Sheg0theD

I could see this happening. Send to many warnings out and see how the next two months play out. I would like for ALPA to stop sending us BS emails and give us some hard numbers...

For example..

Hey guys this is what the company is thinking.. Would be nice to know who all needs to start putting feelers out to support our families.

I know this crap is fluid and changes daily. Still would be nice to have some communication that wasn’t fluff.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

CAirBear

My base chat had a rundown of JM talking to a RGS last week. He said the same things you always hear in the Town Halls, but he mentioned SB 2021 numerous times. It certainly sounded like/implied that was going to be a big bench mark, long term, what happens here regarding size.

Someone posted an article above a couple days ago. Granted it was from SeekingAlpha, but none the less:

If they really did secure $730 million in CAREs loans and we now have $1.7B or so liquid and cash burn down to $2 million a day, I just don’t see how furloughing moves the needle any significant amount, if you want these guys for end of Nov, December and SB 21.

Someone did the math on another thread here. Furloughing bottom 500 and downgrading 200 from Oct 1 to Summer 2021 only saved $40 Million. There is also costs and time to bring them back online as well.

Maybe next trip I’ll figure out the cost savings for 1, 2 and 3 month VILs for 250, 500 in each seat.

Stryker172

Thank you yes thats what I meant.

FNGFO

The math has already been done. 1000 VILs split evenly between seats saves about 1.5 days worth of total company payroll per month.

So 3 months at 250 VILs in still about 1 day of savings. 500 for 3 months is a little over two days. It’s basically bringing a cork to the Titanic’s damage control party. It’s not nothing, but it’s close. That number gets larger as other crew and staff see their pay reduced or are shed, but it’s just not much of a difference maker.

senecacaptain

using the numbers printed in the media, the Big-3 numbers are basically 16-18% of the total pilot force got WARN notices.

whether that translates into actual furloughs? Don't know. How many pilots exist at Spirit? 2600?

"700" seems high. 18% of 2600 is 468. Round it to 500 for nice even number.

The Big-3 really don't "save" any money either by furloughing junior people. But what do I know.

I say 700 is too high and IF Spirit furloughs, we see voluntary leaves/etc. offered first. Then maybe 500 ballpark, MAYBE.

The Big-3 have huge costs with multi-aircraft fleets, huge footprints, infrastructure costs, etc. that Spirit does not have. Big-3 sent WARN notices to 18% of their Pilot group, with those costs in the backdrop.

my 2 cents

Conquistador27

Got ya, that makes more sense.

Meep

I’m surprised they haven’t mentioned long term VILs. With a lot of schools going to the hybrid model, there will need to be someone at home. Feel like quite a few people would take it and a good way to cut down payroll for senior CA’s. A CA going from 72hrs to 50hrs is way more than what a year one FO makes at guarantee and almost what a year 2 FO makes.

senecacaptain

seems like "current industry practice" is offer the voluntary leaves first. aka Big-3, SWA, etc.

we have not seen that yet. when we do, then something is brewing

AllOva736

not sure if I get your math but a CA ( say 4th year ) at 50 hours is about 10,500 per month. That would be about 96 hours on second year pay, not less than guarantee.

Excargodog

The not-great first year pay cuts both ways. Doesn’t cost much to keep those guys/gals and not much gain furloughing them. A nine month furlough of the bottom 500 combined with a downgrade of the bottom 250 captains would save maybe $40 million minus training churn (and training churn for single type fleets is trivial compared to that if the Big Three). That ain’t chump change, but it isn’t huge money either compared to the current liquidity. A bottom 20% cut on a nine type rating fleet is a HUGE cost due to the training churn and the CASM takes a severe hit as well.


With UA and DAL pulling back, gates will be open everywhere. The legal fight over the old SWA gates at EWR is probably now moot.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/...t-departs.aspx

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/...t-departs.aspx


What I imagine NK management wants to do is lead turn the recovery to capture many of those open gates and use NKs lower CASM to increase domestic market share. At least that seems to be SWA management’s intention with their single type fleet. How many pilots they are going to need to implement that strategy and how soon - I imagine - they are wondering themselves. If they play their cards right their greater agility can win the post COVID expansion. Exactly how to play those cards...now THAT is the question.