JimmyDean

that is a pretty ugly estimate for the 3rd Qtr. from an outsider looking in, what is going on? Nobody else, save for maybe Breeze has estimated anything close to that

Directautogroup

The reasons are many. Maybe Frontier can buy us for $5 a share in the near future. I think the merger is the only thing propping up the stock price to its current value.

Wait until they announce they have to park 20 more neos or buy more imported wood for Ted’s new office in Dania.

RemoveB4flght

Its a smart PR campaign, if the B6 deal goes south and we launch right back into contract negotiations then management gets to cry poor mouth.

Then they drag things out while our tepid NC goes about convincing 69% of the pilot group that another substandard contract is the best we can do, but don’t worry, we’ll get another bite of the apple in five years….

Directautogroup

Yeah with Stuart and the gang we get something passing with 60% at this rate and they can call it a win. Be sure to brag to your Delta friends about how valuable this contract is as a percentage of revenue.

Excargodog

I think either this merger goes through or there will be such high attrition that bankruptcy will occur - which will drive attrition even higher since no one wants to work under a bankruptcy beat down contract when the legacies and SWA are struggling to fill cockpits. Heck, even the threat of that will shut down new hiring. Who wants to be furlough bait?

Lakeaffect

https://skift.com/blog/jetblue-pilot...rlines-merger/

JetBlue pilots are supporting the merger. I don’t see why we wouldn’t as well. Part of the DOJ’s claim was that it would be bad for employees.

YellowBus

Read your MEC hotline, it explains why the MEC is not outright supporting it.

Bluedriver

What's the short version?

Directautogroup

The Spirit MEC is playing quid pro quo instead of negotiating a decent contract last year. We will support the merger if you snap us to JetBlue pay rates.

If this is their second bite of apple strategy…

RemoveB4flght

Most likely the first step would be regime change as the board and institutional majority shareholders look for head to roll as to why post Covid recovery has been so lackluster. Another factor is if the current administration is able to enact legislation on junk fees, which on its face seems pro consumer and capable of bipartisan support, unless a split house doesn’t want any runs on the board in an election year. This itself isn’t a death blow to the business model, but depending on the specific wording could hamstring the market segment trying to compete on certain legacy routes. Looming recession woes would usually put a ULCC in a stronger position with a leaner business model, but lagging IT, neo issues, staffing, and other unaddressed operational issues that have curtailed recovery make it difficult to capitalize on that opportunity. Add to that the cloud of contentious pilot negotiations and the point is its death by a thousand cuts, not panic from a singular event.

I’m not sure that a failed B6 merger would be the apocalyptic catalyst that sends everything into hyperdrive. Dim near term financials are a long step from bankruptcy, which itself is a long process which doesn’t specifically end in the shuttering of doors. The top 25% of the seniority list still rides out the storm as line holding captains, who even at sub industry standard pay are still doing alright. The bottom 25% churning isn’t the K.O. punch as there are always pilots looking to beef their resume with narrow body type and time. It’s that middle 50% coming to a simultaneous conclusion that the writing on the wall is as obvious as a Times Square neon lit sign. The reality is very few times is that the case. Sure people will talk doom and gloom on the line and anonymous posters flame the message boards with falling sky predictions, but the human nature tends towards the wait and see what everyone else does approach. Yellow planes continue to fly.