Large Q3 Loss in forcast, what’s next.
08-22-2024, 11:08 AM
#43
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Position: NK CA
Posts: 851
They aren't getting love from them because our junior FO's jumping ship arent even remotley qualfied. Straight from CFI to a couple hundred hours of 121 isn't going to get you very far.
08-22-2024, 07:08 PM
#44
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2022
Posts: 894
Time to go CFI again. There weren’t just no jobs in aviation in 2008, there were no jobs at all.
08-22-2024, 07:32 PM
#45
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2022
Posts: 1,211
them: “Have you done this before?”
me: “Well I’ve done similar things and held jobs with responsibility including piloting and even teaching people to fly.”
them: “you are both over qualified AND unqualified.”
??!?!?!??
08-22-2024, 08:24 PM
#46
At your mom's house
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: cpt 737
Posts: 2,829
Yes. I dreamed of stocking shelves at Walgreens. First question in the interview:
them: “Have you done this before?”
me: “Well I’ve done similar things and held jobs with responsibility including piloting and even teaching people to fly.”
them: “you are both over qualified AND unqualified.”
??!?!?!??
them: “Have you done this before?”
me: “Well I’ve done similar things and held jobs with responsibility including piloting and even teaching people to fly.”
them: “you are both over qualified AND unqualified.”
??!?!?!??
You sure you dont want a management job?
you have any management jobs?
no
My name is Manuel labor
08-22-2024, 10:19 PM
#47
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2022
Posts: 1,211
Yep! Plenty of “dirty jobs” with no benefits and near minimum wage. At least let me be a host at red lobster for min pay. Where my back isn’t breaking. Temp jobs galore.
08-26-2024, 08:13 AM
#48
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Position: 320 Left soon middle
Posts: 488
I have no idea what will happen. But been here a long while. 7% seniority. Just some thoughts:
I doubt this "new spirit" or plan B is anything more than smokes and mirror. It is a half ass attempt at best. Teddyboy testified in court that the airline has been for sale since 2016. So in other wordds, in 2016 the board decided that the best path ahead (for stock value) is a sale. Back in 2016 we have made money still. Clearly that path has not changed because things only got worse since then. So the only reason to adjust from ULCC to ULC is to position us better for approval. It is sell it or go bust.
So who will buy us? AA, DAL, UAL SW... OMG seriously? While not impossible I highly doubt any of those players would touch us. What are they actually buying? Downed airplanes? Routes? What routes? Everywhere I fly, except maybe Latrobe, I see thos liveries. All of them. You can buy an airline for a few different reasons:
1. Get the planes and the pilots and the future orders.
2. Aquire market share.
3. Aquire economies of scale.
4. Because it is dirt cheap.
So one by one:
AA. That one will never be approved. That is a given and they are slowing down and not exactly doing great.
DAL. I doubt they would want to take the hit on their image by aquiring the most hated airline in the USA. Thanks to Teddy. Because under Bob we were killing it. It only took Ted what? 2-3 years to drive us into the ground. Lovely. What a talent!
UAL. I doubt it. They have plenty of planes on order, yes they could use the market share in SE florida. But is that worth going through the whole process and taking the debt on? I am not hopeful.
SW. They have a nice balance sheet. But they already have FLL as is. So why? To get busses? Especially not these busses with this engine. They are actually smart over there.
B6. Looks like they will be pulling through but who will finance the transaction at the moment? They have a ton of debt as is. But another attempt at a merger at a very low price, though unlikely, it is a possibility. Assuming the big ones will not lobby another lawsuit against it or if we get Trump in.
Alaska. They just bought Hawaiian. They do still want and need more economies of scale. They also have no real presence in SE FL. But they have no real good middle, connecting airport. They are also loaded with debt as well. I don't think so.
F9. That is the only reasonable one. They would gain both, economies of scale, and market share. But they have their own problems at the moment. Looks like they are tweakoing the ULCC model toward ULC also and we are mirroring that. If they do put in another offer, it will be last minute. They need to get the best price they can because they will take on a lot of risk if they aquire NK. If this happens, I am 100% sure the new F9+NK will be sold one day as well.
As far as the future. If we do not get to restructure the debt the credit card company will say bye bye to us in December this year. In which case this place shuts down and the holder of the debt will not get the money. I believe they are secured against out CC program. Which is I am sure worth a lot of nothing. Especially after we shut down. So what? Will they push us into Ch11? They will lose there too. I think a restructuring of the debt is likely. Their best bet is to keep Spirit going and hopefuly a merger comes. But I could be wrong. I am just another idiot flying airplanes.
Ch11. For that to happen, as others have pointed out, we will need a path to profitability. With this cancer we got from Pratt that is not happening until after 2026 the earliest. We will not last that long. We can start selling planes, the ones we own. Not sure how much eqity that really is though. But I am sure there is a plan toward evaporation. If we do no see an offer within the next 3-6 months, they will start selling frames and the furloug will go down way deeper than the speculated 2500.
So again, I have no idea what will happen. But this looks bad and it looks like bad times are coming for the industry. There is a reason why some have stopped hiring already. Clearly a slow down is happening. If and when it does, the smart thing to do is to hunker down. Retire old planes. Stop growth. Save cash. Not to buy X billion dollars of debt and more planes.
Sucks for us.
I doubt this "new spirit" or plan B is anything more than smokes and mirror. It is a half ass attempt at best. Teddyboy testified in court that the airline has been for sale since 2016. So in other wordds, in 2016 the board decided that the best path ahead (for stock value) is a sale. Back in 2016 we have made money still. Clearly that path has not changed because things only got worse since then. So the only reason to adjust from ULCC to ULC is to position us better for approval. It is sell it or go bust.
So who will buy us? AA, DAL, UAL SW... OMG seriously? While not impossible I highly doubt any of those players would touch us. What are they actually buying? Downed airplanes? Routes? What routes? Everywhere I fly, except maybe Latrobe, I see thos liveries. All of them. You can buy an airline for a few different reasons:
1. Get the planes and the pilots and the future orders.
2. Aquire market share.
3. Aquire economies of scale.
4. Because it is dirt cheap.
So one by one:
AA. That one will never be approved. That is a given and they are slowing down and not exactly doing great.
DAL. I doubt they would want to take the hit on their image by aquiring the most hated airline in the USA. Thanks to Teddy. Because under Bob we were killing it. It only took Ted what? 2-3 years to drive us into the ground. Lovely. What a talent!
UAL. I doubt it. They have plenty of planes on order, yes they could use the market share in SE florida. But is that worth going through the whole process and taking the debt on? I am not hopeful.
SW. They have a nice balance sheet. But they already have FLL as is. So why? To get busses? Especially not these busses with this engine. They are actually smart over there.
B6. Looks like they will be pulling through but who will finance the transaction at the moment? They have a ton of debt as is. But another attempt at a merger at a very low price, though unlikely, it is a possibility. Assuming the big ones will not lobby another lawsuit against it or if we get Trump in.
Alaska. They just bought Hawaiian. They do still want and need more economies of scale. They also have no real presence in SE FL. But they have no real good middle, connecting airport. They are also loaded with debt as well. I don't think so.
F9. That is the only reasonable one. They would gain both, economies of scale, and market share. But they have their own problems at the moment. Looks like they are tweakoing the ULCC model toward ULC also and we are mirroring that. If they do put in another offer, it will be last minute. They need to get the best price they can because they will take on a lot of risk if they aquire NK. If this happens, I am 100% sure the new F9+NK will be sold one day as well.
As far as the future. If we do not get to restructure the debt the credit card company will say bye bye to us in December this year. In which case this place shuts down and the holder of the debt will not get the money. I believe they are secured against out CC program. Which is I am sure worth a lot of nothing. Especially after we shut down. So what? Will they push us into Ch11? They will lose there too. I think a restructuring of the debt is likely. Their best bet is to keep Spirit going and hopefuly a merger comes. But I could be wrong. I am just another idiot flying airplanes.
Ch11. For that to happen, as others have pointed out, we will need a path to profitability. With this cancer we got from Pratt that is not happening until after 2026 the earliest. We will not last that long. We can start selling planes, the ones we own. Not sure how much eqity that really is though. But I am sure there is a plan toward evaporation. If we do no see an offer within the next 3-6 months, they will start selling frames and the furloug will go down way deeper than the speculated 2500.
So again, I have no idea what will happen. But this looks bad and it looks like bad times are coming for the industry. There is a reason why some have stopped hiring already. Clearly a slow down is happening. If and when it does, the smart thing to do is to hunker down. Retire old planes. Stop growth. Save cash. Not to buy X billion dollars of debt and more planes.
Sucks for us.
08-30-2024, 02:05 PM
#49
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Position: A320
Posts: 734
I have no idea what will happen. But been here a long while. 7% seniority. Just some thoughts:
I doubt this "new spirit" or plan B is anything more than smokes and mirror. It is a half ass attempt at best. Teddyboy testified in court that the airline has been for sale since 2016. So in other wordds, in 2016 the board decided that the best path ahead (for stock value) is a sale. Back in 2016 we have made money still. Clearly that path has not changed because things only got worse since then. So the only reason to adjust from ULCC to ULC is to position us better for approval. It is sell it or go bust.
So who will buy us? AA, DAL, UAL SW... OMG seriously? While not impossible I highly doubt any of those players would touch us. What are they actually buying? Downed airplanes? Routes? What routes? Everywhere I fly, except maybe Latrobe, I see thos liveries. All of them. You can buy an airline for a few different reasons:
1. Get the planes and the pilots and the future orders.
2. Aquire market share.
3. Aquire economies of scale.
4. Because it is dirt cheap.
So one by one:
AA. That one will never be approved. That is a given and they are slowing down and not exactly doing great.
DAL. I doubt they would want to take the hit on their image by aquiring the most hated airline in the USA. Thanks to Teddy. Because under Bob we were killing it. It only took Ted what? 2-3 years to drive us into the ground. Lovely. What a talent!
UAL. I doubt it. They have plenty of planes on order, yes they could use the market share in SE florida. But is that worth going through the whole process and taking the debt on? I am not hopeful.
SW. They have a nice balance sheet. But they already have FLL as is. So why? To get busses? Especially not these busses with this engine. They are actually smart over there.
B6. Looks like they will be pulling through but who will finance the transaction at the moment? They have a ton of debt as is. But another attempt at a merger at a very low price, though unlikely, it is a possibility. Assuming the big ones will not lobby another lawsuit against it or if we get Trump in.
Alaska. They just bought Hawaiian. They do still want and need more economies of scale. They also have no real presence in SE FL. But they have no real good middle, connecting airport. They are also loaded with debt as well. I don't think so.
F9. That is the only reasonable one. They would gain both, economies of scale, and market share. But they have their own problems at the moment. Looks like they are tweakoing the ULCC model toward ULC also and we are mirroring that. If they do put in another offer, it will be last minute. They need to get the best price they can because they will take on a lot of risk if they aquire NK. If this happens, I am 100% sure the new F9+NK will be sold one day as well.
As far as the future. If we do not get to restructure the debt the credit card company will say bye bye to us in December this year. In which case this place shuts down and the holder of the debt will not get the money. I believe they are secured against out CC program. Which is I am sure worth a lot of nothing. Especially after we shut down. So what? Will they push us into Ch11? They will lose there too. I think a restructuring of the debt is likely. Their best bet is to keep Spirit going and hopefuly a merger comes. But I could be wrong. I am just another idiot flying airplanes.
Ch11. For that to happen, as others have pointed out, we will need a path to profitability. With this cancer we got from Pratt that is not happening until after 2026 the earliest. We will not last that long. We can start selling planes, the ones we own. Not sure how much eqity that really is though. But I am sure there is a plan toward evaporation. If we do no see an offer within the next 3-6 months, they will start selling frames and the furloug will go down way deeper than the speculated 2500.
So again, I have no idea what will happen. But this looks bad and it looks like bad times are coming for the industry. There is a reason why some have stopped hiring already. Clearly a slow down is happening. If and when it does, the smart thing to do is to hunker down. Retire old planes. Stop growth. Save cash. Not to buy X billion dollars of debt and more planes.
Sucks for us.
I doubt this "new spirit" or plan B is anything more than smokes and mirror. It is a half ass attempt at best. Teddyboy testified in court that the airline has been for sale since 2016. So in other wordds, in 2016 the board decided that the best path ahead (for stock value) is a sale. Back in 2016 we have made money still. Clearly that path has not changed because things only got worse since then. So the only reason to adjust from ULCC to ULC is to position us better for approval. It is sell it or go bust.
So who will buy us? AA, DAL, UAL SW... OMG seriously? While not impossible I highly doubt any of those players would touch us. What are they actually buying? Downed airplanes? Routes? What routes? Everywhere I fly, except maybe Latrobe, I see thos liveries. All of them. You can buy an airline for a few different reasons:
1. Get the planes and the pilots and the future orders.
2. Aquire market share.
3. Aquire economies of scale.
4. Because it is dirt cheap.
So one by one:
AA. That one will never be approved. That is a given and they are slowing down and not exactly doing great.
DAL. I doubt they would want to take the hit on their image by aquiring the most hated airline in the USA. Thanks to Teddy. Because under Bob we were killing it. It only took Ted what? 2-3 years to drive us into the ground. Lovely. What a talent!
UAL. I doubt it. They have plenty of planes on order, yes they could use the market share in SE florida. But is that worth going through the whole process and taking the debt on? I am not hopeful.
SW. They have a nice balance sheet. But they already have FLL as is. So why? To get busses? Especially not these busses with this engine. They are actually smart over there.
B6. Looks like they will be pulling through but who will finance the transaction at the moment? They have a ton of debt as is. But another attempt at a merger at a very low price, though unlikely, it is a possibility. Assuming the big ones will not lobby another lawsuit against it or if we get Trump in.
Alaska. They just bought Hawaiian. They do still want and need more economies of scale. They also have no real presence in SE FL. But they have no real good middle, connecting airport. They are also loaded with debt as well. I don't think so.
F9. That is the only reasonable one. They would gain both, economies of scale, and market share. But they have their own problems at the moment. Looks like they are tweakoing the ULCC model toward ULC also and we are mirroring that. If they do put in another offer, it will be last minute. They need to get the best price they can because they will take on a lot of risk if they aquire NK. If this happens, I am 100% sure the new F9+NK will be sold one day as well.
As far as the future. If we do not get to restructure the debt the credit card company will say bye bye to us in December this year. In which case this place shuts down and the holder of the debt will not get the money. I believe they are secured against out CC program. Which is I am sure worth a lot of nothing. Especially after we shut down. So what? Will they push us into Ch11? They will lose there too. I think a restructuring of the debt is likely. Their best bet is to keep Spirit going and hopefuly a merger comes. But I could be wrong. I am just another idiot flying airplanes.
Ch11. For that to happen, as others have pointed out, we will need a path to profitability. With this cancer we got from Pratt that is not happening until after 2026 the earliest. We will not last that long. We can start selling planes, the ones we own. Not sure how much eqity that really is though. But I am sure there is a plan toward evaporation. If we do no see an offer within the next 3-6 months, they will start selling frames and the furloug will go down way deeper than the speculated 2500.
So again, I have no idea what will happen. But this looks bad and it looks like bad times are coming for the industry. There is a reason why some have stopped hiring already. Clearly a slow down is happening. If and when it does, the smart thing to do is to hunker down. Retire old planes. Stop growth. Save cash. Not to buy X billion dollars of debt and more planes.
Sucks for us.
The hiring hasn't stopped. DAL still has classes planned, UAL is accelerating theirs, and AAL still plans on ~2000 new hires next year. Anyone on the fence should get their house in order, like now. It's gonna get a lot worse here before it gets (or IF it gets) better. Hunkering down here is a very high risk solution.
Last edited by Judge Smails; 08-30-2024 at 02:27 PM.
08-30-2024, 02:10 PM
#50
That/It/Thang
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,952
But hey, we have pop chips for the Go Big seats, so profitabity is around the corner. POP CHIPS!
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