The plan going forward
06-04-2024, 06:01 AM
#72
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2018
Position: 757 CA
Posts: 613
Looks like the plan going forward involves senior management running for new employers.
CFO leaving in the middle of a financial crisis. The question remains...was he kindly asked to find a new employer, or does he realize how badly he helped screw this company over and is running for the hills?
Good luck, Hertz employees.
CFO leaving in the middle of a financial crisis. The question remains...was he kindly asked to find a new employer, or does he realize how badly he helped screw this company over and is running for the hills?
Good luck, Hertz employees.
06-04-2024, 07:12 AM
#73
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,336
70 airplanes being out of service. We all know how this plays out. One Friday morning we wake up to Chapter 11 press release.
I’m sure you have seen the excel snapshot detailing the new fare structure. I can’t wait to see the bungled implementation of this plan to become an LCC airline. I don’t think they can command the price needed to offset the expected loss of ancillary revenue. Our ticket prices are going to need to increase tremendously.
ALPA saw some of the financial data recently and concluded the outlook is grim. I doubt they manage any positive cash flow this year.
I’m sure you have seen the excel snapshot detailing the new fare structure. I can’t wait to see the bungled implementation of this plan to become an LCC airline. I don’t think they can command the price needed to offset the expected loss of ancillary revenue. Our ticket prices are going to need to increase tremendously.
ALPA saw some of the financial data recently and concluded the outlook is grim. I doubt they manage any positive cash flow this year.
It gets grim in fall of 2025 when the huge debt payment is due. They have plenty of liquidity until that point. Unfortunately, this management team doesn’t have the chops to turn it around, imo. They need to get breakeven and try to refinance the debt.
06-04-2024, 07:35 AM
#74
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Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: Airplanes
Posts: 1,395
How do you figure? $1.2B in liquidity but $600M is reserved for credit card holdback (union's best estimate) so that's only $600M in actual liquidity. With a burn rate of $150M/quarter that puts the music stopping at 1 year from now. I don't see any what that we can make it to fall 2025 without a significant change.
06-04-2024, 09:58 AM
#75
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,336
How do you figure? $1.2B in liquidity but $600M is reserved for credit card holdback (union's best estimate) so that's only $600M in actual liquidity. With a burn rate of $150M/quarter that puts the music stopping at 1 year from now. I don't see any what that we can make it to fall 2025 without a significant change.
06-04-2024, 10:10 AM
#76
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: Airplanes
Posts: 1,395
First Quarter 2024 Liquidity and Capital Deployment • Ended the quarter with unrestricted cash and cash equivalents, short-term investment securities and liquidity available under the Company's revolving credit facility of $1.2 billion
Adj. Operating income (loss), for AOG credits — $(146.6) million
Above from https://s24.q4cdn.com/507316502/file...lease-1Q24.pdf
Adj. Operating income (loss) adj. for AOG credits, non-GAAP ($millions)(2) $(110) to $(86)
Above from https://s24.q4cdn.com/507316502/file...May-6-2024.pdf
So, your fall 2025 could be accurate if we burn through the remaining cash ($600M) at a lower rate of $100M (randomly picked between the 86-110E). That would give SAVE 6 more quarters to turn the ship around. So, worst case scenairo is 4 quarters and best case is 6? That schedules judgement day anywhere from 2Q25 to 4Q25. Of course if the Organge man is elected then who knows what will happen. He'd probably allow Aeroloft to buy us.
06-04-2024, 10:15 AM
#77
Almost there
Joined APC: Apr 2021
Posts: 1,286
You would presume the summer months would help with the burn rate. Hopefully also new mitigation tactics to return to profit that have been implemented thus far. I can’t recall if Q1 had any payment from Pratts included? I see answered above before I could post.
06-04-2024, 11:16 AM
#78
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Joined APC: Nov 2012
Position: A330 FO
Posts: 275
06-04-2024, 12:11 PM
#80
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Thread Starter
Joined APC: Oct 2017
Posts: 3,233
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