Balker

Of course he does. I was referring to SAVE’s recent price divergence from other US carriers. When you have a company that is betting that the rest are wrong in their predictions, it’s natural that investors will start feeling wary. Maybe Christie knows it’s going to be bad but he’s reluctant to make large cuts just yet. Maybe he’s extremely talented and he’ll outmaneuver the big 3.

As far as what measures should we take, I was just stating the obvious ones. We can’t see the data they have. I’m sure upper management is working round the clock.

flyingpuma1

I agree. It seems like amateur hour around here compared to other airlines, unless of course it’s supposed to be like that and they are trying to figure out how much money they can take before we go under. But we are still running classes


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Chimpy

Well..... this hit the legacies a tad sooner. (Intl lockdown) They also have a much older group, multiple fleets etc. They have a lot more variables.....

what is SWA doing, ? How much capacity have they cut?

Excargodog

God yes. Can you even imagine the problems at Delta? Twelve different type ratings and the most senior people flying the international widebodies that are now parked. Every guy they furlough off the bottom starts a domino effect in training, as that guy is replaced by someone no longer senior enough to hold his aircraft or seat, who is then replaced by someone no longer senior enough to hold his aircraft or seat, etc., etc, etc...

You could very easily generate requirements for a half dozen type rating trainings from a single furlough because no way is the seniority going to neatly line up with the aircraft still flying. And then the seat changes as junior captains default to FO in aircraft that they actually may never have flown before.

it isn’t like everybody has the same type rating and every aircraft is that type and each person is nearly interchangeable.

Balker

Southwest said it will "soon" reduce flight schedules, which will reduce capacity by at least 20% from April 14 to June 5, and will continue to evaluate further flight schedule cuts, it said. Southwest is implementing a hiring freeze and offering voluntary leave, "aggressively evaluating all capital spending, discretionary spending, and all non-essential costs for near-term cost reductions or deferrals," it said.

Additionally, today they borrowed $1.0B to improve liquidity, even though they already had around 3B on hand.

If SWA cuts “at least” 20% capacity, I wouldn’t expect us to do any better....

FNGFO

SAVE will sail through this if we manage no worse than 20-30% loss of capacity over 2-3 months IMOHO.

I suspect we might see 50%, but the real question is how much capacity do we need to realize to dog paddle and hang on until sanity returns?

Trowserchilli

This article sheds some light on things.

https://leehamnews.com/2020/03/16/us...-SonUrOmgB3Pq4

Lobaeux

this is exactly why SAVE is getting hammered

Balker

I can see the benefit of halting all flights along with a nationwide lockdown for 2-4 weeks. Now, suspending all flights with no lockdown won’t stop the virus (=fear) and only hurt the industry.

Our monthly employee pay and benefits it’s under 100M. If the company can defer other financial obligations (maybe backed by a government loan), we could reasonably manage in case of a full month shutdown and limp out of it on a 20-30% reduced schedule for 2-3 months.

Excargodog