Upgrade
10-22-2019, 08:56 PM
#81
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,603
Fair enough. It is base and RAP specific for sure. Used once every block doesn’t necessarily mean used every day.
10-22-2019, 08:59 PM
#82
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Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,603
10-23-2019, 01:42 PM
#85
Line holder
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: On the bus,seat 0A
Posts: 3,330
So with the new order we will have 145 by end of this year, and 293 by the end of 2027 before any lease returns. Without any additional options exercised or second-hand purchases/leases we are looking at an 8 year upgrade for a 2020 new hire. This adds only about 17/yr between 22 & 27 compared to 25/yr for 20&21....
Editing because read numbers wrong on IR
Editing because read numbers wrong on IR
Last edited by symbian simian; 10-23-2019 at 02:24 PM.
10-23-2019, 02:18 PM
#87
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2017
Posts: 193
So with the new order we will have 145 by end of this year, and 293 by the end of 2027 before any lease returns. Without any additional options exercised or second-hand purchases/leases we are looking at an 8 year upgrade for a 2020 new hire. This adds only about 12/yr, compared to 25/yr for 20&21....
10-23-2019, 02:32 PM
#89
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2019
Posts: 988
So with the new order we will have 145 by end of this year, and 293 by the end of 2027 before any lease returns. Without any additional options exercised or second-hand purchases/leases we are looking at an 8 year upgrade for a 2020 new hire. This adds only about 17/yr between 22 & 27 compared to 25/yr for 20&21....
Editing because read numbers wrong on IR
Editing because read numbers wrong on IR
Your assuming nobody by passes. Right now a Summer new hire is roughly 800 numbers from the most junior captain. If we continue to upgrade 25-30 a month that’s under 3 years.
10-23-2019, 03:05 PM
#90
Line holder
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: On the bus,seat 0A
Posts: 3,330
Before PBS upgrade was really steady at 55%RS. TBH haven’t delved really deep, but with the reserve QOL, it’s definitely possible more people bypass. So WAG upgrade drops to 60%RS, so a Jan 2022 new hire (#2400) needs 1600 below him, @ 16/aircraft = 100 deliveries, so end of 2027 = 6 years.
Pilots hired this summer numbers:
May hire #2150, needs another 1433, so 90 deliveries.
58 till 4Q21, @17/yr 2 more years, so 4 1/2 years.
You’re assuming people bypass forever, a good size of those 30/month upgrades go to pilots above the plug.
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