Originally Posted by Justabusdriver1

By utilization I mean pilot utilization. More efficient use of the larger group reducing the need for extra redundancy. I understand more planes means more CA. But I see the 19s going away and jb is getting rid of all their 190s all those pilots will either have to move to the 220 or the 320. If the growth of the combined airline remains about the same the pool of FOs doubles while the number of upgrades needed per month remains about the same it’s going to take longer for a new hire FO to climb the ladder to get their name called. The pilot group is set to almost double. I know jb has a larger pilot group than spirit so slightly less than double. But the combined airline won’t grow at twice the pace as the two separate airlines. The merger is meant to leap frog and take a giant step forward in jb growth plans but post integration growth won’t all the sudden accelerate

Originally Posted by Bluedriver

Justabusdriver, I do agree that a larger more stable better paying combined airline will likely see less attrition. That's a good point. However I also believe neither JB nor NK has been able to grow as fast as they hoped in the last few years, partly due to attrition, attraction, and aircraft delivery delays. For Spirit's they haven't been able to grow the group large enough to fully utilize their fleet, and this has also been the case at Blue, but to a lesser extent.

In the coming years aircraft delivery delays should normalize, and both JB and NK should be able to get aircraft utilization up (as a combined company) relative to recent years. At the same time I do not see pilot utilization going up from where it is, at least on the JB side. Other than the change from going from 3 fleets to 2.

Net that all out and I'm not sure I see upgrade slowing nearly as much as was suggested. But none of us know how the coming years will go, so there's that.

Upgrades at the legacies will also be slowing in the coming years as they hit the back sides of there hiring curve.

Agree with Excargo, need to have a great reserve section in the CBA. It should be an additional attractive bidding option that all can chose to utilize often or occasionally as they see fit.

I don't think 200 FO's senior to the junior captain is an unusual number though. I think you will find that statistically at all airlines as some guys prefer schedule control/seniority in seat over a little more money and the loss of seniority that comes with early upgrade.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver

I think he was responding to a guy who drops most of his schedule to be a part-time NK pilot, while he spends most of his time running "the family business".

So he just pretends to work at Spirit, part time, sometimes. That's what I understand his response to mean.

Originally Posted by Justabusdriver1

Maybe my words were minced. I don’t think upgrades will slow just that if each airline upgrades 10 each month the combined won’t all of the sudden upgrade 20 despite the group being nearly twice as big. If there’s twice as many fos on the seniority list it’s going to take longer for someone new to gain enough seniority to get the call.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver

I think this is going to prove to be inaccurate. Upgrade at Blue is around the same as Spirit. Add the two companies together, you also add the two order books together, some additional staffing required for JCBA rules, staffing for transatlantic ops, and I don't see why the upgrade time changes dramatically from current. If both companies have 3 year upgrades separately, no reason putting them together suddenly means 8-10 year upgrades.

Originally Posted by Bluedriver

Not sure what that hot mess was trying to say, but let's spell it out.

JB has 18 month upgrades on the E190, around 4 years I think on the A220/A320. When the E190s are replaced with all A220s, I would expect upgrade to level somewhere between the 18 months and 4 years, call it 3. They are upgrading at that rate because of 300 aircraft existing, deliveries, attrition and retirements.

Spirit has a 3-4 year upgrade (I believe). That upgrade is to support around ~200 aircraft, deliveries, attrition and maybe a few retirements.

Put the two together you still have to staff 500 aircraft, you will then have TWO order books to staff for, some attrition, some retirements, the upstaffing required for JCBA rules, staffing to get aircraft utilization back up to historical norms, and you will always have upgrade bypassers.

If both airlines were mature, you could see a situation where 2+2 equals 3.5 when combined. That is NOT JB+NK, and the airline wants to fully compete with the big 4 and grow.

There is no reason to believe upgrade time will double at the combined company.​​​​​

Originally Posted by AllOva736

that’s fine I just don’t see the issue with it. This job is unique in the way that going to work is the opposite of being at or near home. Personally I have months that I want to spend time at home and credit 40 hours and others that I want 90+. Not advocating for being lazy but the option is invaluable​​​​​​.

Originally Posted by Excargodog

Just out of curiosity, would you care to estimate how long it takes after upgrade for a CA to hold a line in the 220/320 at JB?

Thanks

Originally Posted by Bluedriver

I'll look when I have time. Shortest will be BOS/JFK.