757Driver

Amen 89. My buddy MOP's rose colored lenses seem perpetual. Kirby has stalled the airframe and we're slowly falling out of the sky.

Question for MOP, do you really think Kirby is doing a good job?

Those 737-700's are sure looking good now.

rp2pilot

I'm not MOP, but I think Kirby is doing a good job. Mainline capacity growth here this year outpaced Delta and American.. What other metric would you consider in making your assessment of relative merit? It takes a long time to turn a big ship, have some patience

gettinbumped

I won't contend whether Kirby is doing a good job or not; though I think the Basic Economy rollback and horrible Q3 performance predictions speak volumes, but the metric to look at is planned mainline capacity growth BEFORE Kirby and AFTER Kirby. WAY down, which I suspect is why our hiring is so slow. We were ramping up to staff the airline for the pre-Kirby plan. That was 61 more 737's coming this year, and A350's starting next year. The prior went to the 50 seater and the latter is TBD. With that planned capacity shift from mainline BACK to RJ's, we ended up fat on pilots overnight

John Carr

Kirb stomped......

rp2pilot

FROM IBD in July, "
That comes as the carrier on Tuesday said it expects capacity growth of 4% in the third quarter and kept its full-year outlook at 2.5%-3.5% growth. Meanwhile, Delta Air Lines (DAL) has said it plans to cap capacity growth at 1% this year, and American Airlines (AAL) sees full-year capacity growth of roughly 1.5%.”.

We don't operate in a vacuum and the economy isn't static so the metric of how we operate relative to our peers is more significant imo. After yesterday's announcement of significant tariffs on Bombardier, it'll be interesting to see if Delta will keep their CS order.

gettinbumped

You'll notice that capacity increase # was not broken out from mainline vs regional. We continue to see a shift from mainline to regional capacity under Kirby. Particularly a shift back into the 50 seat market that everyone else is exiting. That was my point, and was not unexpected based on his activity at AMR. This is why you see our current hiring not even covering retirements

rp2pilot

From Chicago Business Journal last month:
"United Airlines is definitely going mainline. The Chicago-based carrier's July operations report vividly demonstrates once again how United traffic is increasingly migrating to its mainline operations, where the carrier has shown great consistency in recent months in its improving on-time arrival metrics.

The July operations report released late Tuesday shows a whopping 10.9 percent increase in domestic mainline traffic in July compared to a year ago.
By the same token, regional flight traffic decreased 9.1 percent year over year.

Overall, domestic traffic for the month increased a healthy 7.1 percent year over year."

So far for the year, they've grown mainline and shrunk regional flying.. A better direction than years past, I believe.

MasterOfPuppets

I do think he is doing a good job. He doesn't seem to be bowing down to the investors and he is upping mainline flying on RJ routes. He is opening up new routes both domestically and internationally. I like that UA is finally competing again and not running and hiding. The airline seems to have new life breathed into it and other than a few of the constantly unhappy *cough 757Driver cough* we seem to be turning a corner in customer service.

I do think that he is going to ask for concessions when the contract comes due and I will tell him to pack sand, but we all already know that is going to happen. It is going to be a fight and Im ready for it. Just because I think he is running a good airline doesn't mean Im going to let him walk all over during negotiations.

Im not sure how much time you have left 757Driver, so you may be playing the short game. I understand your frustration at seeing aircraft deliveries pushed out, it prevents you from moving up the food chain. I get it. However I have a long time left and I like the way the long game is playing out. Buying 61 old generation 737-700 when we really need a 100 seater is pointless. Why make a 20 year investment at teh end of an aircrafts shelf life? Burning more gas on a heavier plane just because they were cheap? I have no idea what the break even is between a $20mil NG and a new -7max or 319NEO or NSNB but why break even when you can make a profit? The long game with aircraft orders and replacement strategies looks really solid to me. Its not rose colored glasses I have on, its written down and in action. I get that things can change but until they do Im happy.

More 50 seaters are gong away next year and a ton went away this year the Air Wisconsin RJs are not a significant add, I don't consider being flat a loss for us. Some of the routes we are now flying, especially out of ORD, would never survive without a 50 seater and Im even shocked they can support that much. It appears the 50 seaters are transitioning to the markets they should be in.

We replaced the 747s with 777-300s and ordered 4 more for next year so we didn't need the A350. We have now defined that mission as a replacement for 777-200s. Makes sense. I can't even list the amount of NEW and I mean entirely NEW, to either airline, routes we have started thanks to the 787. All 30 of them have been for growth and new opportunities, Many have been announced under Kirby.

We shut down hiring for 5 months . 5 months and the sky is falling? That is an insignificant blip on the radar of a 30 year career. We will hire again so Im not sure what the panic is. Who cares if they hire 1200 a year or 1 a year, as long as were not throwing people out the back I'm happy. My seniority will come soon enough Iv got time to wait. Kirby is completely changing the operation of United it takes time, there will be some stumbles but overall the trajectory is positive. Again if you are in the short game this looks like a **** sandwich but the long game looks good.

Don't mistake my positive outlook for weakness, I just see the future different than you and I like what I see, is that ok with you? Can I have an opinion or do I need to run it by you first to make sure I interject the proper amount of cynicism?

By the way ever single SkyWest pilot I have flown with and spoken too has been top notch...... I also think we should get a 100 seater even though the pay rate blows and fix it in 2019

webecheck

The max is 14% more efficient at cruise. The math can be done by anyone with a desire to spend the time. The fuel savings is significant when added up in its entirety. Incredibly significant, and more so with each creep up in fuel prices. Turning off the NG 700s was a very smart move. More airplanes is good, provided you can utilize them at the same rate as the rest of your operation, and with the same load factor. If not, hurts our PS to buy them.

757Driver

Although I disagree with your optimism, excellent, well thought out reply. I found one flaw though, we have more 50 seaters right now than we did last year and I have no clue as to why?