full of luv

The problem is that every new MAX is not necessarily growth if they park a 300 at the same time.
Also, remember if they swap a 300 for an 800 is that not at least 2% growth right there without hiring one single employee?
The best part of starting your career with starry eyes is that your excited to be hired and ready to kick arse.... the bad part is that it can be a painful slide into reality, especially if the economy sputters or oil spikes or both.
Some on APC have also speculated that SWA has a 787 order ready to go in order to enter the long-range international market.
I guess we'll see how it all plays out, and hopefully to the slow steady growth line that makes everyone happy over time.

e6bpilot

As someone who has sat at 99 percent for over a year, I desperately want growth at this company. That being said, I wholly agree with Thunder and Luv that replacing 300s with 800s isn't growth in a pilot sense. I am sure they will continue to buy 700s and probably some 800s on the used market, but other than slow growth and some retirements, I doubt there will be anything explosive going on around here.
I am glad to see that hiring has cranked back up and things are looking up for those who have been sitting reserve for the last year or so. If I were a new hire who was under the age of 40, though, I would seriously consider my options when choosing an employer.

shoelu

Looking at this purely from a feasibility standpoint, here is what we have:

Effective August 2015
737-300 = 119
737-500 = 12
737-700 = 461
737-800 = 94
Total = 697

Here are all the orders and options on the books for SWA:

Firm orders through 2024
737-700 = 56
737-800 = 19
737-MAX = 200
Total = 275

If you want to look at all orders and options on the books here are the possibilities. I think most will agree that by the end of this time-frame (2024) the classic fleet will be retired. So, removing 131 classics will only leave 144 of those 275 firm orders as possible growth aircraft.

Now, if you want to add in the 226 options to those figures, there is a possibility of 370 growth aircraft available through firm orders and options through 2024.

Adding 300 to the fleet IN 5 YEARS would be a 43% increase in airframes. A 43% increase would equate to a little over 9% airframe growth over the next five years and although that has been done in the past I find it absolutely improbable.

Firm Orders through 2021
2016 - 46
2017 - 41
2018 - 35
2019 - 25
2020 - 36
2021 - 33
2021 options - 18
Total including 2021 options = 234

Assuming retiring zero classics in the next five years, the company would still need to acquire 66 used aircraft to reach 300 additional aircraft in 5 years.

So, although it appears potentially possible to add 300 aircraft in 5 years, the real question is it really probable. The resounding opinion from myself and most others is there is approximately zero percent chance this will actually happen. Gary Kelly has stated a 2% airframe growth in 2016. Presumably 2-3% growth over the next 5 years would be optimistic as well as realistic. 9% growth over the next 5 years seems absolutely ludicrous at this point but I would sure love to see it none the less.

Duke Beamer

I don't disagree with Thunder, LUV, E6, etc... there has to be some walk behind the talk. I don't know the exact details of their plan, I just know what they told me and what they're general plan is, to include their hiring numbers and information. Which is why I posted in the SWA Hiring Info thread in the first place.

Details Matter. Acknowledged. You're right, they do. I don't feel comfortable giving his name out over a chat room. But I'm not a troll and I don't make stuff up for fun. He is a senior pilot in a leadership position that works at DAL. He didn't discuss in great depth of the organic vs non-organic growth, he didn't tell me what the next big change will be. He told me the retirements for each year for the next 10 years, plus the forecasted early retirements for those years. He told me the sim building progression and what impact that will have on training. He told me that there will be max effort hiring for 2016 and 2017.

Appreciated the insight from the more experienced SWA employees in the crowd, it only makes me smarter. My goal wasn't to disagree with anything, it was to merely quote what I heard from a person in a credible position to speak on Southwest Hiring Information. It's all good, positive news can be refreshing to read on this site. That was my only intention.

OB Pilot

Duke,
Thanks for bringing a little positivity to this thread, there are some not very positive things going on at SWA right now. Especially with anyone hired after around 2006, not a lot of optimism toward anything to do with the company and fleet and growth plans. Please don't take anything too negatively from anyone here on this forum. Things are probably not as good as you were told during your interview and not as bad as some may say on this website. If you really do want to work here then I hope you get some good news soon and are sitting in class in Dallas soon after. I think you'll be happy to work here even if it's not the same place as it used to be, but really no airline is anymore, not one. Good luck.

OB

shoelu

I don't think anyone is accusing you of making anything up, at least I know I am not! I was only looking at the statements you heard from a "feasibility" standpoint. While it is actually probably feasible, I simply don't see it as probable.

The statements of management to potential new hires is always by far and away the absolute best case scenario.

Duke Beamer

Thanks OB. And thanks Shoelu. I don't think anyone intended to call me out for being a liar. I don't spend much time fighting with Internet Chat Room warriors anyway, so I wouldn't be upset if they did. I like the fact that my post caused smart people like yourself to show others the feasibility of such growth by posting numbers to verify the likelihood or unlikelihood of such things to occur. I also like to think that by posting the verified/confirmed hiring numbers for 2015/2016, it would give some of the more experienced SWA pilots some good info on hiring that they may have not gotten recently. If that came across as unicorns eating fairy dust and farting out rainbows...then I apologize. I'm excited for the opportunity I have been given so far and hopefully I'll be in Dallas soon learning how to be humbled in the infamous -300. I don't know what round dials look like anymore...

shoelu

Good luck Duke. Although every airline has positive and negatives, the positives still far outweigh the negatives at SWA in my opinion.

Sr. Barco

Duke-

This is the most positive exchange in APC history! Impressive. Seriously though no one is saying you made it all up. Those are tall numbers you put out so some serious fact checking was warranted is all. The unnamed head honcho in flight ops was feeding you koolaid. How'd you like your first taste?! Lol. It's best you start refining your koolaid filter early if you're going to work here.

Like others have said SWA is still a great place to work. Imagine you live in Bellair and you've had a wonderfully harmonious relationship with your immediate neighbor for a long time. One day he moves out and a real jackass moves in. Your new neighbor is unreasonable and loves to provoke you. In fact everyone in his family is difficult to get along with and they have no interest in being a good neighbor. They place no value on it. You try so hard to build the relationship you previously had but finally realize it's a fruitless endeavor. Is anyone going to feel sorry for you? Of course not because you live in Bellair! Life is still good but the daily thorn in your side from a bad neighbor and the lingering thoughts of how good life was with your previous neighbor wear on you.

That's the situation here right now.

ANGFlight81

Keep hearing rumors about an FLL base. Any truth to this?