Duke Beamer

Had the opportunity to talk to some very credible sources at SWA recently and came away with great news in regard to their hiring numbers. They are hiring 348 in 2015, with about a 2-3 week wait time after interview to hear the results of a decision board and a 4 week wait time to start training. They are hiring 618 in 2016, with a real possibility of that number going up as 2016 progresses. They're breaking ground on their new sim building this month, so that will add 10 more sims to their total number. They are forecasting the need to hire at least 3K more pilots in the next 5-10 years to meet their desired crew ratio of 11.8 pilots/jet. They're forecasting to add 300 more jets to their 700 jet fleet in the next 5 years as well.

These are all jaw-dropping numbers to me. If even half of these goals come true, that's fantastic news for guys like me trying to catch on with SWA. I figured I'd share the good news from what I consider an incredibly credible source, hopefully this keeps this thread in the positive.

Fetzervalve

What's the latest projected upgrade time? 15+ years?

Also, what are the most junior bases these days?

Duke Beamer

The most junior Capt was hired in '06. There weren't any upgrade timelines available, but I'd imagine depending on an individual's QOL vs Upgrade decision making process... it's possible to upgrade faster than 15+ years. I think today's projections for upgrades may be dated by the time they're broadcasted, due to the fleet growth, pilot hiring, and route structure growth.

Jr Bases: PHX, LAS, OAK. Everything else appears to be in uncharted territory in terms of how fast a new hire can get to that base (ie somebody getting to DAL in less than 6 months). MCO and ATL are the two most senior bases.

Woodbourne23

The most junior guy on the list as of today will reach the 50% in the following scenarios..IF we dont buy Jet Blue, Alaska or some other airline in the next 20 years:
1% growth annual 14 years
2% 13
3 % 11 years

I would argue the chances of another merger/acquisition are better than 3% organic growth every year. Getting 300 more airframes could be from buying another airline or airlines. Be very careful how you interpret "plans" from sources. If you want to upgrade in this lifetime, go to where there are retirements

Thunder1

Duke,
I love your wide-eyed enthusiasm but better come out of your low earth orbit and back to planet earth on your overly optimistic growth plans for SWA.
Your hiring numbers for 2015 and 2016 have merit but your fleet growth plans are WAY out of whack. Over the last 4 years which has been a very robust economy as we recovered from the 08-09 recession SWA has added 4 airplanes to its fleet. 4 over 4 years during record profits! 2011 fleet count 688, 2015 fleet count 692. Furthermore Gary Kelly (SWA CEO) and Tammy Romo (SWA CFO) have stated on investor conference calls, subject to SEC scrutiny, that our fleet growth plans are in the 2% per year range -- 2% of ~700 planes is 14 planes per year net growth. So, to temper your expectations a bit I'd plan on maybe 70 airplane net increase over the next 5 years. The ONLY way you get 300 airplane fleet growth over 5 years is if we buy another airline. Also, to temper your fleet growth expectations consider that we are in Section 6 contract negotiations and the new contract will include changes to our Section 1 Codeshare -- so Gary's idea of growth is through codeshare, interlining, partnerships or buying another airline; none of which will help you as a new hire in regards to upgrade time.
Sorry to pour cold water on your party but a dose of reality was in order from your "rainbows and unicorns for everyone at SWA" post.
Don't get me wrong, it is a great job with the ability to make some serious coin but don't come here as a new hire expecting explosive growth that will lead to a 5 year Captain upgrade. Cheers!

Thunder1

at6d

Ha! I had that reality dose at the regionals.

Here's a question for those that interviewed recently--what exactly do they ask for as far as logbook stuff? The gouges seem to have a few different breakdowns of what they want besides the online flight time chart.

Thanks again.

Duke Beamer

I acknowledge that I'm young, dumb, and full of...optimism. I'll take those spears chucked at me. I was born at night, but it wasn't last night. I wouldn't have posted above if I didn't hear straight from the horse's mouth at DAL about these numbers. They didn't get into the exact details of how they're getting all 300 jets, but I do know they're patiently waiting for the 737-800 MAX to show up. Do I get the impression another merger was part of the plan? Yes.

I don't think 5 years is realistic for upgrade. I think 8-10 is more likely, with 12-15 being a real possibility. That's why I phrased everything above the way I did. Because I'm not hired yet. I've never flown for SWA and I'd hate to come across foolish talking about something I don't know. My real goal was to post something positive and as close to accurate as I can from a source inside the company who told me these things in person. But I can certainly appreciate learning from those who have gone before me. Thanks for the perspective Woodbourne and Thunder, your opinions are definitely more credible in terms of flying for this company than mine.

As far as the logbook review at the interview, they want to see your company flight records (or in my case the AF Flight History Report). I included excel spreadsheets from my own personal logbook with tabbed dates for key milestones in my career thus far, ie Pilot Wings/PIC start date/1000 hrs PIC/1500 TT/2500 TT/ IP start date, etc... They'll ask the standard questions about any Q3s and violations. They'll also ask what calculations you did to come up with the total numbers indicated on your app.

Good luck.

FLY6584

I second what Duke said. We heard the same thing on our interview day and SWA's orders of the 737 Max are public knowledge and the numbers reported in articles I've seen are in line with what we were told on our interview day. Sure, things can change and mergers are a real possibility, but for the most part it seems we should see a decent amount of growth over the next 5 years.

Sr. Barco

Details matter. Can you name the horse who told you this and the circumstances under which he/she said it? Was this at an interview? How much will be organic and how much via merger/acquisition? Sorry but you have to show up with more to back up assertions of 300 airframes in the next 5 years.

Thunder1

Fly,
I'm not doubting you and Duke heard great stories of explosive growth, massive aircraft orders etc during your interview. They're supposed to tell you that to make you want to work there -- especially in this pilot hiring environment where MANY pilots are offered jobs at SWA but decline when they get the job offer from Delta, United or American.
Yes, we have large, firm orders for the 737 MAX but they will be offset by retiring 150+ 737-300s. They can say whatever they want in front of employees or job applicants but in front of a recorded microphone on a quarterly investor conference call it is an entirely different story. They can go to jail for making false statements in that environment. And the CEO/CFO comments under those terms are much more believable and realistic. Ie- expect fleet growth of 2% per year which is 14 airplanes manned at 11 pilots per plane. 154 new pilots needed every year for growth, another ~ 150 mandatory retirements per year, another 50 per year going out on medical or just burning thru their sick leave before retirement, and maybe another 50 per year early retirements and you can make a solid case for ~ 400 new hires on average for the next 5 years. In this industry anything beyond a 5 year forecast is smoke and mirrors at best.

My point I'm trying to make with you prospective new hires is this: Southwest is a great job and will continue to be so for many years to come. But 300 additional planes in 5 years is hogwash!! There is a huge difference between 14 planes a year and 60 per year. Like I said before, the ONLY way for SWA to grow that much in 5 years is through an acquisition. Best of luck and welcome aboard to all the new hires.
Cheers,
Thunder1