PotatoChip

Not trolling. You didn't answer his question. While I am 100% certain that Centerline offers a stellar interview prep, I don't think the he/she needs to spend $300 to have their questions answered.

1Seat 1Engine

***? Troll in the process of trolling. Everyone disregard.

Hiring as fast as the sims will train is the current reality. Should continue throughout next year.

Anything beyond that is fantasy, as anyone whose been in the airlines for any period of time knows.

Get in on the leading edge of this wave is the good advice.

Sr. Barco

I'm not trying to spread doom and gloom but I believe you have your facts wrong. You say the seniority list will grow 7-8% next year but I think you meant to say ASMs will grow 7-8% next year. Current there's 7,918 pilots on the seniority list including the July 22 and 29 classes. 8% of 7,918 is 633. So you are saying by the end of next year we will have 8,551 pilots on the list? At roughly 11 pilots per aircraft this means there will be a net fleet increase of 57 aircraft? I have not read this anywhere. GK stated they would grow ASMs by 7-8% next year but quickly backed off to 6% when the stock tanked on that statement.

Without a net increase in airframes the only thing getting a person to the left seat is attrition, of which we have about 200ish per year retiring. 4,000\200=20 years. This is where the 20 year upgrade estimate comes from.

I have missed RBFs in the past so please let me know if I missed the one regarding net fleet growth.

shoelu

While I agree with most of what you have said, there has been SOME good news about potential fleet growth coming in 2016.

“We are planning to grow our total fleet by 2 percent in 2016, year-over-year,” Kelly said. “With a significant number of planned retirements, we expect 2016 net aircraft additions to bring our fleet to roughly 715 aircraft by the end of 2016.

Southwest Airlines plans $1.5B share buyback, raises dividend - Dallas Business Journal

e6bpilot

Point taken and I agree that advertised fleet growth has been the standard Wall Street "capacity discipline" drumbeat.
However - we have upped our classes this year to train 320 new FOs. We have already advertised 600 for next year, a number which will almost certainly grow.
We have already added dozens of aircraft this year that were not accounted for in any previous announcements.
I don't pay attention to anything but the hiring numbers, and those numbers are what has been put out so far. I remain optimistic that, barring another merger, there will be seniority growth and an upgrade in the distant future for guys interviewing right now.
I know that our pilot retirements are slow in coming, and that does limit things.
BLOB - I hope you're wrong, but you have a point.

Sr. Barco

Thanks Shoelu. I missed that. That is good news. That's where the additional 6% ASMs are coming from I guess. Trust me, I wish the fleet was growing 12% in the next 2 years!

Sr. Barco

Yes, 20 years out is eternity in this business. A lot can and will change. Suffice to say the upgrade at swa will be longer than at the legacies because their attrition is off the chart. Upgrade isn't everything but when you have a single fleet of narrow body aircraft it objectively plays a more important part in your overall career. Looking forward it's likely wide body FO's at the legacies will once again make as much as our captains make. That changes the career evaluation process.

Please don't think I'm admonishing swa. I have zero desire to fly wide body aircraft over long distances nor do I desire to fly circadian disrupting trips on a weekly basis. I'm very happy here. However we can't ignore the fact that legacy fleets offer opportunities not offered at swa and a whole pay scale that doesn't exist here either. Throw in insane attrition and they are worthy of consideration by any new hire.

Just food for thought.

Hamza1

I don't normally post on here but I actually created an account to respond with what I was told. I flew with one of the hiring committee guys who was showing me texts from Rocky.

2015 originally planned 288 now up to 300
2016 planned 500
2017 800 or more

This individual I flew with did say (who has been doing interviews for many years) that any time the company says we will hire X amount it always usually ends up being more. He said he can count only twice where it was not more and actually less. When I asked him why so many pilots his response was I don't know. They get handed their orders from the top to hire, no one is told why. He said your guess is good as mine to why so many.

e6bpilot

I heard similar numbers from a SWAPA board member who was given them by crew planning for their long range planning purposes.

I agree with everything that everyone is saying, and we could have a financial meltdown tomorrow and I could be on the street giving out handies in a bathroom stall for milk money. I don't know where I am going with that, but I guess what I am saying is that things certainly look good from all the signs that the company is giving. You can't just decide to hire pilots one month and expect to have them on the line for whatever your plans are the following month. You need to interview, hire, train, and upgrade. It takes time.

Things, right now, look good. I think that is a fair statement.


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Super EZ E

7 year FO's are leaving SWA! No up grade is running guys off. Plus the Air Trash merger has damaged the company to the core! Guys are very unhappy and those that can leave are do so. My buddy in training department is telling me guys aren't showing up for indoc and they have had new hires leave during training for other majors. SWA will be hiring for a long time with no stopping. Word is this month they just did or will do a reshuffle of pilot resumes. SWA is very concerned they are not going to get top talent. I'd bet they're RIGHT! With Delta hiring 1100 pilots a year for the next 5 years has Fedex and SWA very concerned!!