Lakeaffect

I’m not leaving. I’m too old with too much seniority, QOL is amazing. Potential new-hires today have better options. The thread is about potential new hires not line holding captains. If you live in base by all means come here it’s a great option. But bases come and go and as it stands we are significantly underpaid and RSV can’t drop. Pay will come here eventually, but quick seniority progression has already slowed and will continue I think.

dualinput

A new hire today is a lot different than someone at the top 15%. Bring at the bottom of spirit/JetBlue also very different than being at the bottom of a legacy. Legacy is the much better option by far right now if starting at the bottom.

SoFloFlyer

People saying to stay at a regional versus coming here is on crack and should have their medical revoked..

- The benefits here are better.
- I don’t have to commute to 18 days of reserve in the NE and sit in a CrashPad.
- Long term, money is always going to be better here.
- Retirement is WORLDS better here.
- If I wanted to fly at my old regional, I had to pick up out of base and usually we’re 2-3 days trips that aren’t commutable on one end (if there were any trips at all).
- Career progression is better.
- More relevant type.

I would rather deal with reserve here from the comfort of my home than a CrashPad so QOL is still a good reason to come here.

For the people who think the regionals have out better, y’all could go there as DEC and “make a ton of money.” Let me know how that works out for you

ProPilotBlue

Looking at all of these regional rates just makes me scream "Don't fall for it!" in my head, directed at all of the guys at those regionals. Get the hëll out of the regionals, even if it means going to somewhere that you don't like as much. It is better to wait for a legacy call when you're sitting somewhere that has the same name on the paint of the airplane and the paycheck. Also, the regionals are paying these rates because they are desperate. With pay rates that high, their cost structure is going to put them out of business and/or the legacies will simply take that flying back and fly regional jets in-house because it is cheaper to do it in-house rather than farm it out to an expensive regional. Personally, I think this is just a sign that the regionals are going to finally go the way of the do-do bird. At long last.

As for why someone should go to Spirit (or JetBlue), there are lots of reasons. Someone said in a previous post that AA pilots make more. I don't think that's true. Their pay rates may be higher, but there is far more to pay than just the pay rate. I bet that a Spirit guy who hustles a little on the X list (VDA days for JetBlue) earns more than an AA guy. And their work rules suuuuuuuuuuuck. The grass isn't always greener.

Lakeaffect

If you get turned down by UA, WN, DL, AA, FDX, UPS, and JBLU then yes choose NK over your regional. It just makes more sense now than it ever has to wait it out a little longer at your regional to try to get on with one of those carriers, before coming to NK. They all have better pay and better seniority progression and are hiring like crazy.

W6TRP

Honest question why would upgrade times get far worse at NK post merger? With both airlines with large order books and a desire to continue growth wouldn’t that increase the CA needs over the coming years? Are we talking 5, 7, 10 years?


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baseball3792

Same thoughts here. I don’t really think they’d get worse. FOs and junior CAs will keep leaving to go to legacy’s. More planes means more captains. I don’t see why much will change in the near future.

When I started at regionals I was told a four year upgrade. Within a year, it was a 0 month upgrade. Things change quickly, either way.

onedolla

Then think about it this way: if you upgrade, someone needs to take your spot. We don’t allow captains to fly in the right seat here. FOs leaving doesn’t magically make upgrades better when there’s not enough in the pipeline to replace them.

FLYBOYMATTHEW

The combined airline today has about 473 A/C, 7,875 pilots. Since there are minimal retirements between the 2 airlines, someone hired today will need a few thousand pilots below them to upgrade, and this will have to come from growth or attrition since retirements are minimal. Let's say we got 200 new A/C. That'll require 3,300 additional pilots at the ratio of 16.5 pilots per A/C. Now we'd be a 673 A/C airline with 11,175 pilots. If nobody left, and nobody retired during the time it took to add 200 new A/C, someone hired today would then have 3,300 pilots below them. Still probably not enough to get that left seat. Obviously you could assume some retirements and attrition in your calculations, and multiple A/C types and several bases improve one's time to upgrade, but you get the idea.

How long would it take the combined airline to add 200 A/C, or grow by roughly 40%? NK is past it's massive growth phase, and our seniority lists are both fairly stagnant at the higher seniority levels.

Excargodog

Well, the B6 pilot group - at least those aboard before the cutoff date - is generally senior to the NK group and has NOT been expanding 15% per year preCOVID. Both groups are relatively young and don’t have legions of imminent retirements. Post merger, many of the incoming aircraft will go to replace some of the older B6 aircraft and the retiring E-190 aircraft so the net effect on new guys will be a slowing of seniority by expansion. Just how much depends on whether they are able to control attrition but generally speaking once a CA gets senior enough to hold a line they generally stay put.

I’m guessing maybe a five year upgrade for someone starting today, which by historical measures is pretty good actually, but nowhere near the current opportunities for NB upgrades at some multi type legacies that incentivized their senior pilots to take early retirement at the onset of COVID and still have a decade of high age-related retirement numbers coming.