CincoDeMayo

Why do people think this isn’t info already released in stock filings? You think the company called in the MEC in and said “hey, we like you, let us give you the inside scoop and make sure you don’t immediately send out an email about it to the pilots (wink wink)”. Maybe some don’t pay attention until it’s literally sent in an email with all the scary undertones.

This info has been available for a while now, filed with the SEC, revised guidance for everyone to feast on

PossibleDeviation

I don’t think we see voluntary leaves offered at this point. What incentive does Ted and Co have to do so? Engine issues are to last through 2025 at the earliest so the costs of having to spool up training for recalled furloughs won’t be his problem to deal with. In this case it’s cheaper to furlough. Floodgates about to open.

CincoDeMayo

I suppose it comes down to how much say Robin has in the operations at NK. Will Robin not mind if Ted lays off his soon to be workforce? I guess that depends on Robin’s control as the “silent hand” over Ted

I do know we saw this before in 2020. WARN letters were ready to go out, MEC made a deal to keep majority of pilots via leaves, they went back to the table to “save” the rest of the pilots from WARN letters, and many of us enjoyed nice paid time off.

Now that was an airborne virus that crippled the airline industry, this is the grounding of our NEO planes. I could argue one is neither worse or more worse than the other, but I’ve seen this before. Once WARN letters hit mailboxes, we can discuss the possible furloughs, until then, we shall see.

This is a nice eye opener for those new to the industry. The airline industry will kick you in the nuts when you’re not expecting it. It isn’t all sunshine and new contracts. Learn to deal with it and worry about it when it actually becomes something to worry about.

PossibleDeviation

Sure but this is different. This issue has an end date; Covid did not.

JB is going to retire the 190s and has to deal with the engine issue in their planes as well as ours. Don’t think a lack of pilots is a concern of RHs right now.

RemoveB4flght

Ted and Co don’t have a crystal ball.

What wakes them up in a cold sweat at night is the thought that this merger doesn’t go through and they have to roll up their sleeves and sort this mess out alone instead of running off with millions. Some here would have you think a failed B6 merger would mean we jump right back into an F9 deal, as if the DOJ’s anti-merger crusade will suddenly disappear as long as it’s two ULCCs combining. That’s not going to be a very well capitalized adventure with both companies having the same issues currently.

Even if the court decision doesn’t go our way in the next few weeks, B6 has sunk too much money into the deal to not appeal it, which takes time. In the interim, the gang down in Miramar have to keep the operation afloat. Who knows what kind of supply chain issues Pratt&Whit may have, what domestic demand will do in 2024, what new conflicts in the Middle East could do to oil prices. At some point down the road, offering VIL’s can buy time and free up some cash.

How even more convenient if that coincides with us opening up section 6 and getting spooked into a concessionary contract. Bah… we’ll get ‘em next time

8JRMfortheyear

Who can help me send a note to Robin? I want to send him a “Don’t give up the fight” message!

JulesWinfield

It's kind of too late for that. They have failed to properly manage the operation since the return from Covid. If the deal doesn't go through, I suspect a lot of management gets pushed out.

Bgood

Exactly what I was going to say. Robin needs the all of NKs people and infrastructure to make this merger successful. I personally would be shocked if any WARN letter is sent out. It makes as much sense to send out WARN letters as is the DOJ argument against the merger, which is not much.

Look at that dumb statement from the DOJ about the deal with Allegiant and Frontier not being finalized and that should answer the question of if they even have a strong case. If that's part of the issue then how about they approve the merger on the condition that those deals are finalized? They sound like they're trying to see what sticks to the wall.

Excargodog

The seniority system makes short term furloughing disastrously non cost effective - particularly at a major. That’s why some of the majors incentivized early retirement. How much do you really save with a furlough? You are letting go your cheapest people - junior FOs on reserve that maybe cost you less than $100k a year. Who are you keeping? Senior CAs who are costing you $300k plus a year. By the time you consider the training costs and everything, it’s just cheaper to keep everyone and give the surplus senior guys two-thirds pay to do nothing on any furlough situation shorter than two years. And if Pratt & Whitney are going to have to piney up for reimbursement because of their screwups it just makes better sense to do VILs.

Tranquility

You’re conflating costs. AA was allowed the privilege to retire early thousands of pilots because of government money rolling in. Had that cheddar not been there, don’t think for one second they wouldn’t have furloughed thousands, and their current cost structure (minus lots of senior widebody Captains), would be different…