Attrition
02-05-2022, 12:18 PM
#701
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 940
Since this is sort of a unique situation, your analysis is likely equally probable with mine. But I think it ignores a few things.
The comeback from COVID has ALSO placed an enormous training burden in the legacies and despite some of them trimming their fleets, they all still have multi type fleets. Every single vacancy bid creates a domino effect, not just one new type rating but oftentimes two or three, and some of those training departments are still trying to catch up on the training required of their existing pilots. For NK every single pilot can fly every single aircraft, and somebody moving into the left seat is a simple upgrade, not a new type for three other guys as they play the 737 to 777 to 778 shuffle with FOs. The training needs of a multi type fleet are VASTLY greater than those of a single type fleet and always will be. And as long as those different types pay different amounts, there will always be churn. And that is costly, even just as downtime, because people in classes and sims are not flying the line. Once again I see this as - advantage ULCC.
And the breakup of the regionals is going to hurt the legacies far more than the ULCCs. Already the regionals are having to contract their schedules due to losing so many CAs. You are going to find a lot of FOs stranded - hired during COVID or slightly before who spent a year on reserve who will have four or five hundred hours of 121 time - nowhere near upgrade - who will fly less and less because there aren’t enough CAs to support the flying. Look at the bonuses the regionals are offering for DECs. They are desperate. So when the more vulnerable of the regionals go under because they don’t have enough CA’s to fly their lines, where are those mid-level FOs going to go? To start over at another regional? He//, why not a ULCC, new and more desirable type. As long as your seniority is shot anyway, why not? You might like it enough to make a career of it, rather than starting all over as the plug at another regional.
And yes, management is going to have to pony up some money to make it happen, certainly give insurance coverage and better pay to new hires and more to everyone else as well, but they already knew they’d have to do that at the next CBA anyway. They just need to not drag it out and to do it a few years quicker than they thought, to take advantage of a huge opportunity.
The comeback from COVID has ALSO placed an enormous training burden in the legacies and despite some of them trimming their fleets, they all still have multi type fleets. Every single vacancy bid creates a domino effect, not just one new type rating but oftentimes two or three, and some of those training departments are still trying to catch up on the training required of their existing pilots. For NK every single pilot can fly every single aircraft, and somebody moving into the left seat is a simple upgrade, not a new type for three other guys as they play the 737 to 777 to 778 shuffle with FOs. The training needs of a multi type fleet are VASTLY greater than those of a single type fleet and always will be. And as long as those different types pay different amounts, there will always be churn. And that is costly, even just as downtime, because people in classes and sims are not flying the line. Once again I see this as - advantage ULCC.
And the breakup of the regionals is going to hurt the legacies far more than the ULCCs. Already the regionals are having to contract their schedules due to losing so many CAs. You are going to find a lot of FOs stranded - hired during COVID or slightly before who spent a year on reserve who will have four or five hundred hours of 121 time - nowhere near upgrade - who will fly less and less because there aren’t enough CAs to support the flying. Look at the bonuses the regionals are offering for DECs. They are desperate. So when the more vulnerable of the regionals go under because they don’t have enough CA’s to fly their lines, where are those mid-level FOs going to go? To start over at another regional? He//, why not a ULCC, new and more desirable type. As long as your seniority is shot anyway, why not? You might like it enough to make a career of it, rather than starting all over as the plug at another regional.
And yes, management is going to have to pony up some money to make it happen, certainly give insurance coverage and better pay to new hires and more to everyone else as well, but they already knew they’d have to do that at the next CBA anyway. They just need to not drag it out and to do it a few years quicker than they thought, to take advantage of a huge opportunity.
Remember the churn that you speak of at the big three is actually getting minimized. For instance right now at UA they are putting off the street new hires into every fleet. So, there is no churn out of the NB FO seat to fill the 777/787 demand. Those folks are coming entirely from regionals/ULCCs and military. So in the past that churn on the low end was a problem for the big three, but right now that problem has been transferred from the big 3 to the regionals and ULCCs. Additionally, since the big 3 had the advantage of knowing well in advance how much they wanted to train this winter and spring they were able to take action to get their training capacity spooled up much earlier. For any ULCC that is just now reacting to that need, I think is too late.
All of this is why I believe that the summer schedule for airline travel is going to be an absolute mess. Regionals aren't going to be able to cover anywhere near what the big 3 are going to want. ULCCs aren't going to be able to grow and a number of them are going to need to shrink. The first significant weather system on a weekend is going to lead to meltdowns everywhere.
I do think that the regionals are going to suffer the most and that in the mid term will help the ULCCs and in the long term help us all. But I think everything between now and the end of August is going to be one staffing @#$%show after another, especially at the regionals and the ULCCs. I would not want to be a commuter out of a station that only had regionals or ULCCs!
Ironically I think that the ones that are going to fair the best is anyone that actually is aggressive in the pulldown category, but the $$ involved don't usually translate into people following that plan. I can write a plan on paper that will show it can work, that wont last 2 minutes into the actual operation and that is with the manpower plan being accurate. Imagine what it will look like when you have to throw out the manpower plan from a month ago because you have 2-3% less First Officers!
02-05-2022, 12:53 PM
#702
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,114
In the SHORT term, it is going to be a mess. Just read the regional threads and see the problems they are having already. But I think you forget the thing driving legacy hiring. It’s RETIREMENTS, both those incentivized early in COVID and the age related transitions ongoing. Of course newbies are going in at the bottom. Lacking any seniority whatsoever, they go into whatever vacancy the company wants them in. But it’s the retirements at the top that start the domino effect in training. These are - in general - the most desirable slots around, and anybody who isn’t seat locked can bid on them. In A ULCC you have basically two levels of pay at any seniority, FO and CA. But with four or five types, often with different levels of pay and operating out of different bases - some more senior than others - the incentive to move from fleet to fleet is a very real one and the churn from retirements is always there. That is going to be a HUGE overhead cost for them in the future - not just that it brings with it the cost of multiple sims and multiple FAA training programs, but that you are PAYING those people and they aren’t generating revenue while they are going through the program.
You better believe when a senior 787 guy retires, other people will want that job. The guy who gets it will be the most senior guy who bids for it, not necessarily the most senior 787 FO. When NK or F9 loses a CA, it costs an upgrade of someone in the same type and current in the aircraft and the loss of productivity of that person and their pay while in training as well as the cost of the recruiting and training and a couple months of the pitifully poor first year pay for the NK or F9 newbie. But type ratings brought on by retirements are often a new type rating for an existing CA of ten years and their loss of productivity. The money involved isn’t even close. It’s a HUGE ULCC advantage, and don’t let management try to convince you any different.
The ULCCs are NOT at a disadvantage to the legacies in this situation, they have opportunities they have never had before. And will it cost them money to seize those advantages? Yeah, but the next CBA was going to cost them money anyway barring a recession or a couple of legacies going bankrupt, and they are bright enough to know that.
You better believe when a senior 787 guy retires, other people will want that job. The guy who gets it will be the most senior guy who bids for it, not necessarily the most senior 787 FO. When NK or F9 loses a CA, it costs an upgrade of someone in the same type and current in the aircraft and the loss of productivity of that person and their pay while in training as well as the cost of the recruiting and training and a couple months of the pitifully poor first year pay for the NK or F9 newbie. But type ratings brought on by retirements are often a new type rating for an existing CA of ten years and their loss of productivity. The money involved isn’t even close. It’s a HUGE ULCC advantage, and don’t let management try to convince you any different.
The ULCCs are NOT at a disadvantage to the legacies in this situation, they have opportunities they have never had before. And will it cost them money to seize those advantages? Yeah, but the next CBA was going to cost them money anyway barring a recession or a couple of legacies going bankrupt, and they are bright enough to know that.
02-05-2022, 02:35 PM
#703
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 940
In the SHORT term, it is going to be a mess. Just read the regional threads and see the problems they are having already. But I think you forget the thing driving legacy hiring. It’s RETIREMENTS, both those incentivized early in COVID and the age related transitions ongoing. Of course newbies are going in at the bottom. Lacking any seniority whatsoever, they go into whatever vacancy the company wants them in. But it’s the retirements at the top that start the domino effect in training. These are - in general - the most desirable slots around, and anybody who isn’t seat locked can bid on them. In A ULCC you have basically two levels of pay at any seniority, FO and CA. But with four or five types, often with different levels of pay and operating out of different bases - some more senior than others - the incentive to move from fleet to fleet is a very real one and the churn from retirements is always there. That is going to be a HUGE overhead cost for them in the future - not just that it brings with it the cost of multiple sims and multiple FAA training programs, but that you are PAYING those people and they aren’t generating revenue while they are going through the program.
You better believe when a senior 787 guy retires, other people will want that job. The guy who gets it will be the most senior guy who bids for it, not necessarily the most senior 787 FO. When NK or F9 loses a CA, it costs an upgrade of someone in the same type and current in the aircraft and the loss of productivity of that person and their pay while in training as well as the cost of the recruiting and training and a couple months of the pitifully poor first year pay for the NK or F9 newbie. But type ratings brought on by retirements are often a new type rating for an existing CA of ten years and their loss of productivity. The money involved isn’t even close. It’s a HUGE ULCC advantage, and don’t let management try to convince you any different.
The ULCCs are NOT at a disadvantage to the legacies in this situation, they have opportunities they have never had before. And will it cost them money to seize those advantages? Yeah, but the next CBA was going to cost them money anyway barring a recession or a couple of legacies going bankrupt, and they are bright enough to know that.
You better believe when a senior 787 guy retires, other people will want that job. The guy who gets it will be the most senior guy who bids for it, not necessarily the most senior 787 FO. When NK or F9 loses a CA, it costs an upgrade of someone in the same type and current in the aircraft and the loss of productivity of that person and their pay while in training as well as the cost of the recruiting and training and a couple months of the pitifully poor first year pay for the NK or F9 newbie. But type ratings brought on by retirements are often a new type rating for an existing CA of ten years and their loss of productivity. The money involved isn’t even close. It’s a HUGE ULCC advantage, and don’t let management try to convince you any different.
The ULCCs are NOT at a disadvantage to the legacies in this situation, they have opportunities they have never had before. And will it cost them money to seize those advantages? Yeah, but the next CBA was going to cost them money anyway barring a recession or a couple of legacies going bankrupt, and they are bright enough to know that.
Guess we are somewhat talking past each other. Yes, ULCCs and the big 3 have entirely different models. The big 3 have taken on the additional costs of having multiple fleet types. With that they get revenue from sources that aren't readily available to the ULCCs. The additional costs are absolutely real, so are the additional revenues. Those differences are important on the $ side of things for sure. Having a single fleet is definitely a savings on training costs, no dispute there.
What I am talking about is strictly on the manpower side of things. Regardless of the costs, the big 3 are hiring at a record pace and it is that hiring that is driving the attrition at the regionals and the ULCCs. Whether that hiring is too expensive or not, does not change the fact that, in the short term, it is happening and every airline has to deal with it.
To say that the hiring we are seeing at the big 3 is "It's retirments" is completely wrong! What is driving it is that all of them are in the process of moving flying from the regionals to the mainline. They all recognize (perhaps Delta first) that the 50 seat airplane is a POS and even if they liked it, there would not be enough pilots to fly it! So, they are systematically upgrading their aircraft size across their entire route map. Several small cities will fall off the map, but the ones that remain will be upgauged. Looking at the fleet plan for each airline you can see this transformation.
In the case of UA for instance, we are getting 40 more NB aircraft this year, 138 NB aircraft next year and have an additional 300+ on order. There is no plan to park any of our current aircraft for the next several years, as all of these new aircraft are "replacing" 50 seaters at the regionals.
Between now and the end of 2023 we have 459 pilots that will reach age 65. (relatively low for us due to the previous early out) In that same time we will take delivery of almost 180 NB aircraft!!! That will drive at least 1800 new pilot jobs by the end of 2023. That doesn't include the hiring to cover the 15+ 787s we are supposed to take delivery of in that timeframe (if Boeing can get it together and start delivering those again). That means that we will have to have hired at least 2260 pilots by the middle of 2023 to get all the pilots needed on the line by Christmas 2023. Only 20% of those hired would be due to retirements. So, it is not retirements that is driving the hiring, it is the transformation of the industry that is happening all around us as we speak. Less regional flying, more mainline flying. That is great news for all of us in the long term.
In the short term there will be pain!!! That pain should help us all get some much needed contractual improvements, but even with those, I think this summer is going to be a trainwreck on the operational side of things!
02-05-2022, 03:09 PM
#704
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,792
It’s an entirely preventable train wreck that everyone can see coming 4 months out. That’s on management.
And it doesn’t matter if they’re smart people. There is no shortage of smart people who could not or would not change and adapt to a paradigm shift in their industry.
And it doesn’t matter if they’re smart people. There is no shortage of smart people who could not or would not change and adapt to a paradigm shift in their industry.
02-05-2022, 05:25 PM
#705
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2017
Posts: 3,230
everyone is jumping off...
02-05-2022, 05:34 PM
#706
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 439
02-05-2022, 05:36 PM
#707
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2019
Posts: 988
02-05-2022, 06:33 PM
#710
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 200
Which one quit? I'm not good buddies with any P2P members so I might never find out and we all know the company isn't worth a **** for communications. Just want to make sure I'm not sending emails to an abandoned account.
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