Mesabah

No there will never be a fully automated passenger aircraft in anyone's lifetime. The reason is cost, while perhaps technically possible, it would cost way more than anyone here who says there will be automated planes thinks. As an engineer I can tell you that strict tolerances cost big money. Massive amounts would have to be spent to even build one aircraft to the specs required to replace a human. You can read that as perhaps trillions of dollars to produce one aircraft to the 99.9998% reliability of humans, perhaps maybe even in to the quadrillion dollar range. The reason is that the sum of all aircraft parts must live up to that kind of reliability tolerances, A 747 has 1 million parts. Could you imagine the task to build a perfect airplane and maintain it. It would cost millions of dollars to operate, most human crews cost about $600 an hour. Humans are cheap labor, I suspect manufacturers will keep saying it is possible only to keep human labor costs down.

KC10 FATboy

Skyhigh, I'm sorry but I strongly disagree with you.

You make it sound like that as a professional airline pilot, I do not think or make any decisions while on the job. You know this is certainly not the case. Even with automation, flow charts, QRHs, a dispatcher, and a maintenance worker within the push of a button on a cell phone or ACARs, I assure you that we make potential life or death decisions on every flight that.

Your comments and beliefs are what's cheapening this profession.

III Corps

Granted, one does not need to be an engineer and that many training programs are washes. But one does need to know more than 'push the button' or 'put out the light'.

So, earlier you said pilots are trained to not think and are just robots and now you say that acting in a non-robot fashion creates more problems. Which is it?
First we know check rides and line checks are not indicative of real world behavior. They are merely a tool for some measures. Sim training is most skill and knowledge based. It is not a thinking course.

I can see why you left aviation. What I can't understand is how you got into training. Anyway, push the button until something happens? Funny and again, I can see why you left aviation.

If I may.. what type aircraft were you flying and instructing on? And for whom. Your experience may well serve as a great example.

SkyHigh

My whole point is not to make anyone feel bad but to point out that changes in hiring practices, advances in automation and increased standardization is making it so that most anyone can fly an airliner if they want to.

In the past the pipeline to ground school was fairly exclusive. Pilots had to have devoted their lives to the profession and to have come from a specific social and economic class. They had to fit inside of specific height and weight charted requirements. Their vision had to be non-corrected 20/20. Applicants went through a rigorous mental and physical examination that often lasted for several days.

The art of flying itself was developed over many years of challenging hands on flying. After making it to the majors new hires then spent much of a decade in the flight engineers seat prior to getting their hands on the controls. Today automation has supplanted skill and standardization has taken the place of leadership and self reliance.

Most anyone today can become an airline pilot if their want it bad enough. The open floodgates of new career entrants has changed the nature of career competition from what you can do to what you are willing to do for the company. Airlines have learned that the latest generation of computer wiz kids can quickly figure out the automation and can effectively get by without having any real natural pilot ability or experience.

The results are that pilot wages have gone down. As technology advances pilot status, respect and ability will continue to decline. Captain Sully said that true pilots are leaving the profession. My position it essentially the same. The airlines and professional flying is transforming into a religion and legions of martyrs are more than willing to work for nothing. Airlines as well are more than happy to oblige by lowering wages along with minimums.

They do not need to hire pilots anymore. Eventually technology will advance so that the pilot in command can manage several flights from a command center on the ground while one or two back up pilots sit with arms folded in the plane watching as the flight unfolds. I am sure that they will feel good about the job they are doing as well but it will not compare to what pilots of the past were.

Skyhigh

III Corps

That is an argument? No doubt, the guys coming out of DC-3s made the same argument when they did away with the tailwheel, the AN beacons and put in autopilots.


Your opinion is one thing. Fact and research say otherwise.

I would enjoy reading those studies and findings. Sources?

And maybe they will do as well monitoring as at Bhopol, 3 Mile Island and of course, NW188.

flyvne1971

I did not read all the posts but let me tell you what happened to me and the auto pilot (computer).

We were climbing out of 20,000 feet on auto pilot for 30,000 feet. All the sudden, with no bells, dings or oral indications, the auto pilot "capt"ured the "alt"titude and began a pitch up. Going through 5 degrees and approaching 10, we took control away from the COMPUTER to keep it from stalling.

If we were not there, people could have died.

We may see an unmanned aircraft, but there will always be someone there to supervise.

Thank you and always watch your auto pilot.

SkyHigh

Perhaps a better term for the future of aviation would be Undermanned Air Vehicle. Things can go wrong. I am not saying that a jetliner with 195 passengers will be allowed to push from the gate with no one up front.

Pilots (or pilot) will still be up there as they are now but they will have a greatly reduced role and will not actually fly the plane unless it is an emergency. They can sit there and watch the flight unfold, make PA announcements, adjust the cabin temperature and the like.

It is not some hair brained idea. The director of the FAA fully believes that it is coming.

Skyhigh

III Corps

Well that little piece of information trumps any future debate. It must be so.

(we just seem to get farther and farther into opinion without substantiating data.)

FPG120

I'm reminded of the old joke (and apologies if it was already posted to this thread...)

Airliners of the future will be crewed by a pilot and a big dog.

The pilot is there to monitor the systems and look out of the windows.
The big dog is there to bite him if he touches anything...

And so it goes.

Planespotta

Sky, don't take this the wrong way, but if everyone on these forums agreed with you, would you still post?

This thread mysteriously comes off as another attempt to justify your decision to leave the profession.