Boeing Aviator

What are the thoughts on this forum that we will ultimately take delivery of the 53 firm widebodies on order either as 350-1000's, 350-900's, A330' Neos, 777-300's, 777X or 787's, used 777-300's in various combinations? Not saying specifically A350's but just the total additional wide body lift.

My point is 53 additional widebodies (if not all replacement) represents significant potiential widebody growth. What's the over/under that the long anticipated fleet plan will be announced at the upcoming Paris Airshow?

Ni hao

I keep hearing Paris for some announcement.

TK rumor 11am today is the 350 is coming (who knows right)

C11DCA

We are supposed to start getting the 787-10 next year, beyond that I think we will defer additional widebodies for 3-5 years. Heck we might even delay those. Then we start to replace the 767's and earlier 777's. If you plan a 25-30 year service life, you can see the replacement potential needed.

And this isn't even factoring in whatever MOM airplane Boeing or Airbus will introduce that would replace the 757/767.

But we aren't going to grow by 53 widebodies. I would be shocked if we grew by 15.

Just one opinion of course.

Grumble

We have a supppsed RR contract that needs to be satisfied with the 35 A350's... the 787-10 uses Rolls Royce engines. Just sayin...

Turn the 350 orders into 321 NEOS, use the 787-8's (and add a few), there's your 756 replacement plus the A350/RR situation is satisfied and the airframes are replaced with 787-10's.

So we'll probably announce an order for 250 76 seat RJs and more code share agreements.

Probe

I think the 787-10's will replace lUAL's early 777's. They don't have the range that the other aircraft have, but they are going to be smokin' efficient on 10-12 hour flights. Perfect for the Atlantic and S America.

I also don't see us growing by a lot of wide bodies. We are flying 777's more domestically than we used to, until those airplanes go away. The large Chinese airlines are selling tickets at unbelievably low prices. I don't think we will grow much more in Asia, at least for a while. Or, I could be wrong.

Grumble

We're flying cattle car 777's domestically because it prints money. Hub to hub flights are always full (anecdotal observation commuting), and without a full load of gas and cargo the CASM has got to be about as cheap as it gets. Coupled to that a 777 replaces 3-5 landing slots worth of narrow bodies and one gate.... which frees up the narrow bodies to go out and reclaim the RJ flying. We keep launching new Pacific routes too, did you miss the LAX-SIN?

Take a look at SFO-EWR and back. Two years ago when this place was Jeffed up that was all guppies. Now it's 757's and 777's. Same to ORD, BOS, etc. Busses and guppies are free to reclaim RJ flying. I've lost count how many new destinations we've added in the last 8 months... Jax, sav, RDU, sba, chs, eug, mfr, dsm.... it goes on and on. Remember the BS "every guppy that replaces a 757 saves $2m?" line from the previous regime? Yeah when's the last time you heard that?

Take a look around dude, things are good and the future is bright, but the mistakes of the last administration need to be unwound.

Sunvox

More internet speculation, but one might try reading between the lines of the latest investor presentation. In that presentation they showed a slide of capital outlays by year and broke out the airplane costs. The slide says we peaked in 2017, but here's the interesting part. The slide shows planned expenditures for 2018 of $2.2 to $2.4 billion. The amount is a hair more than 2016 when we took delivery of 29 or so planes total. Long story short 2018 must have deliveries of more than 5 787s if the plan is to spend $2.4 billion on new planes.

C11DCA

Joe,

2018 also sees the arrival of the latest super uber guppy, the Max9!!!!

It's gonna be huuuuge!

Boeing Aviator

True, but how many could potentially be 737 Max's from the 161 firm orders? Anyone the 737 Max's delivery schedule?

cadetdrivr

So you've seen this show before, huh?