svergin

Does any of this prognostication take into account 6 more 777-300s to be delivered or 5 more 787-9s to be delivered, most of which by February? Remember we aren't canceling any cities for WB flying, we are adding them. So the parking of 7 routes the 747 flew are just being picked up by other airplanes.

And before someone says we parked 24 747s planes, but only getting 18 777-300 replacements, keep in mind that the company only really used 17 of those planes to fly 7 routes. The others were just sitting around or used for parts because of reliability of the 747.

Its not like we parked the 747 fleet and canceled all that flying, which is what these estimates are based on. Regardless of what the 787 or 777 fleet look like today, those fleet have to absorb all that 747 flying.

Not to mention we haven't had a vacancy bid for the LAX-SIN flying, which I think requires 2 Caps and 2 FOs, does it not?

It seems like everyone is over-pessimistic about bumps on the west coast, except in IAH, which I totally agree is overstaffed.

MasterOfPuppets

Yes as a matter of fact my WAG does take that into account.

I didn't mention any bumps from SFO 777 only IAH 777. In fact I think SFO 777 is understaffed in both seats especially in the FO seat and we should see a vacancy bid in both seats.

LAX SIN has been more than covered by the displacements, Don't forget about the LAX 777 displacement we had. Again that is why there will be no displacements in those seats, IF the company decides to absorb the 787 CAs that bump down to LAX from SFO. If the company does NOT want to absorb those CAs then they will bump to even out the seniority between SFO and LAX.

The 5 787-9s are already spoken for and they won't be in SFO. LAX - SIN needs 3 airplanes. DCA - PEK needs 2.5. DCA-GRU will come from IAH-EZE. AKL will come form XIY and MUC. KIX and HND are going back to the 777 so one of those can fly DEN-LHR.

The wild card will be what base flies DEN-NRT and DEN-LHR? LAX or SFO? Also the 777-300 is supposed to start SYD......where is that plane going to go? Will it stay in SFO or go to DCA for another route? Either way SFO is NOT going to grow but if DEN- NRT and LHR go to SFO then I would say there is no need to displace FOs.....but there are WAY to many CAs on the 787 in SFO.

svergin

I'm guessing the overstaffed base (SFO) will fly DEN-NRT and DEN-LHR.

Unless they open a DEN base, then all the DEN Captains and FOs who are already commuting to SFO, will just go back to DEN, and that would solve a lot of overstaffing problems.

cadetdrivr

That would be too obvious of a solution.

(Standby for a EWR 787 base that only operates out of DEN. )

Monkeyfly

SSC report claims company will use W trips to handle over staffing.
E.g. LAX NRT DEN NRT LAX or SFO LHR DEN LHR SFO.