Search

Notices

The plan going forward

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 10-08-2024, 04:37 AM
  #581  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,339
Default

Originally Posted by WHACKMASTER
Now we see the violence inherent in the system!

Listen. Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.

You can't expect to wield supreme power just 'cause some watery tart threw a sword at you!

Hedley is offline  
Old 10-08-2024, 06:47 AM
  #582  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 948
Default

Originally Posted by WHACKMASTER
Now we see the violence inherent in the system!
Help! Help! I'm being repressed
GoCats67 is offline  
Old 10-08-2024, 06:50 AM
  #583  
Prime Minister/Moderator
 
rickair7777's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,269
Default

Originally Posted by PineappleXpres
What about all the retirees pulling out their 401k at the same time? The next gen doesn’t have much invested. Will the s and p invert as well?
Yes, that's entirely possible. P/E's have been trending higher, and some of that is likely due to all of these people being told to invest their money in equity markets vice having a DB pension... that's likely driving high P/E's.

401k's are relatively new, basically the boomers will be the first generation to really put it to the test, end to end.

I saw that coming a long time ago. For that reason I diversified a bit. Not crypto or wingnut scammy stuff, but I'm not as heavy in traditional equities as I could be.

Originally Posted by PineappleXpres
I think inflation and affordability could cause revolution if it not for a cultural shift in the young, resigning to never owning a home and spending their income on latte and door dash to float the economy.
I don't think so. There are a lot of boomers, and not as many Gen Y/Z.

While retirees are tending to keep their big houses for now (more so than in the past) that won't last forever as they become infirm and die. The younger generations should have a lot of housing opportunity as they get older (assuming immigration is reasonably constrained).

Same goes for employment opportunity... all those retirees will need goods and services, and there will be opportunity galore for those willing to provide it. I'd guess savings/investsments will devalue and inflation will reward those who are currently in the workforce and can compete for raises.

Kind of like post-covid... big inflation due to a lot of people being given (printed) money that wasn't associated with productive output. The correction for that was competition for workers and big raises for those able and willing to be productive. For example our timing was good with contract cycles, we got more or less made whole post-covid.

I don't feel bad. I lived in my buddy's unfinished spare bedroom to save money after I got out of the Navy. I had a good job, but wasn't sure what career path I was going down at that point. Lot of fun people around that house though. Bought a small condo at age 40, forever home at age 50.

Philsophically, when you're young all you really need is beer and ass, enjoy youth while you can. I'm glad I did. You do want to set yourself up to be comfortable down the road, by age 50 or so.
rickair7777 is offline  
Old 10-08-2024, 11:20 AM
  #584  
Gets Weekends Off
 
PineappleXpres's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Apr 2022
Posts: 1,211
Default

Originally Posted by rickair7777
Yes, that's entirely possible. P/E's have been trending higher, and some of that is likely due to all of these people being told to invest their money in equity markets vice having a DB pension... that's likely driving high P/E's.

401k's are relatively new, basically the boomers will be the first generation to really put it to the test, end to end.

I saw that coming a long time ago. For that reason I diversified a bit. Not crypto or wingnut scammy stuff, but I'm not as heavy in traditional equities as I could be.



I don't think so. There are a lot of boomers, and not as many Gen Y/Z.

While retirees are tending to keep their big houses for now (more so than in the past) that won't last forever as they become infirm and die. The younger generations should have a lot of housing opportunity as they get older (assuming immigration is reasonably constrained).

Same goes for employment opportunity... all those retirees will need goods and services, and there will be opportunity galore for those willing to provide it. I'd guess savings/investsments will devalue and inflation will reward those who are currently in the workforce and can compete for raises.

Kind of like post-covid... big inflation due to a lot of people being given (printed) money that wasn't associated with productive output. The correction for that was competition for workers and big raises for those able and willing to be productive. For example our timing was good with contract cycles, we got more or less made whole post-covid.

I don't feel bad. I lived in my buddy's unfinished spare bedroom to save money after I got out of the Navy. I had a good job, but wasn't sure what career path I was going down at that point. Lot of fun people around that house though. Bought a small condo at age 40, forever home at age 50.

Philsophically, when you're young all you really need is beer and ass, enjoy youth while you can. I'm glad I did. You do want to set yourself up to be comfortable down the road, by age 50 or so.
Check your COLA to Income ratio trajectory. There are opportunities but not in populous areas. Multigenerational living is the future and generational wealth transfer is getting split multiple ways could offer down payments but they will probably be for Condos.
PineappleXpres is offline  
Old 10-08-2024, 11:53 AM
  #585  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Sep 2020
Posts: 356
Default

Originally Posted by rickair7777
I don't think so. There are a lot of boomers, and not as many Gen Y/Z.

While retirees are tending to keep their big houses for now (more so than in the past) that won't last forever as they become infirm and die. The younger generations should have a lot of housing opportunity as they get older (assuming immigration is reasonably constrained).
Nope none of this is true.

According to the US Census Bureau Baby Boomers are the 3rd largest demographic behind Millennials and GexZ. GenX is close behind.

Census Bureau Data 2023:

72M Millennials
69M GenZ
68M Boomers
65M GenX

The 68M boomers won't all be gone for 40 years, and its 19 years before half of them are gone. This doesn't include Boomers married to younger spouses that will live in their homes even longer. Those 3 generations behind them represent 200M people trying to get their houses. Most of which will just be inherited by their Millennial, GenZ and GenX heirs. There aren't going to be a flood of homes that hit the market anytime soon. Its all just made up. There is no "silver tsumani" of home sales. That's just housing crash bro propaganda.

The competition for housing is only going to be more fierce over then next decade as the younger generations compete for a lack of homes and new home builders can't build them fast enough because they lack sufficient labor and resources to do so. Real estate is only going up. Just like most assets have and will keep doing.

Also GenZ are the highest earning generation ever. Closesly followed by Millennials and then GenX. Those 3 generations are far ahead of the boomers that preceeded them. The only reason boomers have so much wealth is they have been alove longer to accumulate it.
FriendlyPilot is offline  
Old 10-08-2024, 03:56 PM
  #586  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 527
Default

Population growth isn’t necessary in just one economic model, it’s a requirement in any retirement scheme or program public or private. Until or unless robots do everything, or the majority of things, in order for some people to be retired or not working more have to be working. Period
Jdub2 is online now  
Old 10-08-2024, 04:37 PM
  #587  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,556
Default

As a 40 something airline pilot, I'm operating under the assumption that I won't see a dime from Social Security when it comes time for me to 'retire.' I think anyone in our tax bracket should have the same mentality. It'll get ugly if the powers that be start to eye retirement accounts as funding sources at some point, as I believe they will.
TallFlyer is offline  
Old 10-08-2024, 06:57 PM
  #588  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Jul 2023
Posts: 361
Default

Originally Posted by TallFlyer
As a 40 something airline pilot, I'm operating under the assumption that I won't see a dime from Social Security when it comes time for me to 'retire.' I think anyone in our tax bracket should have the same mentality. It'll get ugly if the powers that be start to eye retirement accounts as funding sources at some point, as I believe they will.
Ive been saying this for years. Plenty of lawmakers want to confiscate inheritance all together too.
CatPilot1 is online now  
Old 10-08-2024, 08:59 PM
  #589  
Prime Minister/Moderator
 
rickair7777's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,269
Default

Originally Posted by FriendlyPilot
Nope none of this is true.

According to the US Census Bureau Baby Boomers are the 3rd largest demographic behind Millennials and GexZ. GenX is close behind.

Census Bureau Data 2023:

72M Millennials
69M GenZ
68M Boomers
65M GenX

The 68M boomers won't all be gone for 40 years, and its 19 years before half of them are gone. This doesn't include Boomers married to younger spouses that will live in their homes even longer. Those 3 generations behind them represent 200M people trying to get their houses. Most of which will just be inherited by their Millennial, GenZ and GenX heirs. There aren't going to be a flood of homes that hit the market anytime soon. Its all just made up. There is no "silver tsumani" of home sales. That's just housing crash bro propaganda.

The competition for housing is only going to be more fierce over then next decade as the younger generations compete for a lack of homes and new home builders can't build them fast enough because they lack sufficient labor and resources to do so. Real estate is only going up. Just like most assets have and will keep doing.

Also GenZ are the highest earning generation ever. Closesly followed by Millennials and then GenX. Those 3 generations are far ahead of the boomers that preceeded them. The only reason boomers have so much wealth is they have been alove longer to accumulate it.
I believe they were the largest generation before they started dying off. Also I'm talking about USofA, global numbers off google might be different.

Nobody is denying that the boomers benefitted from good timing.

But not sure how you came up with highest earning generations, maybe by not adjusting for inflation?

In actual today dollars, generational current income is as follows: X, Y, B, Z, S. That tracks based on where everyone is in their career/life progression. Mid/late career make more, retirees and kids make less. My Gen Z daughter's income is only a few grand but she's still in school
rickair7777 is offline  
Old 10-08-2024, 09:00 PM
  #590  
Prime Minister/Moderator
 
rickair7777's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,269
Default

Originally Posted by TallFlyer
It'll get ugly if the powers that be start to eye retirement accounts as funding sources at some point, as I believe they will.
They already are... they will follow the money.
rickair7777 is offline  
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
Nightflyer
FedEx
15
07-04-2023 02:58 AM
TonyC
FedEx
243
06-13-2022 11:27 AM
iaflyer
Delta
254
05-22-2019 08:22 AM
EWRflyr
United
1
01-07-2012 09:57 AM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



Your Privacy Choices