Attrition
11-16-2023, 02:10 PM
#3482
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,920
11-16-2023, 02:32 PM
#3483
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2019
Position: baller, shot caller
Posts: 1,010
11-16-2023, 07:39 PM
#3484
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 940
Don't think we will see "direct entry" CAs there, but not that junior. Snap shot today has a Feb 22 hire holding CAP in MCO. So, even though MCO is "senior" compared to other domiciles, less than two years to hold Captain is something that doesn't seem to make sense to call Junior!
11-16-2023, 07:50 PM
#3485
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,920
Don't think we will see "direct entry" CAs there, but not that junior. Snap shot today has a Feb 22 hire holding CAP in MCO. So, even though MCO is "senior" compared to other domiciles, less than two years to hold Captain is something that doesn't seem to make sense to call Junior!
11-17-2023, 07:10 AM
#3486
Line holder
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: On the bus,seat 0A
Posts: 3,330
It's all personal numbers game. UA has just under 17,000 pilots, with 6000 to retire over the next 10 years. Even with growth to 18-20k pilots in that time you are still on the wrong side of 50% seniority at the ten year mark. That's ten years of anything better than junior narrow body reserve at the least desirable base going to anyone senior to you. The next ten years the retirements are half that number, and drops off precipitously from there, putting you somewhere between 35-40% after 20 years depending if UA can hit the 24,000 mark they have stated. Solid narrow body line holding captain in base of choice perhaps, but that's not going to put you in the gravy line widebody skipper shoes. At that point most of the pilots senior to you are likely younger, and that's twenty years of no significant industry/economic events.
At 10 years you would be at 50%, if they grow to 18k, (and at 20 years with 20k pilots, 4k WB, you would be at 25%, (yes, there will be Junior WB FOs, and senior NB captains, but still).
If the merger happens, I don't see NKJB growing at 15% per year, or even doubling in size in the next 10 years. Junior captain at NK is 5 years, with 50%RS, JB 5 years is about 70%. So after JCBA 60% of 8.5k, #5100. Retirements in the next 10 years about 1500 (less than 500@ NK, don't know JB, but probably a bit higher), no growth you would be 42%, 10k pilots 36%. Not a big difference IMHO, especially if you take into consideration giving up 5 years.... (yes, numbers are based of semi-educated guesses, and things can change). But 5 years in and 20 to go I think right now the best time to go UAL would have been last year, and still would leave myself right now if I had that much time left.
Having WBs makes the progression totally different from NK(JB).
11-17-2023, 08:11 AM
#3488
Line holder
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: On the bus,seat 0A
Posts: 3,330
Most junior NK320 PIC is a March '21 hire. Based on the '22 JB SL, most junior 320 PIC is a 2016 hire..... (yeah, they have a regional jet too, and a handfull of 220s, I know)
Run, do not walk. The stagnation for upgrade/getting of reserve as a captain for the bottom 7 year pilots at NK (2/3s of the pilots) will be bad post SLI.
Last edited by symbian simian; 11-17-2023 at 08:21 AM.
11-17-2023, 08:47 AM
#3489
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,920
Yeah, but 50% is about 5 years. And since I have been here too long, and I am old I still see that as junior
Most junior NK320 PIC is a March '21 hire. Based on the '22 JB SL, most junior 320 PIC is a 2016 hire..... (yeah, they have a regional jet too, and a handfull of 220s, I know)
Run, do not walk. The stagnation for upgrade/getting of reserve as a captain for the bottom 7 year pilots at NK (2/3s of the pilots) will be bad post SLI.
Most junior NK320 PIC is a March '21 hire. Based on the '22 JB SL, most junior 320 PIC is a 2016 hire..... (yeah, they have a regional jet too, and a handfull of 220s, I know)
Run, do not walk. The stagnation for upgrade/getting of reserve as a captain for the bottom 7 year pilots at NK (2/3s of the pilots) will be bad post SLI.
11-17-2023, 09:02 AM
#3490
Line holder
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: On the bus,seat 0A
Posts: 3,330
Yes, it's is the most recent I have, and I did acnowledge the year, and seeing as it is a year old I said 7 instead of 8 years for the NK people....
When was your most junior 320 PIC hired? And same for 320 PIC lineholder? I was a PIC holding a line after 3 years, that is probably a few years longer now, but I would guess still way faster than at JB.
Send me a copy of the 2023, and I will update accordingly....
When was your most junior 320 PIC hired? And same for 320 PIC lineholder? I was a PIC holding a line after 3 years, that is probably a few years longer now, but I would guess still way faster than at JB.
Send me a copy of the 2023, and I will update accordingly....
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