Moving On
07-23-2022, 11:45 AM
#1
Line Holder
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jun 2022
Posts: 30
Moving On
I know plenty of folks are moving on right now, but I'm look for people who have been here a while and are older who have moved on. I have an offer at a legacy, and I need to make a decision as to whether or not to leave. I've been here about 10 years and have about 15 years left to retirement. If there is anyone else in a similar position any thoughts are appreciated, or anyone who has left how do you feel about your decision?
07-24-2022, 05:28 PM
#2
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2020
Posts: 498
Not in this position and without knowing your personal situation, it’s hard to know. Would switching to a legacy have meaningful QOL implications? At least for me, that’s what it would come down to. If you’re a CA who currently drives to work, it’s probably not worth it. If you’re a commuter and switching meant driving to work, I’d do it in a heartbeat.
07-25-2022, 05:17 AM
#3
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Position: A319, A320, A321
Posts: 548
Not in this position and without knowing your personal situation, it’s hard to know. Would switching to a legacy have meaningful QOL implications? At least for me, that’s what it would come down to. If you’re a CA who currently drives to work, it’s probably not worth it. If you’re a commuter and switching meant driving to work, I’d do it in a heartbeat.
But if you commute and you can possibly drive, maybe that's worth it to you. Good luck.
07-25-2022, 07:23 AM
#4
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,203
Yep, seniority sort of traps you - and not necessarily in a bad way either. By the time you are off reserve as a CA, the payback for jumping to other opportunities becomes less and less and - depending on your age - might actually be a negative. The kicker is whether or not the JCBA (no matter who it is with) can hold the line (or even improve) on the QOL stuff NK has. And I doubt anyone will have a handle on that really for 18 mo to 2 years.
07-25-2022, 08:21 AM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2014
Posts: 447
This is something I'm struggling with as well, although I've only been here 3 years. So I still haven't fully vested in the direct contribution, and I only have 10 years left. I also haven't upgraded yet and think it is 2 years away. I think anything that is announced will be a minimum of 2 years before we are that new airline, and negotiations for a contract would be a complete guess, and with any big change like this I see a lot of pain before it its smooth sailing. The management here has been focused on the merger, and less and less on running the airline. The attitude has quickly changed and from being a cohesive relationship to we don't really care if you leave.
On the other side, I'm worried about the economy and how it will affect the industry. Leaving now and being jr could mean furlough and further setbacks with only 10 years left, depending on the airline. If I was 10 years younger, I'd be gone. My situation is similar to the OP but with much less time to recover if something should go wrong, but less financial setbacks and seniority QoL loss.
On the other side, I'm worried about the economy and how it will affect the industry. Leaving now and being jr could mean furlough and further setbacks with only 10 years left, depending on the airline. If I was 10 years younger, I'd be gone. My situation is similar to the OP but with much less time to recover if something should go wrong, but less financial setbacks and seniority QoL loss.
07-25-2022, 09:02 AM
#6
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,203
This is something I'm struggling with as well, although I've only been here 3 years. So I still haven't fully vested in the direct contribution, and I only have 10 years left. I also haven't upgraded yet and think it is 2 years away. I think anything that is announced will be a minimum of 2 years before we are that new airline, and negotiations for a contract would be a complete guess, and with any big change like this I see a lot of pain before it its smooth sailing. The management here has been focused on the merger, and less and less on running the airline. The attitude has quickly changed and from being a cohesive relationship to we don't really care if you leave.
On the other side, I'm worried about the economy and how it will affect the industry. Leaving now and being jr could mean furlough and further setbacks with only 10 years left, depending on the airline. If I was 10 years younger, I'd be gone. My situation is similar to the OP but with much less time to recover if something should go wrong, but less financial setbacks and seniority QoL loss.
On the other side, I'm worried about the economy and how it will affect the industry. Leaving now and being jr could mean furlough and further setbacks with only 10 years left, depending on the airline. If I was 10 years younger, I'd be gone. My situation is similar to the OP but with much less time to recover if something should go wrong, but less financial setbacks and seniority QoL loss.
Growth is already slowing in response to the Fed’s repeated interest rate increases, with the housing market softening, technology companies curbing hiring and unemployment claims edging up.
But with inflation proving persistent at a four-decade high, a growing number of analysts say it will take a recession -- and markedly higher joblessness -- to ease price pressures significantly. A Bloomberg survey of economists this month put the probability of a downturn over the next 12 months at 47.5%, up from 30% in June.
“We have to curb things domestically to help us get where we want to go on inflation,” said Bank of America chief US economist Michael Gapen, who’s forecast a mild recession starting in the second half of 2022.
After raising rates in June by the most since 1994, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues are expected to approve another 75 basis-point hike this week and signal their intention to keep moving higher in the months ahead. Powell has said that failing to restore price stability would be a “bigger mistake” than pushing the US into a recession
But with inflation proving persistent at a four-decade high, a growing number of analysts say it will take a recession -- and markedly higher joblessness -- to ease price pressures significantly. A Bloomberg survey of economists this month put the probability of a downturn over the next 12 months at 47.5%, up from 30% in June.
“We have to curb things domestically to help us get where we want to go on inflation,” said Bank of America chief US economist Michael Gapen, who’s forecast a mild recession starting in the second half of 2022.
After raising rates in June by the most since 1994, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues are expected to approve another 75 basis-point hike this week and signal their intention to keep moving higher in the months ahead. Powell has said that failing to restore price stability would be a “bigger mistake” than pushing the US into a recession
07-25-2022, 11:33 AM
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,796
I know plenty of folks are moving on right now, but I'm look for people who have been here a while and are older who have moved on. I have an offer at a legacy, and I need to make a decision as to whether or not to leave. I've been here about 10 years and have about 15 years left to retirement. If there is anyone else in a similar position any thoughts are appreciated, or anyone who has left how do you feel about your decision?
I figure 7-8 year break even and hope that seniority list movement will mitigate recession concerns moving forward. Hard choice. Didn’t want to leave, but I feel that waiting on the final outcome of whatever spirit will become will make me miss opportunities elsewhere. Maybe I’ll regret that and maybe I won’t. Check back in 2-3 years.
The wife has a good, secure job and has dug her heels into where we live. She’s not moving, I’m not commuting and I don’t want find out I’m a commuter in a few years when the legacies start hitting the tail end of their hiring waves.
A few year’s difference in age or seniority either way would have made the decision for me, but I struggled over this one in my current situation.
Best of luck with whatever you decide.
07-25-2022, 11:35 AM
#9
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: Airplanes
Posts: 1,405
This is something I'm struggling with as well, although I've only been here 3 years. So I still haven't fully vested in the direct contribution, and I only have 10 years left. I also haven't upgraded yet and think it is 2 years away. I think anything that is announced will be a minimum of 2 years before we are that new airline, and negotiations for a contract would be a complete guess, and with any big change like this I see a lot of pain before it its smooth sailing. The management here has been focused on the merger, and less and less on running the airline. The attitude has quickly changed and from being a cohesive relationship to we don't really care if you leave.
On the other side, I'm worried about the economy and how it will affect the industry. Leaving now and being jr could mean furlough and further setbacks with only 10 years left, depending on the airline. If I was 10 years younger, I'd be gone. My situation is similar to the OP but with much less time to recover if something should go wrong, but less financial setbacks and seniority QoL loss.
On the other side, I'm worried about the economy and how it will affect the industry. Leaving now and being jr could mean furlough and further setbacks with only 10 years left, depending on the airline. If I was 10 years younger, I'd be gone. My situation is similar to the OP but with much less time to recover if something should go wrong, but less financial setbacks and seniority QoL loss.
07-25-2022, 11:36 AM
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: Airplanes
Posts: 1,405
5 years on property at NK. Junior CA, eternal reserve and maybe displaced, albeit slowly, from my base. 22 years left to go. I pulled the handle and start elsewhere in a few days.
I figure 7-8 year break even and hope that seniority list movement will mitigate recession concerns moving forward. Hard choice. Didn’t want to leave, but I feel that waiting on the final outcome of whatever spirit will become will make me miss opportunities elsewhere. Maybe I’ll regret that and maybe I won’t. Check back in 2-3 years.
The wife has a good, secure job and has dug her heels into where we live. She’s not moving, I’m not commuting and I don’t want find out I’m a commuter in a few years when the legacies start hitting the tail end of their hiring waves.
A few year’s difference in age or seniority either way would have made the decision for me, but I struggled over this one in my current situation.
Best of luck with whatever you decide.
I figure 7-8 year break even and hope that seniority list movement will mitigate recession concerns moving forward. Hard choice. Didn’t want to leave, but I feel that waiting on the final outcome of whatever spirit will become will make me miss opportunities elsewhere. Maybe I’ll regret that and maybe I won’t. Check back in 2-3 years.
The wife has a good, secure job and has dug her heels into where we live. She’s not moving, I’m not commuting and I don’t want find out I’m a commuter in a few years when the legacies start hitting the tail end of their hiring waves.
A few year’s difference in age or seniority either way would have made the decision for me, but I struggled over this one in my current situation.
Best of luck with whatever you decide.
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