Attrition
11-16-2023, 04:50 AM
#3471
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Posts: 770
2024-3
2025-20
Furloughs will be tricky compared to normal industry furloughs in the past.
Normally it’s “we aren’t making money, we are shrinking, we need less pilots”
With the engines, the draw down is slower and measured and they have to factor in attrition without backfilling with new hires.
My guess is they will be fine on FOs with attrition and not backfilling the next 18 months. Captains will be over staffed and they will need to decide how to deal with that. I assume JBLU will have the ultimate say on this, once merger is approved
2025-20
Furloughs will be tricky compared to normal industry furloughs in the past.
Normally it’s “we aren’t making money, we are shrinking, we need less pilots”
With the engines, the draw down is slower and measured and they have to factor in attrition without backfilling with new hires.
My guess is they will be fine on FOs with attrition and not backfilling the next 18 months. Captains will be over staffed and they will need to decide how to deal with that. I assume JBLU will have the ultimate say on this, once merger is approved
I think the bigger problem is not knowing exactly how many aircraft will be out of service at any given time. Talking to a gaggle of maintenance guys the other night there are a number of factors that make it hard to pinpoint when exactly each plane will come down and how long for each. It's also not necessarily a first in, first out operation either. So some planes it might just be down long enough for an engine swap and back in service, while others sit a while.
From a staffing standpoint this makes it difficult to project how low they can take crew levels. Underutilization and inability to crew flights during a network disruption is the risk you take running too lean, and our meltdown elasticity hasn't been stellar.
11-16-2023, 04:55 AM
#3472
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Position: Student of the game
Posts: 1,026
I think the bigger problem is not knowing exactly how many aircraft will be out of service at any given time. Talking to a gaggle of maintenance guys the other night there are a number of factors that make it hard to pinpoint when exactly each plane will come down and how long for each. It's also not necessarily a first in, first out operation either. So some planes it might just be down long enough for an engine swap and back in service, while others sit a while.
From a staffing standpoint this makes it difficult to project how low they can take crew levels. Underutilization and inability to crew flights during a network disruption is the risk you take running too lean, and our meltdown elasticity hasn't been stellar.
From a staffing standpoint this makes it difficult to project how low they can take crew levels. Underutilization and inability to crew flights during a network disruption is the risk you take running too lean, and our meltdown elasticity hasn't been stellar.
11-16-2023, 04:59 AM
#3473
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2016
Posts: 170
The Spirit network guy Kirby testified in the trial last week and citied numbers of up to 70 ish planes at some point through 2025.
11-16-2023, 05:01 AM
#3474
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 149
2024-3
2025-20
Furloughs will be tricky compared to normal industry furloughs in the past.
Normally it’s “we aren’t making money, we are shrinking, we need less pilots”
With the engines, the draw down is slower and measured and they have to factor in attrition without backfilling with new hires.
My guess is they will be fine on FOs with attrition and not backfilling the next 18 months. Captains will be over staffed and they will need to decide how to deal with that. I assume JBLU will have the ultimate say on this, once merger is approved
2025-20
Furloughs will be tricky compared to normal industry furloughs in the past.
Normally it’s “we aren’t making money, we are shrinking, we need less pilots”
With the engines, the draw down is slower and measured and they have to factor in attrition without backfilling with new hires.
My guess is they will be fine on FOs with attrition and not backfilling the next 18 months. Captains will be over staffed and they will need to decide how to deal with that. I assume JBLU will have the ultimate say on this, once merger is approved
11-16-2023, 06:02 AM
#3475
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Position: Student of the game
Posts: 1,026
11-16-2023, 07:45 AM
#3476
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2022
Posts: 162
Back to attrition.
Pace of attrition at JB has significantly picked up again in November to the tune of almost 2 a day. I’ll be interested in your quarterly numbers to see if it’s the same at NK.
I thought there might be a risk of furlough for you guys with the PW issue, but if you are still seeing comparable ratios to our losses as before, then I doubt the company would need any.
What are the NK retirement numbers for 2024/25?
JB-
2023-7
2024- 63
2025 - 66
Pace of attrition at JB has significantly picked up again in November to the tune of almost 2 a day. I’ll be interested in your quarterly numbers to see if it’s the same at NK.
I thought there might be a risk of furlough for you guys with the PW issue, but if you are still seeing comparable ratios to our losses as before, then I doubt the company would need any.
What are the NK retirement numbers for 2024/25?
JB-
2023-7
2024- 63
2025 - 66
[img]
[/img]
11-16-2023, 08:22 AM
#3477
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2019
Position: baller, shot caller
Posts: 1,010
I’m also wondering how many JR captains will be tempted by the new United “direct entry” ish - captain. Before that, as a captain, it would be hard to leave spirit. But with a little turmoil, the idea of a legacy in the back of your mind, and knowing you have a shot at a captain bid In training, that may coerce some of the more junior captains to go also. Interesting dynamics here for sure
Our junior CA bases are in Florida, where virtually everone lives within driving distance. United has only one base in FL and I would imagine MCO 737 CA looks like a retirement home with decades of seniority requried to hold even reserve.
11-16-2023, 11:06 AM
#3478
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Posts: 770
I’m also wondering how many JR captains will be tempted by the new United “direct entry” ish - captain. Before that, as a captain, it would be hard to leave spirit. But with a little turmoil, the idea of a legacy in the back of your mind, and knowing you have a shot at a captain bid In training, that may coerce some of the more junior captains to go also. Interesting dynamics here for sure
11-16-2023, 11:25 AM
#3479
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Position: Captain
Posts: 1,561
Probaby not very many if I had to guess. Maybe a handful of junior CAs who commute to FLL from flyover country.
Our junior CA bases are in Florida, where virtually everone lives within driving distance. United has only one base in FL and I would imagine MCO 737 CA looks like a retirement home with decades of seniority requried to hold even reserve.
Our junior CA bases are in Florida, where virtually everone lives within driving distance. United has only one base in FL and I would imagine MCO 737 CA looks like a retirement home with decades of seniority requried to hold even reserve.
4 years most junior captain at MCO for United
11-16-2023, 01:51 PM
#3480
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2017
Posts: 2,351
It's all personal numbers game. UA has just under 17,000 pilots, with 6000 to retire over the next 10 years. Even with growth to 18-20k pilots in that time you are still on the wrong side of 50% seniority at the ten year mark. That's ten years of anything better than junior narrow body reserve at the least desirable base going to anyone senior to you. The next ten years the retirements are half that number, and drops off precipitously from there, putting you somewhere between 35-40% after 20 years depending if UA can hit the 24,000 mark they have stated. Solid narrow body line holding captain in base of choice perhaps, but that's not going to put you in the gravy line widebody skipper shoes. At that point most of the pilots senior to you are likely younger, and that's twenty years of no significant industry/economic events.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
