Bluedriver

Did I not read that upgrades have come to a near halt at NK? You seem to using old data and presenting it as predictive of the future. Also, how quickly you upgraded 7-10 YEARS ago is hardly a data point in the current environment.

You asked about the 320, but I'm not sure if you know this but we also have an Airbus A220, which pays $317 an hour today and $341 and hour left seat August of next year. Do you bid an aircraft to win a Johnson-measuring contest or for money? I'm not going to go data mining the whole seniority list but junior Capt with an effective date of:

June '24 is:

A220 April 19
A320 April 18

Dec '24:

A220 Sept 19
A320 April 18

That system bid closed in Aug 23.

If NK upgrades are slowing now, or have slowed recently as I thought I read here recently, then all your recent year NK data is irrelevant. What was, is not now.

We have many bases and multiple effective dates, I had to look around for the data and could have missed something more junior. But I don't think your characterization of 7-8 year upgrades is fair for JB. Looks to be about 5 on the A220 and 6 on the A320.
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symbian simian

My whole point was that upgrade at NK was coming to a grinding halt (regardless of the merger)I assumed that junior 320 was now around 2017, based on it being 2016 a year ago. Your 2024 bid at oct 2018 doesn't really contradict that at all. And yes, you have a handful of 220s, all based where NK doesn't have bases. No one is going to commute from LA to Boston for an earlier upgrade and a seat lock.
if you read my post, in no way was I using those numbers to predict the future. I specifically said I do not believe in 15 % growth, or ual going to 24k....

​​​​the reason I mentioned your longer upgrade, is that it means that unless we keep RS after ISL (unlikely) former NK will be stuck behind former JB who can now upgrade.

Bluedriver

You're a pretty precise guy. There is a material difference between "2017" and mid 2018 when talking about airline upgrade times. Can easily be off by ~15-20%.

But, I think I just read your post wrong with respect to message and intentions.
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symbian simian

He, no problem. And maybe I misunderstand because we (used to?) have monthly bids, but when you say effective Dec 2024, that means a year from now to me, am I wrong?

UALinIAH

Just so real numbers are being put out, we currently are staffed at 4395 WB pilots (787/777 only) with another 1921 on the 75/76. Our 767s are slated to be retired and replaced with 787s so that even more of a % going to top pay scale.

We have about 6500 pilots on the Guppy and 2000 on the Bus.

Bluedriver

No, you are correct. We have generally 4 effective dates per year, plus usually one supplemental bid/effective date.

I looked briefly at the Q1/Q2 '24 effective dates, and they weren't much different, but a little more senior. But not much. So when you consider the earlier effective dates, with slightly higher seniority, still probably about the same "time to left seat".

Just to add some color, we have 20 A220s. With ~20 coming next year, and coming heavy after that. Supposedly next base will be Florida, and they have plans for a new base in the middle of the country for the A220, if everything goes to plan. We have a lot of Midwest commuters to BOS/NY. Ask me how I know. For lots of us, the Spirit Midwest bases still don't look appealing to many of us because they are small, and often senior. Unless you live in that city of course. So just as many of our Midwest guys still view BOS as more appealing, with the info we have now, and until the dynamics change, it's reasonable to think some Spirit Midwest guys that commute might come to the same conclusion. If you're commuting anyway, a larger more junior base has its benefits. All that to say that I think you are underestimating the relevance of our 100 A220s. At $341 an hour next Aug, it will have plenty of interest from the white shirt crowd.

Which brings me to my next point. I hope we can all push for white shirts and Karbon jackets... They can keep the Blue shoulder boards if they want to "keep it Blue".

skytrekker

The engine issue is going to be wrecking ball with growth, fleet plan, hiring, upgrades, retention, and on and on. Interesting that NK has offered VTO to the FA's since August? And yet no current discussion of VIL for the pilots, depsite the current challenges. If your plan is to stick it out here or the combined entity I would certainly plan for long term stagnation.

CincoDeMayo

It’s really not that interesting with the VIL vs VTO

FA have the opportunity to go away for no money and I think keep flight benefits, great for a 22 year old with 5 roommates

ALPA won’t agree to any free “leaves”. So it will require some sort of agreement like we had during covid. The company knows they wouldn’t get many pilots anyways, willing to take a leave for free.

If the merger fails, we furlough no doubt. Probably file chapter 11 too

If the merger is approved, I’m assuming Robin will tell Ted what he wants to be done with labor, furloughs or VILs.

Larger issue here as well. How the heck do you take planes down for 330 days for engine repairs and then take them down again for livery and interior retrofits?

It’s also going to take over a year to train spirit pilots for the JBLU certificate, and once you’re trained, you can’t go back to the NK side and fly. So lots of guys sitting around getting a check.

Going to be a long, expensive road.

Irishblackbird

Im right there with you on the white shirts! I heard the blue shirts can be difficult to get, and can't imagine a combined airline all trying get them. As for the Karbon, I think we look like senior Ski Patrol or ski lift operators. Would much prefer the leather or some other top coat approiate to a suit. But definitely not a trench coat!!

Born2FlyAv8R

both airlines already have the blazer which is “appropriate to a suit”. And you know spirit also has a leather option! But for the Karbon is amazingly comfortable, warm, and sheds water. We need to keep the Karbon option