Large Q3 Loss in forcast, what’s next.
08-03-2024, 03:13 PM
#1
New Hire
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Feb 2022
Position: A320
Posts: 8
Large Q3 Loss in forcast, what’s next.
With Q3 estimates so grim, somewhere in the ballpark of -300m, what’s next?
Product:
They say profits from new products can take upwards of a year to realize. I hope the new products do well, I’m not sure it is enough to be honest. It doesn’t quite seem as premium as they think it is, and our operational performance will shy away potential new customers.
If the brand wants to be looked at as more premium the customer service must follow. WIth contracted employees above and below the wing everywhere except FLL, this seems difficult to standardize. The employees don’t quite have as much skin in the game and don’t have as much of an incentive to create a nice experience.
Fleet:
Orders for 2025/26 are deferred until after 2030. This is probably needed while we get our financials in order, however, I think it could have helped with all the groundings next two years. Fly the new deliveries with the new product and make money, while Pratt pays a daily fee for the parked airplanes. Now we have to scale back the network and hope they do it right.
We’ve already performed sale lease backs on many planes. This does give additional liquidity now, and one could say this is just a financial transaction. However, if it were to come do bankruptcy we really don’t have many assets. Previously, If a bankruptcy acquisition occurred, we had a larger order book. Now, with the recent sale leaseback agreement of our 27/28 orders to AerCap we have even less assets and order book.. so less appealing to another airline looking to acquire us as a whole naturally or in a bankruptcy. This isn’t a good position to be in asset wise.
Faulty Engines:
-2024 EOY, there will be 30-35 parked
-2025 High of 67, with an average of 50 parked
-2026 According to the town hall, an average of 50 parked through the end of 2026
Pilots:
End of 2024 we will have 215 A/C, 35 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2760.
2025/26 we will have 219 A/C, avg of 50 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2535.
With 3450 pilots on property today, we are clearly overstaffed. Attrition isn’t as high as planned with most airlines not hiring for the remainder of the year. I can’t help but think there will be further furloughs?
Debt:
In addition to Quarterly losses for the foreseeable future, we have ALOT of debt coming due. If it’s not refinanced, we’ll be on a path to bankruptcy to reorganize. If it is refinanced and pushed down the road, we are still on a path to bankruptcy with the current trend and forecast of losses.
I just don’t see how this can work. Am I missing something? Can someone make this work?
Product:
They say profits from new products can take upwards of a year to realize. I hope the new products do well, I’m not sure it is enough to be honest. It doesn’t quite seem as premium as they think it is, and our operational performance will shy away potential new customers.
If the brand wants to be looked at as more premium the customer service must follow. WIth contracted employees above and below the wing everywhere except FLL, this seems difficult to standardize. The employees don’t quite have as much skin in the game and don’t have as much of an incentive to create a nice experience.
Fleet:
Orders for 2025/26 are deferred until after 2030. This is probably needed while we get our financials in order, however, I think it could have helped with all the groundings next two years. Fly the new deliveries with the new product and make money, while Pratt pays a daily fee for the parked airplanes. Now we have to scale back the network and hope they do it right.
We’ve already performed sale lease backs on many planes. This does give additional liquidity now, and one could say this is just a financial transaction. However, if it were to come do bankruptcy we really don’t have many assets. Previously, If a bankruptcy acquisition occurred, we had a larger order book. Now, with the recent sale leaseback agreement of our 27/28 orders to AerCap we have even less assets and order book.. so less appealing to another airline looking to acquire us as a whole naturally or in a bankruptcy. This isn’t a good position to be in asset wise.
Faulty Engines:
-2024 EOY, there will be 30-35 parked
-2025 High of 67, with an average of 50 parked
-2026 According to the town hall, an average of 50 parked through the end of 2026
Pilots:
End of 2024 we will have 215 A/C, 35 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2760.
2025/26 we will have 219 A/C, avg of 50 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2535.
With 3450 pilots on property today, we are clearly overstaffed. Attrition isn’t as high as planned with most airlines not hiring for the remainder of the year. I can’t help but think there will be further furloughs?
Debt:
In addition to Quarterly losses for the foreseeable future, we have ALOT of debt coming due. If it’s not refinanced, we’ll be on a path to bankruptcy to reorganize. If it is refinanced and pushed down the road, we are still on a path to bankruptcy with the current trend and forecast of losses.
I just don’t see how this can work. Am I missing something? Can someone make this work?
08-03-2024, 07:47 PM
#3
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2023
Posts: 358
08-03-2024, 08:09 PM
#4
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2011
Position: DiverDriver
Posts: 315
With Q3 estimates so grim, somewhere in the ballpark of -300m, what’s next?
Product:
They say profits from new products can take upwards of a year to realize. I hope the new products do well, I’m not sure it is enough to be honest. It doesn’t quite seem as premium as they think it is, and our operational performance will shy away potential new customers.
If the brand wants to be looked at as more premium the customer service must follow. WIth contracted employees above and below the wing everywhere except FLL, this seems difficult to standardize. The employees don’t quite have as much skin in the game and don’t have as much of an incentive to create a nice experience.
Fleet:
Orders for 2025/26 are deferred until after 2030. This is probably needed while we get our financials in order, however, I think it could have helped with all the groundings next two years. Fly the new deliveries with the new product and make money, while Pratt pays a daily fee for the parked airplanes. Now we have to scale back the network and hope they do it right.
We’ve already performed sale lease backs on many planes. This does give additional liquidity now, and one could say this is just a financial transaction. However, if it were to come do bankruptcy we really don’t have many assets. Previously, If a bankruptcy acquisition occurred, we had a larger order book. Now, with the recent sale leaseback agreement of our 27/28 orders to AerCap we have even less assets and order book.. so less appealing to another airline looking to acquire us as a whole naturally or in a bankruptcy. This isn’t a good position to be in asset wise.
Faulty Engines:
-2024 EOY, there will be 30-35 parked
-2025 High of 67, with an average of 50 parked
-2026 According to the town hall, an average of 50 parked through the end of 2026
Pilots:
End of 2024 we will have 215 A/C, 35 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2760.
2025/26 we will have 219 A/C, avg of 50 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2535.
With 3450 pilots on property today, we are clearly overstaffed. Attrition isn’t as high as planned with most airlines not hiring for the remainder of the year. I can’t help but think there will be further furloughs?
Debt:
In addition to Quarterly losses for the foreseeable future, we have ALOT of debt coming due. If it’s not refinanced, we’ll be on a path to bankruptcy to reorganize. If it is refinanced and pushed down the road, we are still on a path to bankruptcy with the current trend and forecast of losses.
I just don’t see how this can work. Am I missing something? Can someone make this work?
Product:
They say profits from new products can take upwards of a year to realize. I hope the new products do well, I’m not sure it is enough to be honest. It doesn’t quite seem as premium as they think it is, and our operational performance will shy away potential new customers.
If the brand wants to be looked at as more premium the customer service must follow. WIth contracted employees above and below the wing everywhere except FLL, this seems difficult to standardize. The employees don’t quite have as much skin in the game and don’t have as much of an incentive to create a nice experience.
Fleet:
Orders for 2025/26 are deferred until after 2030. This is probably needed while we get our financials in order, however, I think it could have helped with all the groundings next two years. Fly the new deliveries with the new product and make money, while Pratt pays a daily fee for the parked airplanes. Now we have to scale back the network and hope they do it right.
We’ve already performed sale lease backs on many planes. This does give additional liquidity now, and one could say this is just a financial transaction. However, if it were to come do bankruptcy we really don’t have many assets. Previously, If a bankruptcy acquisition occurred, we had a larger order book. Now, with the recent sale leaseback agreement of our 27/28 orders to AerCap we have even less assets and order book.. so less appealing to another airline looking to acquire us as a whole naturally or in a bankruptcy. This isn’t a good position to be in asset wise.
Faulty Engines:
-2024 EOY, there will be 30-35 parked
-2025 High of 67, with an average of 50 parked
-2026 According to the town hall, an average of 50 parked through the end of 2026
Pilots:
End of 2024 we will have 215 A/C, 35 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2760.
2025/26 we will have 219 A/C, avg of 50 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2535.
With 3450 pilots on property today, we are clearly overstaffed. Attrition isn’t as high as planned with most airlines not hiring for the remainder of the year. I can’t help but think there will be further furloughs?
Debt:
In addition to Quarterly losses for the foreseeable future, we have ALOT of debt coming due. If it’s not refinanced, we’ll be on a path to bankruptcy to reorganize. If it is refinanced and pushed down the road, we are still on a path to bankruptcy with the current trend and forecast of losses.
I just don’t see how this can work. Am I missing something? Can someone make this work?
08-03-2024, 08:16 PM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,480
With Q3 estimates so grim, somewhere in the ballpark of -300m, what’s next?
Product:
They say profits from new products can take upwards of a year to realize. I hope the new products do well, I’m not sure it is enough to be honest. It doesn’t quite seem as premium as they think it is, and our operational performance will shy away potential new customers.
If the brand wants to be looked at as more premium the customer service must follow. WIth contracted employees above and below the wing everywhere except FLL, this seems difficult to standardize. The employees don’t quite have as much skin in the game and don’t have as much of an incentive to create a nice experience.
Fleet:
Orders for 2025/26 are deferred until after 2030. This is probably needed while we get our financials in order, however, I think it could have helped with all the groundings next two years. Fly the new deliveries with the new product and make money, while Pratt pays a daily fee for the parked airplanes. Now we have to scale back the network and hope they do it right.
We’ve already performed sale lease backs on many planes. This does give additional liquidity now, and one could say this is just a financial transaction. However, if it were to come do bankruptcy we really don’t have many assets. Previously, If a bankruptcy acquisition occurred, we had a larger order book. Now, with the recent sale leaseback agreement of our 27/28 orders to AerCap we have even less assets and order book.. so less appealing to another airline looking to acquire us as a whole naturally or in a bankruptcy. This isn’t a good position to be in asset wise.
Faulty Engines:
-2024 EOY, there will be 30-35 parked
-2025 High of 67, with an average of 50 parked
-2026 According to the town hall, an average of 50 parked through the end of 2026
Pilots:
End of 2024 we will have 215 A/C, 35 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2760.
2025/26 we will have 219 A/C, avg of 50 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2535.
With 3450 pilots on property today, we are clearly overstaffed. Attrition isn’t as high as planned with most airlines not hiring for the remainder of the year. I can’t help but think there will be further furloughs?
Debt:
In addition to Quarterly losses for the foreseeable future, we have ALOT of debt coming due. If it’s not refinanced, we’ll be on a path to bankruptcy to reorganize. If it is refinanced and pushed down the road, we are still on a path to bankruptcy with the current trend and forecast of losses.
I just don’t see how this can work. Am I missing something? Can someone make this work?
Product:
They say profits from new products can take upwards of a year to realize. I hope the new products do well, I’m not sure it is enough to be honest. It doesn’t quite seem as premium as they think it is, and our operational performance will shy away potential new customers.
If the brand wants to be looked at as more premium the customer service must follow. WIth contracted employees above and below the wing everywhere except FLL, this seems difficult to standardize. The employees don’t quite have as much skin in the game and don’t have as much of an incentive to create a nice experience.
Fleet:
Orders for 2025/26 are deferred until after 2030. This is probably needed while we get our financials in order, however, I think it could have helped with all the groundings next two years. Fly the new deliveries with the new product and make money, while Pratt pays a daily fee for the parked airplanes. Now we have to scale back the network and hope they do it right.
We’ve already performed sale lease backs on many planes. This does give additional liquidity now, and one could say this is just a financial transaction. However, if it were to come do bankruptcy we really don’t have many assets. Previously, If a bankruptcy acquisition occurred, we had a larger order book. Now, with the recent sale leaseback agreement of our 27/28 orders to AerCap we have even less assets and order book.. so less appealing to another airline looking to acquire us as a whole naturally or in a bankruptcy. This isn’t a good position to be in asset wise.
Faulty Engines:
-2024 EOY, there will be 30-35 parked
-2025 High of 67, with an average of 50 parked
-2026 According to the town hall, an average of 50 parked through the end of 2026
Pilots:
End of 2024 we will have 215 A/C, 35 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2760.
2025/26 we will have 219 A/C, avg of 50 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2535.
With 3450 pilots on property today, we are clearly overstaffed. Attrition isn’t as high as planned with most airlines not hiring for the remainder of the year. I can’t help but think there will be further furloughs?
Debt:
In addition to Quarterly losses for the foreseeable future, we have ALOT of debt coming due. If it’s not refinanced, we’ll be on a path to bankruptcy to reorganize. If it is refinanced and pushed down the road, we are still on a path to bankruptcy with the current trend and forecast of losses.
I just don’t see how this can work. Am I missing something? Can someone make this work?
08-03-2024, 08:22 PM
#6
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Position: A320
Posts: 1,317
To get a judge to sign off on a ch11 plan, you have to have one, and if this transformation plan was it ha, judge would cank that in a sec. The plan is a joke, the fact that Ted still has a job ( failure to deliver to share holders/run a company) and why would lessors work to renegotiate when Boeing and Airbus have there own issues? Minus the merger/Pratt issues, when everyone was posting record post Covid travel profits, the numbers were still awful.
08-03-2024, 09:06 PM
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2022
Posts: 891
Not any justification for Ted. But NK didn’t have a normal post covid. Starting in early 22, when all other airlines were free to grow and do what it took to return to profitability, NK was stuck. Literally put on pause by the B6 acquisition. Only officially released from the grips of being in a pending agreement a few months ago, it’s too late to pick up the pieces. I hate to think it’s most likely go bust or…….go bust. Not sure there’s any other way out of this.
They haven’t made money since 2019 because they failed to adapt and took our customers for granted and watched their contractors and employees treat people like garbage with zero repercussions. It was incompetence not any kind of pause from a pending merger. Now we all suffer the consequences.
08-03-2024, 09:38 PM
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2016
Position: A320 CA
Posts: 723
Why we're not back with Frontier again, I don't know. But they completely checked out during the B6 merger and the damage was done.
08-04-2024, 05:44 AM
#9
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2023
Posts: 111
Because when they lost their sweetheart deal with Frontier, they cried like babies, said "I'm not playing anymore, poopyheads" and stopped caring at all. Those of us that were here saw the results of that. And still are.
Why we're not back with Frontier again, I don't know. But they completely checked out during the B6 merger and the damage was done.
Why we're not back with Frontier again, I don't know. But they completely checked out during the B6 merger and the damage was done.
08-04-2024, 03:16 PM
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2020
Posts: 1,913
To get a judge to sign off on a ch11 plan, you have to have one, and if this transformation plan was it ha, judge would cank that in a sec. The plan is a joke, the fact that Ted still has a job ( failure to deliver to share holders/run a company) and why would lessors work to renegotiate when Boeing and Airbus have there own issues? Minus the merger/Pratt issues, when everyone was posting record post Covid travel profits, the numbers were still awful.
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