Attrition
08-10-2022, 07:34 AM
#1762
It's 5 o'clock somewhere
Joined APC: Oct 2020
Posts: 2,154
I have said this before, but it stands repeating. The ULCC model seems to plateau as the number of planes/flights/personal increase, eventually becoming unsustainable without changing the structure. You just can't run an airline after a certain size on a shoestring budget with all third party vendors. The whole economy of scale things plays out here.
Obviously the only solution to this problem outside of being bought out is to invest more into your infrastructure, but that means raising prices, which means you are no longer nearly as competitive as SWA/AA/UA etc on those same routes, especially given the extra services and comfort your competitors offer, not to mention route structure and frequency. ULCC works great at smaller sizes and on certain routes, but once you start to compete against more traditional carriers and you grow to do so, things start to unravel. Just my opinion
Obviously the only solution to this problem outside of being bought out is to invest more into your infrastructure, but that means raising prices, which means you are no longer nearly as competitive as SWA/AA/UA etc on those same routes, especially given the extra services and comfort your competitors offer, not to mention route structure and frequency. ULCC works great at smaller sizes and on certain routes, but once you start to compete against more traditional carriers and you grow to do so, things start to unravel. Just my opinion
08-10-2022, 12:31 PM
#1763
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Position: A320 CA
Posts: 711
Marg is certainly correct that Allegiant is having a hard time growing because of labor (pilot and flight attendant) shortages. Flight attendants are not paid any where near a career type wage and pilots are grossly underpaid. The QOL is awesome for some, but can be dreadful for others. The disparity in QOL at allegiant is immense because of our small bases and unusual Florida base setup.
Just my two cents...
08-10-2022, 04:11 PM
#1764
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 461
I think you will see consolidation within the ULCCs. The pricing and business model of high-utilization ULCCs is proven in Europe (Ryan Air, Easy Jet, Wizz, etc.) and is a power. The LCC model is dominant in the US because its basically WN and then some others. WN is getting bloated and their prices are rarely the lowest, so I do think that there is still a demand for ULCC in the US but I doubt it will ever get to the market size of Ryan Air and Easy Jet because Southwest already assumed that vacuum.
Marg is certainly correct that Allegiant is having a hard time growing because of labor (pilot and flight attendant) shortages. Flight attendants are not paid any where near a career type wage and pilots are grossly underpaid. The QOL is awesome for some, but can be dreadful for others. The disparity in QOL at allegiant is immense because of our small bases and unusual Florida base setup.
Just my two cents...
Marg is certainly correct that Allegiant is having a hard time growing because of labor (pilot and flight attendant) shortages. Flight attendants are not paid any where near a career type wage and pilots are grossly underpaid. The QOL is awesome for some, but can be dreadful for others. The disparity in QOL at allegiant is immense because of our small bases and unusual Florida base setup.
Just my two cents...
08-10-2022, 04:45 PM
#1765
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 1,035
Yep and why do you think indigo will never pay anything to pilots here? They are high on the low compensation they pay their pilots in the rest of the world. Wizz for example in Europe.
08-10-2022, 04:59 PM
#1766
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 461
08-10-2022, 06:34 PM
#1767
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Position: A320 CA
Posts: 711
The customer facing operation (free bags vs a la cart) has differences but Southwest captured the domestic market when it was significantly lower fares than the legacies.
O’Leary has talked at length about how Southwest was a model in creating Ryan Air.
08-10-2022, 06:50 PM
#1768
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 461
Ryan Air is the Southwest of Europe. Single fleet type. Secondary airports. High utilization. Hedge on fuel. Point to point flying. There definitely differences, but the similarities are crucial to their success.
The customer facing operation (free bags vs a la cart) has differences but Southwest captured the domestic market when it was significantly lower fares than the legacies.
O’Leary has talked at length about how Southwest was a model in creating Ryan Air.
The customer facing operation (free bags vs a la cart) has differences but Southwest captured the domestic market when it was significantly lower fares than the legacies.
O’Leary has talked at length about how Southwest was a model in creating Ryan Air.
My point was the majority of US pilots will not agree to ever work for Ryan Air, Wizz or Easy Jet wages… hopefully. Which doesn’t benefit the ulcc model.
08-11-2022, 06:59 AM
#1769
It's 5 o'clock somewhere
Joined APC: Oct 2020
Posts: 2,154
Ryan Air is the Southwest of Europe. Single fleet type. Secondary airports. High utilization. Hedge on fuel. Point to point flying. There definitely differences, but the similarities are crucial to their success.
The customer facing operation (free bags vs a la cart) has differences but Southwest captured the domestic market when it was significantly lower fares than the legacies.
O’Leary has talked at length about how Southwest was a model in creating Ryan Air.
The customer facing operation (free bags vs a la cart) has differences but Southwest captured the domestic market when it was significantly lower fares than the legacies.
O’Leary has talked at length about how Southwest was a model in creating Ryan Air.
If Europe has a SWA, it's EasyJet.
I think you will see consolidation within the ULCCs. The pricing and business model of high-utilization ULCCs is proven in Europe (Ryan Air, Easy Jet, Wizz, etc.) and is a power. The LCC model is dominant in the US because its basically WN and then some others. WN is getting bloated and their prices are rarely the lowest, so I do think that there is still a demand for ULCC in the US but I doubt it will ever get to the market size of Ryan Air and Easy Jet because Southwest already assumed that vacuum.
Second, how much more consolidation is possible? JB is taking NK and JB is hardly even an LCC anymore. NK and their business model will go away. F9 seems poised to inherit the market sector and take advantage of the vacuum. SWA may punch down too. Allegiant is a crap show and the best merger they could hope for is an Avelo/Breeze/SCA thing. Probably not even in the drivers seat. Seems to me like the consolidation just happened and not much more that makes a difference is possible. Frontier is in a really good place right now. Alaska is going to have to do something though.
08-11-2022, 08:36 PM
#1770
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2019
Position: Yes
Posts: 159
No they're not. Ryanair the allegiant of Europe. Charge for everything. Tell the customers to shove it once you have their money. Pay the crew peanuts. Massively anti-labor unions. Unfortunately for Maury, he isn't good at copying their model, but not because he hasn't tried.
If Europe has a SWA, it's EasyJet.
First of all SWA is not a ULCC. It's a legacy with an unconventional business model.
Second, how much more consolidation is possible? JB is taking NK and JB is hardly even an LCC anymore. NK and their business model will go away. F9 seems poised to inherit the market sector and take advantage of the vacuum. SWA may punch down too. Allegiant is a crap show and the best merger they could hope for is an Avelo/Breeze/SCA thing. Probably not even in the drivers seat. Seems to me like the consolidation just happened and not much more that makes a difference is possible. Frontier is in a really good place right now. Alaska is going to have to do something though.
If Europe has a SWA, it's EasyJet.
First of all SWA is not a ULCC. It's a legacy with an unconventional business model.
Second, how much more consolidation is possible? JB is taking NK and JB is hardly even an LCC anymore. NK and their business model will go away. F9 seems poised to inherit the market sector and take advantage of the vacuum. SWA may punch down too. Allegiant is a crap show and the best merger they could hope for is an Avelo/Breeze/SCA thing. Probably not even in the drivers seat. Seems to me like the consolidation just happened and not much more that makes a difference is possible. Frontier is in a really good place right now. Alaska is going to have to do something though.
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