Attrition
11-17-2023, 10:51 AM
#3491
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,920
Yes, it's is the most recent I have, and I did acnowledge the year, and seeing as it is a year old I said 7 instead of 8 years for the NK people....
When was your most junior 320 PIC hired? And same for 320 PIC lineholder? I was a PIC holding a line after 3 years, that is probably a few years longer now, but I would guess still way faster than at JB.
Send me a copy of the 2023, and I will update accordingly....
When was your most junior 320 PIC hired? And same for 320 PIC lineholder? I was a PIC holding a line after 3 years, that is probably a few years longer now, but I would guess still way faster than at JB.
Send me a copy of the 2023, and I will update accordingly....
You asked about the 320, but I'm not sure if you know this but we also have an Airbus A220, which pays $317 an hour today and $341 and hour left seat August of next year. Do you bid an aircraft to win a Johnson-measuring contest or for money? I'm not going to go data mining the whole seniority list but junior Capt with an effective date of:
June '24 is:
A220 April 19
A320 April 18
Dec '24:
A220 Sept 19
A320 April 18
That system bid closed in Aug 23.
If NK upgrades are slowing now, or have slowed recently as I thought I read here recently, then all your recent year NK data is irrelevant. What was, is not now.
We have many bases and multiple effective dates, I had to look around for the data and could have missed something more junior. But I don't think your characterization of 7-8 year upgrades is fair for JB. Looks to be about 5 on the A220 and 6 on the A320.
11-17-2023, 11:14 AM
#3492
Line holder
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: On the bus,seat 0A
Posts: 3,330
Did I not read that upgrades have come to a near halt at NK? You seem to using old data and presenting it as predictive of the future. Also, how quickly you upgraded 7-10 YEARS ago is hardly a data point in the current environment.
You asked about the 320, but I'm not sure if you know this but we also have an Airbus A220, which pays $317 an hour today and $341 and hour left seat August of next year. Do you bid an aircraft to win a Johnson-measuring contest or for money? I'm not going to go data mining the whole seniority list but junior Capt with an effective date of:
June '24 is:
A220 April 19
A320 April 18
Dec '24:
A220 Sept 19
A320 April 18
That system bid closed in Aug 23.
If NK upgrades are slowing now, or have slowed recently as I thought I read here recently, then all your recent year NK data is irrelevant. What was, is not now.
We have many bases and multiple effective dates, I had to look around for the data and could have missed something more junior. But I don't think your characterization of 7-8 year upgrades is fair for JB. Looks to be about 5 on the A220 and 6 on the A320.
You asked about the 320, but I'm not sure if you know this but we also have an Airbus A220, which pays $317 an hour today and $341 and hour left seat August of next year. Do you bid an aircraft to win a Johnson-measuring contest or for money? I'm not going to go data mining the whole seniority list but junior Capt with an effective date of:
June '24 is:
A220 April 19
A320 April 18
Dec '24:
A220 Sept 19
A320 April 18
That system bid closed in Aug 23.
If NK upgrades are slowing now, or have slowed recently as I thought I read here recently, then all your recent year NK data is irrelevant. What was, is not now.
We have many bases and multiple effective dates, I had to look around for the data and could have missed something more junior. But I don't think your characterization of 7-8 year upgrades is fair for JB. Looks to be about 5 on the A220 and 6 on the A320.
if you read my post, in no way was I using those numbers to predict the future. I specifically said I do not believe in 15 % growth, or ual going to 24k....
the reason I mentioned your longer upgrade, is that it means that unless we keep RS after ISL (unlikely) former NK will be stuck behind former JB who can now upgrade.
11-17-2023, 11:23 AM
#3493
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,920
My whole point was that upgrade at NK was coming to a grinding halt (regardless of the merger)I assumed that junior 320 was now around 2017, based on it being 2016 a year ago. Your 2024 bid at oct 2018 doesn't really contradict that at all. And yes, you have a handful of 220s, all based where NK doesn't have bases. No one is going to commute from LA to Boston for an earlier upgrade and a seat lock.
if you read my post, in no way was I using those numbers to predict the future. I specifically said I do not believe in 15 % growth, or ual going to 24k....
if you read my post, in no way was I using those numbers to predict the future. I specifically said I do not believe in 15 % growth, or ual going to 24k....
But, I think I just read your post wrong with respect to message and intentions.
11-17-2023, 03:10 PM
#3494
Line holder
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: On the bus,seat 0A
Posts: 3,330
He, no problem. And maybe I misunderstand because we (used to?) have monthly bids, but when you say effective Dec 2024, that means a year from now to me, am I wrong?
11-17-2023, 03:35 PM
#3495
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2015
Position: 777 CA
Posts: 1,039
I don't believe the UAL growth numbers. But if you are happy being on a NB, and we should be at NK&JB, you can look at UA as a NB operator with 14k pilots, and a separate SL with 3k WB pilots who are far more senior, but don't matter:
At 10 years you would be at 50%, if they grow to 18k, (and at 20 years with 20k pilots, 4k WB, you would be at 25%, (yes, there will be Junior WB FOs, and senior NB captains, but still).
If the merger happens, I don't see NKJB growing at 15% per year, or even doubling in size in the next 10 years. Junior captain at NK is 5 years, with 50%RS, JB 5 years is about 70%. So after JCBA 60% of 8.5k, #5100. Retirements in the next 10 years about 1500 (less than 500@ NK, don't know JB, but probably a bit higher), no growth you would be 42%, 10k pilots 36%. Not a big difference IMHO, especially if you take into consideration giving up 5 years.... (yes, numbers are based of semi-educated guesses, and things can change). But 5 years in and 20 to go I think right now the best time to go UAL would have been last year, and still would leave myself right now if I had that much time left.
Having WBs makes the progression totally different from NK(JB).
At 10 years you would be at 50%, if they grow to 18k, (and at 20 years with 20k pilots, 4k WB, you would be at 25%, (yes, there will be Junior WB FOs, and senior NB captains, but still).
If the merger happens, I don't see NKJB growing at 15% per year, or even doubling in size in the next 10 years. Junior captain at NK is 5 years, with 50%RS, JB 5 years is about 70%. So after JCBA 60% of 8.5k, #5100. Retirements in the next 10 years about 1500 (less than 500@ NK, don't know JB, but probably a bit higher), no growth you would be 42%, 10k pilots 36%. Not a big difference IMHO, especially if you take into consideration giving up 5 years.... (yes, numbers are based of semi-educated guesses, and things can change). But 5 years in and 20 to go I think right now the best time to go UAL would have been last year, and still would leave myself right now if I had that much time left.
Having WBs makes the progression totally different from NK(JB).
We have about 6500 pilots on the Guppy and 2000 on the Bus.
11-17-2023, 03:59 PM
#3496
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,920
I looked briefly at the Q1/Q2 '24 effective dates, and they weren't much different, but a little more senior. But not much. So when you consider the earlier effective dates, with slightly higher seniority, still probably about the same "time to left seat".
Just to add some color, we have 20 A220s. With ~20 coming next year, and coming heavy after that. Supposedly next base will be Florida, and they have plans for a new base in the middle of the country for the A220, if everything goes to plan. We have a lot of Midwest commuters to BOS/NY. Ask me how I know. For lots of us, the Spirit Midwest bases still don't look appealing to many of us because they are small, and often senior. Unless you live in that city of course. So just as many of our Midwest guys still view BOS as more appealing, with the info we have now, and until the dynamics change, it's reasonable to think some Spirit Midwest guys that commute might come to the same conclusion. If you're commuting anyway, a larger more junior base has its benefits. All that to say that I think you are underestimating the relevance of our 100 A220s. At $341 an hour next Aug, it will have plenty of interest from the white shirt crowd.
Which brings me to my next point. I hope we can all push for white shirts and Karbon jackets... They can keep the Blue shoulder boards if they want to "keep it Blue".
11-19-2023, 05:25 AM
#3497
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 167
The engine issue is going to be wrecking ball with growth, fleet plan, hiring, upgrades, retention, and on and on. Interesting that NK has offered VTO to the FA's since August? And yet no current discussion of VIL for the pilots, depsite the current challenges. If your plan is to stick it out here or the combined entity I would certainly plan for long term stagnation.
11-19-2023, 07:41 AM
#3498
That/It/Thang
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,909
The engine issue is going to be wrecking ball with growth, fleet plan, hiring, upgrades, retention, and on and on. Interesting that NK has offered VTO to the FA's since August? And yet no current discussion of VIL for the pilots, depsite the current challenges. If your plan is to stick it out here or the combined entity I would certainly plan for long term stagnation.
FA have the opportunity to go away for no money and I think keep flight benefits, great for a 22 year old with 5 roommates
ALPA won’t agree to any free “leaves”. So it will require some sort of agreement like we had during covid. The company knows they wouldn’t get many pilots anyways, willing to take a leave for free.
If the merger fails, we furlough no doubt. Probably file chapter 11 too
If the merger is approved, I’m assuming Robin will tell Ted what he wants to be done with labor, furloughs or VILs.
Larger issue here as well. How the heck do you take planes down for 330 days for engine repairs and then take them down again for livery and interior retrofits?
It’s also going to take over a year to train spirit pilots for the JBLU certificate, and once you’re trained, you can’t go back to the NK side and fly. So lots of guys sitting around getting a check.
Going to be a long, expensive road.
11-19-2023, 07:52 AM
#3499
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2014
Posts: 445
Im right there with you on the white shirts! I heard the blue shirts can be difficult to get, and can't imagine a combined airline all trying get them. As for the Karbon, I think we look like senior Ski Patrol or ski lift operators. Would much prefer the leather or some other top coat approiate to a suit. But definitely not a trench coat!!
11-19-2023, 08:05 AM
#3500
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 149
Im right there with you on the white shirts! I heard the blue shirts can be difficult to get, and can't imagine a combined airline all trying get them. As for the Karbon, I think we look like senior Ski Patrol or ski lift operators. Would much prefer the leather or some other top coat approiate to a suit. But definitely not a trench coat!!
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
