Are retirements running faster than expected?
03-07-2017, 06:41 AM
#1
Gets Weekends Off
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Joined APC: Sep 2010
Position: EWR 777 Captain
Posts: 1,715
Are retirements running faster than expected?
Three years ago I printed out a snap shot of my expected seniority progression. I used a website online. I forget the name right now, maybe someone else remembers. Anyways, the point is it projected my seniority for March 2017 at 5400 based purely on retirements. My number just broke 5000 and is now 4982. Thats over a year faster than the original projection. Anybody else notice this? Are that many guys going out on medical or is there something else in the way the numbers are calculated. I took the 4982 number off my vacancy bid page.
03-07-2017, 07:14 AM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2007
Position: A320 Captain
Posts: 1,982
Joe,
That website used all the pilots on the seniority list...it didn't exclude non-active pilots. I wish I saved my snapshot but I believe my results are similar to yours.
Our pilot head count has been pretty static the last few years. It's always around 12,500 give or take a hundred. I still think hiring is barely keeping pace with retirements.
That website used all the pilots on the seniority list...it didn't exclude non-active pilots. I wish I saved my snapshot but I believe my results are similar to yours.
Our pilot head count has been pretty static the last few years. It's always around 12,500 give or take a hundred. I still think hiring is barely keeping pace with retirements.
03-07-2017, 07:25 AM
#7
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Joined APC: May 2014
Position: 787 right
Posts: 504
03-07-2017, 07:29 AM
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
03-07-2017, 08:47 AM
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Position: B777 CA
Posts: 753
Three years ago I printed out a snap shot of my expected seniority progression. I used a website online. I forget the name right now, maybe someone else remembers. Anyways, the point is it projected my seniority for March 2017 at 5400 based purely on retirements. My number just broke 5000 and is now 4982. Thats over a year faster than the original projection. Anybody else notice this? Are that many guys going out on medical or is there something else in the way the numbers are calculated. I took the 4982 number off my vacancy bid page.
Pilots on any type of leave - sick leave, LTD, some sort of personal or company leave are accounted for on monthly staffing and are double bid on vacancy and displacement bids. Even if someone is on LTD for decades and they are never coming back, until they retire, quit or pass away they are accounted for in staffing, vacancy bids and the seniority list.
I've tracked my seniority the same way you have for years and I'm ahead of my projected seniority by a couple hundred numbers and I'm just under 2000 on our seniority list.
Since the only way someone comes off our seniority list, staffing and vacancy bids is by retiring, quitting, get fired or pass away my assumption is a fair amount of early Pre age 65 retirements.
Your monthly staffing number is updated every month. It's your most accurate current system seniority number.
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