yet unannounced variants of the MAX.

It would certainly be consistent for Boeing to offer additional performance options as they have done so for most of their previous aircraft types. For example, UAL operates a "SFP" version of the 737-800 that differs from "stock" 800's in gross weight and runway performance that Boeing offered as a follow-on after the 800 was introduced.

There's plenty of moving parts here and to draw only one absolute conclusion based on heavily redacted data is an extraordinary claim.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Half wing

Well if this guess is anything like your displacement guesses you'd be wrong again. They finally have a seat plan for the 787-10 now. 318 seats. We are getting the first one I think in the 3rd or 4th quarter of '18 and leasing it back to Boeing. I think we won't start revenue flights on it until early '19 even though we will have it by late 18. I guess we'll see in about a year.

89Pistons

What did I get wrong about displacements? Oh, I get it. You must think we're finished with them.

You know what....we had firm orders and a seat plan for the 65 737-700s that we didn't take delivery of either.

Back to the displacements - the displacement that comes out in the next 10 or so days is small only because they are hoping that opening DEN 756 will help bail them out of the overstaff situation in LAX and SFO 787.

Half wing

It must suck to be you

89Pistons

What exactly did I say that upsets you enough to talk smack instead of answering the question I asked you?