bmxandjets

What will it be with a JetBlue or Spirit merger....or finally getting codeshare in the contract..?

e6bpilot

I pray that I never find out as far as the merger goes, although the only reason that the AirTran merger meant longer upgrades here is that we subleased all the planes in the merger to Delta, who is currently using them on the same routes that we fly. Genius.
SWAPA has come a long way in a short time, and I truly trust that they are doing the right thing with codeshare. We own it and I don't think they are going to squander it for a few bucks.

ZapBrannigan

Two things generate upgrades: retirements and new airplanes (some will argue block hour growth because new airplanes could represent an ASM increase that is "growth" without upgrades). We have been hiring for a while but the fleet count is relatively unchanged as the 300/500 are replaced by used 700s and new 800s. Once the classics are gone, it will take about 70 new airplanes per year (or the equivalent block hours) to represent 1% growth. I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but I think people need to have realistic expectations when it comes to upgrades. The timeline is so long here that any guesses become statistically problematic because macro events will influence growth. The natural cycle of the economy, oil prices, merger and acquisition, new aircraft models etc. 15 years is a lifetime in this business. I don't see the kind of dramatic growth long term that will result in an upgrade time of less than about 10-12 years, but I've also worked for enough airlines to realize that anything is possible. Personally I'm holding out for Delta buying us!

e6bpilot

I will concede that those two things do generate upgrades, but as the domestic well gets tapped out, longer stage lengths and more complex flying is going to also generate upgrades. The less efficient we get the more pilots and therefore captains we will need. Also, as our workforce ages and the incentive to retire with 1600 in the sick bank remains flattish, you are going to need more captains.
I guess what I am saying is it is a lot more complicated than seats and retirements.
I am very realistic about the whole thing and I fully expect 15 years as a realistic number, but so did the guys upgrading now.

Woodbourne23

The guys upgrading now were expecting a 6 year upgrade. Air tran was a net loss as far as fleet growth

rgr331

Wouldn't 70 aircraft per year represent 10% growth?

I'm counting 720 aircraft which includes 107 -300s.

1% growth would require 7 new aircraft per year or the equivalent block hours.

ZapBrannigan

Whoops math in public. My bad.

Fats Schindee

My times were similar, just a bit higher on the TPIC

8800 TT (mostly 121 jet)
4600 TPIC
10.5 at regional
4-yr degree (2)
1 type
Former instructor (though let it lapse)
No 737 type/No LCA

Interview invite February
Interview April
Start class 6/1



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Smooth at FL450

See ya tomorrow night!

Pilot2468

Any updates on upcoming class dates? I know about June 1st and July 6th, any others?